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Adaptive for Private Federated Learning with LoRA
Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), which introduces a product of two trainable lowrank matrices into frozen pre-trained weights, is widely used for efficient finetuning of language models in federated learning (FL). However, when combined with differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD), LoRA faces substantial noise amplification: DP-SGD perturbs per-sample gradients, and the matrix multiplication of the LoRA update (BA) intensifies this effect. Freezing one matrix (e.g., A) reduces the noise but restricts model expressiveness, often resulting in suboptimal adaptation. To address this, we propose FedSVD, a simple yet effective method that introduces a global reparameterization based on singular value decomposition (SVD).
Dense Associative Memory with Energy
We propose a novel energy function for Dense Associative Memory (DenseAM) networks, the log-sum-ReLU (LSR), inspired by optimal kernel density estimation. Unlike the common log-sum-exponential (LSE) function, LSR is based on the Epanechnikov kernel and enables exact memory retrieval with exponential capacity without requiring exponential separation functions. Moreover, it introduces abundant additional emergent local minima while preserving perfect pattern recovery -- a characteristic previously unseen in DenseAM literature. Empirical results show that LSR energy has significantly more local minima (memories) that have comparable log-likelihood to LSE-based models. Analysis of LSR's emergent memories on image datasets reveals a degree of creativity and novelty, hinting at this method's potential for both large-scale memory storage and generative tasks.
This Time is Different An Perspective on Time Series Foundation Models
We introduce TOTO, a time series forecasting foundation model with 151 million parameters. TOTO uses a modern decoder-only architecture coupled with architectural innovations designed to account for specific challenges found in multivariate observability time series data. TOTO's pre-training corpus is a mixture of observability data, open datasets, and synthetic data, and is 4-10 larger than those of leading time series foundation models. Additionally, we introduce BOOM, a large-scale benchmark consisting of 350 million observations across 2,807 real-world time series. For both TOTO and BOOM, we source observability data exclusively from Datadog's own telemetry and internal observability metrics. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that TOTO achieves state-of-the-art performance on both BOOM and on established general purpose time series forecasting benchmarks.
High-Performance Arithmetic Circuit Optimization via Differentiable Architecture Search
Arithmetic circuit optimization remains a fundamental challenge in modern integrated circuit design. Recent advances have cast this problem within the Learning to Optimize (L2O) paradigm, where intelligent agents autonomously explore high-performance design spaces with encouraging results. However, existing approaches predominantly target coarse-grained architectural configurations, while the crucial interconnect optimization stage is often relegated to oversimplified proxy models or a heuristic approach. This disconnect undermines design quality, leading to suboptimal solutions in the circuit topology search space. To bridge this gap, we present ARITH-DAS, a Differentiable Architecture Search framework for Arithmetic circuits. To the best of our knowledge, ARITH-DAS is the first to formulate interconnect optimization within arithmetic circuits as a differentiable edge prediction problem over a multi-relational directed acyclic graph, enabling fine-grained, proxy-free optimization at the interconnection level. We evaluate ARITH-DAS on a suite of representative arithmetic circuits, including multipliers and multiply-accumulate units. Experiments show substantial improvements over state-of-the-art L2O and conventional methods, achieving up to 27.05% gain in hypervolume of area-delay Pareto frontiers, a standard metric for evaluating multi-objective optimization performance.
Online Learning-to-Defer with Varying Experts
Duy, Dang Hoang, Montreuil, Yannis, Meyer, Maxime, Carlier, Axel, Ng, Lai Xing, Ooi, Wei Tsang
Learning-to-Defer (L2D) methods route each query either to a predictive model or to external experts. While existing work studies this problem in batch settings, real-world deployments require handling streaming data, changing expert availability, and shifting expert distribution. We introduce the first online L2D algorithm for multiclass classification with bandit feedback and a dynamically varying pool of experts. Our method achieves regret guarantees of $O((n+n_e)T^{2/3})$ in general and $O((n+n_e)\sqrt{T})$ under a low-noise condition, where $T$ is the time horizon, $n$ is the number of labels, and $n_e$ is the number of distinct experts observed across rounds. The analysis builds on novel $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bounds for the online framework, combined with first-order methods for online convex optimization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach effectively extends standard Learning-to-Defer to settings with varying expert availability and reliability.
