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No free delivery service Epistemic limits of passive data collection in complex social systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

Rapid model validation via the train-test paradigm has been a key driver for the breathtaking progress in machine learning and AI. However, modern AI systems often depend on a combination of tasks and data collection practices that violate all assumptions ensuring test validity. Yet, without rigorous model validation we cannot ensure the intended outcomes of deployed AI systems, including positive social impact, nor continue to advance AI research in a scientifically sound way. In this paper, I will show that for widely considered inference settings in complex social systems the train-test paradigm does not only lack a justification but is indeed invalid for any risk estimator, including counterfactual and causal estimators, with high probability. These formal impossibility results highlight a fundamental epistemic issue, i.e., that for key tasks in modern AI we cannot know whether models are valid under current data collection practices. Importantly, this includes variants of both recommender systems and reasoning via large language models, and neither naïve scaling nor limited benchmarks are suited to address this issue. I am illustrating these results via the widely used MOVIELENS benchmark and conclude by discussing the implications of these results for AI in social systems, including possible remedies such as participatory data curation and open science.





SUPERChem: A Multimodal Reasoning Benchmark in Chemistry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current benchmarks for evaluating the chemical reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) are limited by oversimplified tasks, lack of process-level evaluation, and misalignment with expert-level chemistry skills. To address these issues, we introduce SUPERChem, a benchmark of 500 expert-curated reasoning-intensive chemistry problems, covering diverse subfields and provided in both multimodal and text-only formats. Original content and an iterative curation pipeline eliminate flawed items and mitigate data contamination. Each problem is paired with an expert-authored solution path, enabling Reasoning Path Fidelity (RPF) scoring to evaluate reasoning quality beyond final-answer accuracy. Evaluations against a human baseline of 40.3% accuracy show that even the best-performing model, GPT-5 (High), reaches only 38.5%, followed closely by Gemini 2.5 Pro (37.9%) and DeepSeek-V3.1-Think (37.3%). SUPERChem elicits multi-step, multimodal reasoning, reveals model-dependent effects of visual information, and distinguishes high-fidelity reasoners from heuristic ones. By providing a challenging benchmark and a reliable evaluation framework, SUPERChem aims to facilitate the advancement of LLMs toward expert-level chemical intelligence. The dataset of the benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ZehuaZhao/SUPERChem.


Case study of a differentiable heterogeneous multiphysics solver for a nuclear fusion application

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work presents a case study of a heterogeneous multiphysics solver from the nuclear fusion domain. At the macroscopic scale, an auto-differentiable ODE solver in JAX computes the evolution of the pulsed power circuit and bulk plasma parameters for a compressing Z Pinch. The ODE solver requires a closure for the impedance of the plasma load obtained via root-finding at every timestep, which we solve efficiently using gradient-based Newton iteration. However, incorporating non-differentiable production-grade plasma solvers like Gkeyll (a C/CUDA plasma simulation suite) into a gradient-based workflow is non-trivial. The ''Tesseract'' software addresses this challenge by providing a multi-physics differentiable abstraction layer made fully compatible with JAX (through the `tesseract_jax` adapter). This architecture ensures end-to-end differentiability while allowing seamless interchange between high-fidelity solvers (Gkeyll), neural surrogates, and analytical approximations for rapid, progressive prototyping.


Learning by Steering the Neural Dynamics: A Statistical Mechanics Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the striking successes of deep neural networks trained with gradient-based optimization, these methods differ fundamentally from their biological counterparts. This gap raises key questions about how nature achieves robust, sample-efficient learning at minimal energy costs and solves the credit-assignment problem without backpropagation. We take a step toward bridging contemporary AI and computational neuroscience by studying how neural dynamics can support fully local, distributed learning that scales to simple machine-learning benchmarks. Using tools from statistical mechanics, we identify conditions for the emergence of robust dynamical attractors in random asymmetric recurrent networks. We derive a closed-form expression for the number of fixed points as a function of self-coupling strength, and we reveal a phase transition in their structure: below a critical self-coupling, isolated fixed points coexist with exponentially many narrow clusters showing the overlap-gap property; above it, subdominant yet dense and extensive clusters appear. These fixed points become accessible, including to a simple asynchronous dynamical rule, after an algorithm-dependent self-coupling threshold. Building on this analysis, we propose a biologically plausible algorithm for supervised learning with any binary recurrent network. Inputs are mapped to fixed points of the dynamics, by relaxing under transient external stimuli and stabilizing the resulting configurations via local plasticity. We show that our algorithm can learn an entangled version of MNIST, leverages depth to develop hierarchical representations and increase hetero-association capacity, and is applicable to several architectures. Finally, we highlight the strong connection between algorithm performance and the unveiled phase transition, and we suggest a cortex-inspired alternative to self-couplings for its emergence.



Visualizing Multimodality in Combinatorial Search Landscapes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work walks through different visualization techniques for combinatorial search landscapes, focusing on multimodality. We discuss different techniques from the landscape analysis literature, and how they can be combined to provide a more comprehensive view of the search landscape. We also include examples and discuss relevant work to show how others have used these techniques in practice, based on the geometric and aesthetic elements of the Grammar of Graphics. We conclude that there is no free lunch in visualization, and provide recommendations for future work as there are several paths to continue the work in this field.