Quantifying the uncertainty of an object's pose estimate is essential for robust control and planning. Although pose estimation is a well-studied robotics problem, attaching statistically rigorous uncertainty is not well understood without strict distributional assumptions. We develop distribution-free pose uncertainty bounds about a given pose estimate in the monocular setting. Our pose uncertainty only requires high probability noise bounds on pixel detections of 2D semantic keypoints on a known object. This noise model induces an implicit, non-convex set of pose uncertainty constraints. Our key contribution is SLUE (S-Lemma Uncertainty Estimation), a convex program to reduce this set to a single ellipsoidal uncertainty bound that is guaranteed to contain the true object pose with high probability. SLUE solves a relaxation of the minimum volume bounding ellipsoid problem inspired by the celebrated S-lemma. It requires no initial guess of the bound's shape or size and is guaranteed to contain the true object pose with high probability. For tighter uncertainty bounds at the same confidence, we extend SLUE to a sum-of-squares relaxation hierarchy which is guaranteed to converge to the minimum volume ellipsoidal uncertainty bound for a given set of keypoint constraints. We show this pose uncertainty bound can easily be projected to independent translation and axis-angle orientation bounds. We evaluate SLUE on two pose estimation datasets and a real-world drone tracking scenario. Compared to prior work, SLUE generates substantially smaller translation bounds and competitive orientation bounds. We release code at https://github.com/MIT-SPARK/PoseUncertaintySets.

Interstellar objects (ISOs), astronomical objects not gravitationally bound to the sun, could present valuable opportunities to advance our understanding of the universe's formation and composition. In response to the unpredictable nature of their discoveries that inherently come with large and rapidly changing uncertainty in their state, this paper proposes a novel multi-spacecraft framework for locally maximizing information to be gained through ISO encounters with formal probabilistic guarantees. Given some approximated control and estimation policies for fully autonomous spacecraft operations, we first construct an ellipsoid around its terminal position, where the ISO would be located with a finite probability. The large state uncertainty of the ISO is formally handled here through the hierarchical property in stochastically contracting nonlinear systems. We then propose a method to find the terminal positions of the multiple spacecraft optimally distributed around the ellipsoid, which locally maximizes the information we can get from all the points of interest (POIs). This utilizes a probabilistic information cost function that accounts for spacecraft positions, camera specifications, and ISO position uncertainty, where the information is defined as visual data collected by cameras. Numerical simulations demonstrate the efficacy of this approach using synthetic ISO candidates generated from quasi-realistic empirical populations. Our method allows each spacecraft to optimally select its terminal state and determine the ideal number of POIs to investigate, potentially enhancing the ability to study these rare and fleeting interstellar visitors while minimizing resource utilization.

We consider the problem of learning uncertainty regions for parameter estimation problems. The regions are ellipsoids that minimize the average volumes subject to a prescribed coverage probability. As expected, under the assumption of jointly Gaussian data, we prove that the optimal ellipsoid is centered around the conditional mean and shaped as the conditional covariance matrix. In more practical cases, we propose a differentiable optimization approach for approximately computing the optimal ellipsoids using a neural network with proper calibration. Compared to existing methods, our network requires less storage and less computations in inference time, leading to accurate yet smaller ellipsoids. We demonstrate these advantages on four real-world localization datasets.