We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) iterates with a modified learning rate schedule, has recently been shown to improve generalization in deep learning. With SWAG, we fit a Gaussian using the SWA solution as the first moment and a low rank plus diagonal covariance also derived from the SGD iterates, forming an approximate posterior distribution over neural network weights; we then sample from this Gaussian distribution to perform Bayesian model averaging. We empirically find that SWAG approximates the shape of the true posterior, in accordance with results describing the stationary distribution of SGD iterates. Moreover, we demonstrate that SWAG performs well on a wide variety of tasks, including out of sample detection, calibration, and transfer learning, in comparison to many popular alternatives including variational inference, MC dropout, KFAC Laplace, and temperature scaling.

Unknown anomaly detection in medical imaging remains a fundamental challenge due to the scarcity of labeled anomalies and the high cost of expert supervision. We introduce an unsupervised, oracle-free framework that incrementally expands a trusted set of normal samples without any anomaly labels. Starting from a small, verified seed of normal images, our method alternates between lightweight adapter updates and uncertainty-gated sample admission. A frozen pretrained vision backbone is augmented with tiny convolutional adapters, ensuring rapid domain adaptation with negligible computational overhead. Extracted embeddings are stored in a compact coreset enabling efficient k-nearest neighbor anomaly (k-NN) scoring. Safety during incremental expansion is enforced by dual probabilistic gates, a sample is admitted into the normal memory only if its distance to the existing coreset lies within a calibrated z-score threshold, and its SWAG-based epistemic uncertainty remains below a seed-calibrated bound. This mechanism prevents drift and false inclusions without relying on generative reconstruction or replay buffers. Empirically, our system steadily refines the notion of normality as unlabeled data arrive, producing substantial gains over baselines. On COVID-CXR, ROC-AUC improves from 0.9489 to 0.9982 (F1: 0.8048 to 0.9746); on Pneumonia CXR, ROC-AUC rises from 0.6834 to 0.8968; and on Brain MRI ND-5, ROC-AUC increases from 0.6041 to 0.7269 and PR-AUC from 0.7539 to 0.8211. These results highlight the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed framework for real-world, label-scarce medical imaging applications.

Machine learning potentials (MLPs) have become essential for large-scale atomistic simulations, enabling ab initio-level accuracy with computational efficiency. However, current MLPs struggle with uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability for active learning, calibration, and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We address these challenges by developing Bayesian E(3) equivariant MLPs with iterative restratification of many-body message passing. Our approach introduces the joint energy-force negative log-likelihood (NLL$_\text{JEF}$) loss function, which explicitly models uncertainty in both energies and interatomic forces, yielding superior accuracy compared to conventional NLL losses. We systematically benchmark multiple Bayesian approaches, including deep ensembles with mean-variance estimation, stochastic weight averaging Gaussian, improved variational online Newton, and laplace approximation by evaluating their performance on uncertainty prediction, OOD detection, calibration, and active learning tasks. We further demonstrate that NLL$_\text{JEF}$ facilitates efficient active learning by quantifying energy and force uncertainties. Using Bayesian active learning by disagreement (BALD), our framework outperforms random sampling and energy-uncertainty-based sampling. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian MLPs achieve competitive accuracy with state-of-the-art models while enabling uncertainty-guided active learning, OOD detection, and energy/forces calibration. This work establishes Bayesian equivariant neural networks as a powerful framework for developing uncertainty-aware MLPs for atomistic simulations at scale.

We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) iterates with a modified learning rate schedule, has recently been shown to improve generalization in deep learning. With SWAG, we fit a Gaussian using the SWA solution as the first moment and a low rank plus diagonal covariance also derived from the SGD iterates, forming an approximate posterior distribution over neural network weights; we then sample from this Gaussian distribution to perform Bayesian model averaging. We empirically find that SWAG approximates the shape of the true posterior, in accordance with results describing the stationary distribution of SGD iterates. Moreover, we demonstrate that SWAG performs well on a wide variety of tasks, including out of sample detection, calibration, and transfer learning, in comparison to many popular alternatives including variational inference, MC dropout, KFAC Laplace, and temperature scaling.

