It is a standard assumption that datasets in high dimension have an internal structure which means that they in fact lie on, or near, subsets of a lower dimension. In many instances it is important to understand the real dimension of the data, hence the complexity of the dataset at hand. A great variety of dimension estimators have been developed to find the intrinsic dimension of the data but there is little guidance on how to reliably use these estimators. This survey reviews a wide range of dimension estimation methods, categorising them by the geometric information they exploit: tangential estimators which detect a local affine structure; parametric estimators which rely on dimension-dependent probability distributions; and estimators which use topological or metric invariants. The paper evaluates the performance of these methods, as well as investigating varying responses to curvature and noise. Key issues addressed include robustness to hyperparameter selection, sample size requirements, accuracy in high dimensions, precision, and performance on non-linear geometries. In identifying the best hyperparameters for benchmark datasets, overfitting is frequent, indicating that many estimators may not generalise well beyond the datasets on which they have been tested.

Simulating human clients in mental health counseling is crucial for training and evaluating counselors (both human or simulated) in a scalable manner. Nevertheless, past research on client simulation did not focus on complex conversation tasks such as mental health counseling. In these tasks, the challenge is to ensure that the client's actions (i.e., interactions with the counselor) are consistent with with its stipulated profiles and negative behavior settings. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that supports consistent client simulation for mental health counseling. Our framework tracks the mental state of a simulated client, controls its state transitions, and generates for each state behaviors consistent with the client's motivation, beliefs, preferred plan to change, and receptivity. By varying the client profile and receptivity, we demonstrate that consistent simulated clients for different counseling scenarios can be effectively created. Both our automatic and expert evaluations on the generated counseling sessions also show that our client simulation method achieves higher consistency than previous methods.

The entropic risk measure is widely used in high-stakes decision making to account for tail risks associated with an uncertain loss. With limited data, the empirical entropic risk estimator, i.e. replacing the expectation in the entropic risk measure with a sample average, underestimates the true risk. To mitigate the bias in the empirical entropic risk estimator, we propose a strongly asymptotically consistent bootstrapping procedure. The first step of the procedure involves fitting a distribution to the data, whereas the second step estimates the bias of the empirical entropic risk estimator using bootstrapping, and corrects for it. Two methods are proposed to fit a Gaussian Mixture Model to the data, a computationally intensive one that fits the distribution of empirical entropic risk, and a simpler one with a component that fits the tail of the empirical distribution. As an application of our approach, we study distributionally robust entropic risk minimization problems with type-$\infty$ Wasserstein ambiguity set and apply our bias correction to debias validation performance. Furthermore, we propose a distributionally robust optimization model for an insurance contract design problem that takes into account the correlations of losses across households. We show that choosing regularization parameters based on the cross validation methods can result in significantly higher out-of-sample risk for the insurer if the bias in validation performance is not corrected for. This improvement in performance can be explained from the observation that our methods suggest a higher (and more accurate) premium to homeowners.

We present a novel algorithm that fuses the existing convex-programming based approach with heuristic information to find optimality guarantees and near-optimal paths for the Shortest Path Problem in the Graph of Convex Sets (SPP-GCS). Our method, inspired by $A^*$, initiates a best-first-like procedure from a designated subset of vertices and iteratively expands it until further growth is neither possible nor beneficial. Traditionally, obtaining solutions with bounds for an optimization problem involves solving a relaxation, modifying the relaxed solution to a feasible one, and then comparing the two solutions to establish bounds. However, for SPP-GCS, we demonstrate that reversing this process can be more advantageous, especially with Euclidean travel costs. In other words, we initially employ $A^*$ to find a feasible solution for SPP-GCS, then solve a convex relaxation restricted to the vertices explored by $A^*$ to obtain a relaxed solution, and finally, compare the solutions to derive bounds. We present numerical results to highlight the advantages of our algorithm over the existing approach in terms of the sizes of the convex programs solved and computation time.

The Hot Stove Effect is a negativity bias resulting from the adaptive character of learning. The mechanism is that learning algorithms that pursue alternatives with positive estimated values, but avoid alternatives with negative estimated values, will correct errors of overestimation but fail to correct errors of underestimation. Here, we generalize the theory behind the Hot Stove Effect to settings in which negative estimates do not necessarily lead to avoidance but to a smaller sample size (i.e., a learner selects fewer of alternative B if B is believed to be inferior but does not entirely avoid B). We formally demonstrate that the negativity bias remains in this set-up. We also show there is a negativity bias for Bayesian learners in the sense that most such learners underestimate the expected value of an alternative.

