In this paper, we propose polynomial forms to represent distributions of state variables over time for discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems. This problem arises in a variety of applications in areas ranging from biology to robotics. Our approach allows us to rigorously represent the probability distribution of state variables over time, and provide guaranteed bounds on the expectations, moments and probabilities of tail events involving the state variables. First, we recall ideas from interval arithmetic, and use them to rigorously represent the state variables at time t as a function of the initial state variables and noise symbols that model the random exogenous inputs encountered before time t. Next, we show how concentration of measure inequalities can be employed to prove rigorous bounds on the tail probabilities of these state variables. We demonstrate interesting applications that demonstrate how our approach can be useful in some situations to establish mathematically guaranteed bounds that are of a different nature from those obtained through simulations with pseudo-random numbers.

Motivated by the success of ensembles for uncertainty estimation in supervised learning, we take a renewed look at how ensembles of $Q$-functions can be leveraged as the primary source of pessimism for offline reinforcement learning (RL). We begin by identifying a critical flaw in a popular algorithmic choice used by many ensemble-based RL algorithms, namely the use of shared pessimistic target values when computing each ensemble member's Bellman error. Through theoretical analyses and construction of examples in toy MDPs, we demonstrate that shared pessimistic targets can paradoxically lead to value estimates that are effectively optimistic. Given this result, we propose MSG, a practical offline RL algorithm that trains an ensemble of $Q$-functions with independently computed targets based on completely separate networks, and optimizes a policy with respect to the lower confidence bound of predicted action values. Our experiments on the popular D4RL and RL Unplugged offline RL benchmarks demonstrate that on challenging domains such as antmazes, MSG with deep ensembles surpasses highly well-tuned state-of-the-art methods by a wide margin. Additionally, through ablations on benchmarks domains, we verify the critical significance of using independently trained $Q$-functions, and study the role of ensemble size. Finally, as using separate networks per ensemble member can become computationally costly with larger neural network architectures, we investigate whether efficient ensemble approximations developed for supervised learning can be similarly effective, and demonstrate that they do not match the performance and robustness of MSG with separate networks, highlighting the need for new efforts into efficient uncertainty estimation directed at RL.

We examine an adaptive learning framework for nonatomic congestion games where the players' cost functions may be subject to exogenous fluctuations (e.g., due to disturbances in the network, variations in the traffic going through a link). In this setting, the popular multiplicative/ exponential weights algorithm enjoys an $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ equilibrium convergence rate; however, this rate is suboptimal in static environments---i.e., when the network is not subject to randomness. In this static regime, accelerated algorithms achieve an $\mathcal{O}(1/T^{2})$ convergence speed, but they fail to converge altogether in stochastic problems. To fill this gap, we propose a novel, adaptive exponential weights method---dubbed AdaWeight---that seamlessly interpolates between the $\mathcal{O}(1/T^{2})$ and $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ rates in the static and stochastic regimes respectively. Importantly, this best-of-both-worlds guarantee does not require any prior knowledge of the problem's parameters or tuning by the optimizer; in addition, the method's convergence speed depends subquadratically on the size of the network (number of vertices and edges), so it scales gracefully to large, real-life urban networks.

Safety in terms of collision avoidance for multi-robot systems is a difficult challenge under uncertainty, non-determinism, and lack of complete information. This paper aims to propose a collision avoidance method that accounts for both measurement uncertainty and motion uncertainty. In particular, we propose Probabilistic Safety Barrier Certificates (PrSBC) using Control Barrier Functions to define the space of admissible control actions that are probabilistically safe with formally provable theoretical guarantee. By formulating the chance constrained safety set into deterministic control constraints with PrSBC, the method entails minimally modifying an existing controller to determine an alternative safe controller via quadratic programming constrained to PrSBC constraints. The key advantage of the approach is that no assumptions about the form of uncertainty are required other than finite support, also enabling worst-case guarantees. We demonstrate effectiveness of the approach through experiments on realistic simulation environments.