Covariance-aware sampling for Diffusion Models
Schioppa, Andrea, Salimans, Tim
We present a covariance-aware sampler that improves the quality of pixel-space Diffusion Model (DM) sampling in the few-step regime. We hypothesize that in the few-step regime samplers fail because they rely solely on the predicted mean of the reverse distribution, while our solution explicitly models the reverse-process covariance. Our method combines Tweedie's formula to estimate the covariance with an efficient, structured Fourier-space decomposition of the covariance matrix. Implemented as an extension of DDIM, our method requires only a minimal overhead: one extra Jacobian-Vector Product (JVP) per step. We demonstrate that for pixel-based DMs, our method consistently produces superior samples compared to state-of-the-art second order samplers (Heun, DPM-Solver++) and the recent aDDIM sampler, at an identical number of function evaluations (NFE).
A Theory of Saddle Escape in Deep Nonlinear Networks
Rawal, Divit, DeWeese, Michael R.
In deep networks with small initialization, training exhibits long plateaus separated by sharp feature-acquisition transitions. Whereas shallow nonlinear networks and deep linear networks are well studied, extending these analyses to deep nonlinear networks remains challenging. We derive an exact identity for the imbalance of Frobenius norms of layer weight matrices that holds for any smooth activation and any differentiable loss and use this to classify activation functions into four universality classes. On the permutation-symmetric submanifold, the identity combines with an approximate balance law to reduce the full matrix flow to a scalar ODE, giving a critical-depth escape time law $τ_\star = Θ(\varepsilon^{-(r-2)})$ governed by the number $r$ of layers at the bottleneck scale rather than the total depth $L$. We find that this same $r-2$ exponent is recovered under He-normal initialization with $r$ bottleneck layers rescaled by $\varepsilon$, where the symmetry manifold is preserved by the flow but not attracting. We find close agreement between our theory and numerical simulations.
M-CaStLe: Uncovering Local Causal Structures in Multivariate Space-Time Gridded Data
Nichol, J. Jake, Weylandt, Michael, Fricke, G. Matthew, Perez-Carrasquilla, Jhayron, Moses, Melanie E.
Causal graph discovery for space-time systems is challenging in high-dimensional gridded data, which often has many more grid cells than temporal observations per cell. The Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe) meta-algorithm was developed to address that niche under space-time locality and stationarity assumptions, but it is currently limited to univariate analyses. In this work, we present M-CaStLe. M-CaStLe generalizes the local embedding and parent-identification phases of CaStLe to jointly model local within-variable and cross-variable space-time causal structures in gridded data. Like CaStLe, by constraining candidate parents to a constant-size space-time neighborhood and pooling spatial replicates, M-CaStLe increases effective sample size to make discovery tractable in high-dimensional settings. We further decompose the resulting multivariate stencil graph into reaction and spatial graphs to aid interpretation in complex settings. We study M-CaStLe in four settings: a multivariate space-time vector autoregression benchmark with known ground truth, an advective-diffusive-reaction partial differential equation verification problem with derived physical reference structure, an atmospheric chemistry case study in a low-temporal-sample regime, and an El Niño Southern Oscillation study on reanalysis data, identifying phase-dependent ocean--atmosphere coupling. Across these settings, M-CaStLe more accurately recovers multivariate causal structure in controlled settings and identifies important physical dynamics in real-world case studies. Overall, M-CaStLe advances causal discovery for multivariate space-time systems while retaining interpretability at the grid level.
FoReco and FoRecoML: A Unified Toolbox for Forecast Reconciliation in R
Girolimetto, Daniele, Rombouts, Jeroen, Wilms, Ines, Yang, Yangzhuoran Fin
In this paper, we introduce the forecast reconciliation packages FoReco and FoRecoML for R (RCore Team 2026). Forecast reconciliation adjusts forecasts for linearly constrained multiple time series (such as hierarchical or grouped series, or series observed at different temporal frequencies) so that they are coherent with respect to the underlying constraints, improving both accuracy and consistency for informed decision making. The contributions of the packages are threefold. First, FoReco and FoRecoML are the first to offer functionality for forecast reconciliation methods across cross-sectional, temporal and cross-temporal frameworks. Second, the packages provide a comprehensive set of forecast reconciliation approaches, including classical (e.g., top-down, bottom-up and middle-out) and regression based reconciliation methods - in FoReco - as well as non-linear reconciliation methods using machine learning - in FoRecoML. A third key contribution is their unified design, which enables easy-to-use forecast reconciliation functions built on the same philosophy, regardless of the reconciliation framework or method.