The method is almost trivially simple, scalable and easy to implement, yet the empirical evaluation shows that it performs competitively and often better than all alternatives. This is the best kind of paper! The task of representing uncertainty over model weights is highly significant -- it is debatably *the* core problem in Bayesian deep learning, with (as the authors point out) applications to calibrated decision making, out-of-sample detection, adversarial robustness, transfer learning, and more. I expect this baseline to be widely used by researchers in the field, and likely implemented by practitioners as well. The paper is well written and easy to follow.

While existing recognition approaches excel at identifying current surgical phases, they provide limited foresight into future procedural steps, restricting their intraoperative utility. Similarly, current anticipation methods are constrained to predicting short-term events or singular future occurrences, neglecting the dynamic and sequential nature of surgical workflows. To address these limitations, we propose SWAG (Surgical Workflow Anticipative Generation), a unified framework for phase recognition and long-term anticipation of surgical workflows. SWAG employs two generative decoding methods -- single-pass (SP) and auto-regressive (AR) -- to predict sequences of future surgical phases. A novel prior knowledge embedding mechanism enhances the accuracy of anticipatory predictions. The framework addresses future phase classification and remaining time regression tasks. Additionally, a regression-to-classification (R2C) method is introduced to map continuous predictions to discrete temporal segments. SWAG's performance was evaluated on the Cholec80 and AutoLaparo21 datasets. The single-pass classification model with prior knowledge embeddings (SWAG-SP\*) achieved 53.5\% accuracy in 15-minute anticipation on AutoLaparo21, while the R2C model reached 60.8\% accuracy on Cholec80. SWAG's single-pass regression approach outperformed existing methods for remaining time prediction, achieving weighted mean absolute errors of 0.32 and 0.48 minutes for 2- and 3-minute horizons, respectively. SWAG demonstrates versatility across classification and regression tasks, offering robust tools for real-time surgical workflow anticipation. By unifying recognition and anticipatory capabilities, SWAG provides actionable predictions to enhance intraoperative decision-making.

We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) iterates with a modified learning rate schedule, has recently been shown to improve generalization in deep learning. With SWAG, we fit a Gaussian using the SWA solution as the first moment and a low rank plus diagonal covariance also derived from the SGD iterates, forming an approximate posterior distribution over neural network weights; we then sample from this Gaussian distribution to perform Bayesian model averaging. We empirically find that SWAG approximates the shape of the true posterior, in accordance with results describing the stationary distribution of SGD iterates. Moreover, we demonstrate that SWAG performs well on a wide variety of tasks, including out of sample detection, calibration, and transfer learning, in comparison to many popular alternatives including variational inference, MC dropout, KFAC Laplace, and temperature scaling.

Automated long-form story generation typically employs long-context large language models (LLMs) for one-shot creation, which can produce cohesive but not necessarily engaging content. We introduce Storytelling With Action Guidance (SWAG), a novel approach to storytelling with LLMs. Our approach reduces story writing to a search problem through a two-model feedback loop: one LLM generates story content, and another auxiliary LLM is used to choose the next best "action" to steer the story's future direction. Our results show that SWAG can substantially outperform previous end-to-end story generation techniques when evaluated by GPT-4 and through human evaluation, and our SWAG pipeline using only open-source models surpasses GPT-3.5-Turbo.

Domain generalization aims to build generalized models that perform well on unseen domains when only source domains are available for model optimization. Recent studies have shown that large-scale pre-trained models can enhance domain generalization by leveraging their generalization power. However, these pre-trained models lack target task-specific knowledge yet due to discrepancies between the pre-training objectives and the target task. Although the task-specific knowledge could be learned from source domains by fine-tuning, this hurts the generalization power of pre-trained models due to gradient bias toward the source domains. To alleviate this problem, we propose a new domain generalization method that estimates unobservable gradients that reduce potential risks in unseen domains using a large-scale pre-trained model. These estimated unobservable gradients allow the pre-trained model to learn task-specific knowledge further while preserving its generalization ability by relieving the gradient bias. Our experimental results show that our method outperforms baseline methods on DomainBed, a standard benchmark in domain generalization. We also provide extensive analyses to demonstrate that the pre-trained model can learn task-specific knowledge without sacrificing its generalization power.