Understanding the uncertainty in large language model (LLM) explanations is important for evaluating their faithfulness and reasoning consistency, and thus provides insights into the reliability of LLM's output regarding a question. In this work, we propose a novel framework that quantifies uncertainty in LLM explanations through a reasoning topology perspective. By designing a structural elicitation strategy, we guide the LLMs to frame the explanations of an answer into a graph topology. This process decomposes the explanations into the knowledge related sub-questions and topology-based reasoning structures, which allows us to quantify uncertainty not only at the semantic level but also from the reasoning path. It further brings convenience to assess knowledge redundancy and provide interpretable insights into the reasoning process. Our method offers a systematic way to interpret the LLM reasoning, analyze limitations, and provide guidance for enhancing robustness and faithfulness. This work pioneers the use of graph-structured uncertainty measurement in LLM explanations and demonstrates the potential of topology-based quantification.

The correct way to quantify predictive uncertainty in neural networks remains a topic of active discussion. In particular, it is unclear whether the state-of-the art entropy decomposition leads to a meaningful representation of model, or epistemic, uncertainty (EU) in the light of a debate that pits ignorance against disagreement perspectives. We aim to reconcile the conflicting viewpoints by arguing that both are valid but arise from different learning situations. Notably, we show that the presence of shortcuts is decisive for EU manifesting as disagreement.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is an immensely popular search-based framework used for decision making. It is traditionally applied to domains where a perfect simulation model of the environment is available. We study and improve MCTS in the context where the environment model is given but imperfect. We show that the discrepancy between the model and the actual environment can lead to significant performance degradation with standard MCTS. We therefore develop Uncertainty Adapted MCTS (UA-MCTS), a more robust algorithm within the MCTS framework. We estimate the transition uncertainty in the given model, and direct the search towards more certain transitions in the state space. We modify all four MCTS phases to improve the search behavior by considering these estimates. We prove, in the corrupted bandit case, that adding uncertainty information to adapt UCB leads to tighter regret bound than standard UCB. Empirically, we evaluate UA-MCTS and its individual components on the deterministic domains from the MinAtar test suite. Our results demonstrate that UA-MCTS strongly improves MCTS in the presence of model transition errors.

I am using weather data (publicly available under CC0 license), measured over a period of 10 years, from 2006 to 2016. For simplicity, I will be using only the Temperature and Humidity values and our goal would be to find how humidity varies as a function of temperature and build a model that not only predicts the behaviour but also gives us model (& data) uncertainty information. As we can see, measurements are taken every hour over a period of 10 years, resulting in over 95,000 data points. For further simplification, we re-sample the dataframe to decrease the frequency of the input data, and instead of a 1-hour interval, I chose 3 days interval, resulting in 1340 data points. We see that humidity (relative) varies between 0.4 to 1 and temperature varies between -10 to 30 degrees (Celsius) and seems like there's an inverse linear relationship.

One of the biggest confusions about "Artificial Intelligence" is that it is a very vague term. That's because Artificial Intelligence or AI is a term that was coined way back in 1955 with extreme hubris: We propose that a 2 month, 10 man study of artificial intelligence be carried out during the summer of 1956 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. The study is to proceed on the basis of the conjecture that every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it. An attempt will be made to find how to make machines use language, form abstractions, and concepts, solve kinds of problems now reserved for humans, and improve themselves. AI is over half a century old and carries with it too much baggage.

He uses statistics from Google Trends, Indeed job search terms, and Analytic Talent (DSC job database) to conclude that Python has overtaken R. One is led to ask if one group of users (say Python's) is a more active googler. Indeed, the search term analyzed is "Python Data Science." From this poll, they found out that "in 2017 Python ecosystem overtook R as the leading platform for Analytics, Data Science, Machine Learning." So, maybe Python is overtaking R. Despite this, I learned reading comments, that R is still preferred for tasks like survival analysis, time series forecasting, glmnet, Bayesian model averaging, and hierarchical modeling thanks to its well developed statistical packages.