We address the problem of estimating the difference between two probability densities. A naive approach is a two-step procedure of first estimating two densities separately and then computing their difference. However, such a two-step procedure does not necessarily work well because the first step is performed without regard to the second step and thus a small estimation error incurred in the first stage can cause a big error in the second stage. In this paper, we propose a single-shot procedure for directly estimating the density difference without separately estimating two densities. We derive a non-parametric finite-sample error bound for the proposed single-shot density-difference estimator and show that it achieves the optimal convergence rate.

This paper proposes two new algorithms for certified perception in safety-critical robotic applications. The first is a Certified Visual Odometry algorithm, which uses a RGBD camera with bounded sensor noise to construct a visual odometry estimate with provable error bounds. The second is a Certified Mapping algorithm which, using the same RGBD images, constructs a Signed Distance Field of the obstacle environment, always safely underestimating the distance to the nearest obstacle. This is required to avoid errors due to VO drift. The algorithms are demonstrated in hardware experiments, where we demonstrate both running online at 30FPS. The methods are also compared to state-of-the-art techniques for odometry and mapping.

Large language models (LLMs) have drastically changed the possible ways to design intelligent systems, shifting the focuses from massive data acquisition and new modeling training to human alignment and strategical elicitation of the full potential of existing pre-trained models. This paradigm shift, however, is not fully realized in financial sentiment analysis (FSA), due to the discriminative nature of this task and a lack of prescriptive knowledge of how to leverage generative models in such a context. This study investigates the effectiveness of the new paradigm, i.e., using LLMs without fine-tuning for FSA. Rooted in Minsky's theory of mind and emotions, a design framework with heterogeneous LLM agents is proposed. The framework instantiates specialized agents using prior domain knowledge of the types of FSA errors and reasons on the aggregated agent discussions. Comprehensive evaluation on FSA datasets show that the framework yields better accuracies, especially when the discussions are substantial. This study contributes to the design foundations and paves new avenues for LLMs-based FSA. Implications on business and management are also discussed.

We consider the problem of estimating the false-/ true-positive-rate (FPR/TPR) for a binary classification model when there are incorrect labels (label noise) in the validation set. Our motivating application is fraud prevention where accurate estimates of FPR are critical to preserving the experience for good customers, and where label noise is highly asymmetric. Existing methods seek to minimize the total error in the cleaning process - to avoid cleaning examples that are not noise, and to ensure cleaning of examples that are. This is an important measure of accuracy but insufficient to guarantee good estimates of the true FPR or TPR for a model, and we show that using the model to directly clean its own validation data leads to underestimates even if total error is low. This indicates a need for researchers to pursue methods that not only reduce total error but also seek to de-correlate cleaning error with model scores.

When factorized approximations are used for variational inference (VI), they tend to underestimate the uncertainty -- as measured in various ways -- of the distributions they are meant to approximate. We consider two popular ways to measure the uncertainty deficit of VI: (i) the degree to which it underestimates the componentwise variance, and (ii) the degree to which it underestimates the entropy. To better understand these effects, and the relationship between them, we examine an informative setting where they can be explicitly (and elegantly) analyzed: the approximation of a Gaussian,~$p$, with a dense covariance matrix, by a Gaussian,~$q$, with a diagonal covariance matrix. We prove that $q$ always underestimates both the componentwise variance and the entropy of $p$, \textit{though not necessarily to the same degree}. Moreover we demonstrate that the entropy of $q$ is determined by the trade-off of two competing forces: it is decreased by the shrinkage of its componentwise variances (our first measure of uncertainty) but it is increased by the factorized approximation which delinks the nodes in the graphical model of $p$. We study various manifestations of this trade-off, notably one where, as the dimension of the problem grows, the per-component entropy gap between $p$ and $q$ becomes vanishingly small even though $q$ underestimates every componentwise variance by a constant multiplicative factor. We also use the shrinkage-delinkage trade-off to bound the entropy gap in terms of the problem dimension and the condition number of the correlation matrix of $p$. Finally we present empirical results on both Gaussian and non-Gaussian targets, the former to validate our analysis and the latter to explore its limitations.