This paper introduces a distillation framework for an ensemble of entropy-optimal Sparse Probabilistic Approximation (eSPA) models, trained exclusively on satellite-era observational and reanalysis data to predict ENSO phase up to 24 months in advance. While eSPA ensembles yield state-of-the-art forecast skill, they are harder to interpret than individual eSPA models. We show how to compress the ensemble into a compact set of "distilled" models by aggregating the structure of only those ensemble members that make correct predictions. This process yields a single, diagnostically tractable model for each forecast lead time that preserves forecast performance while also enabling diagnostics that are impractical to implement on the full ensemble. An analysis of the regime persistence of the distilled model "superclusters", as well as cross-lead clustering consistency, shows that the discretised system accurately captures the spatiotemporal dynamics of ENSO. By considering the effective dimension of the feature importance vectors, the complexity of the input space required for correct ENSO phase prediction is shown to peak when forecasts must cross the boreal spring predictability barrier. Spatial importance maps derived from the feature importance vectors are introduced to identify where predictive information resides in each field and are shown to include known physical precursors at certain lead times. Case studies of key events are also presented, showing how fields reconstructed from distilled model centroids trace the evolution from extratropical and inter-basin precursors to the mature ENSO state. Overall, the distillation framework enables a rigorous investigation of long-range ENSO predictability that complements real-time data-driven operational forecasts.

The CyberGuy Kurt Knutsson joins'Fox & Friends' to discuss the U.S.-Saudi investment summit and the debate over regulation as artificial intelligence continues to advance. What happens when one of the world's richest companies decides to go all-in on artificial intelligence? If you're Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, it means launching superclusters so large they could rival the footprint of Manhattan. Recently, Zuckerberg unveiled plans to invest "hundreds of billions of dollars" into next-generation AI infrastructure, including some of the largest compute clusters the world has ever seen. Meta's first supercluster, called Prometheus, is slated to go live in 2026.

The authors propose a parallel algorithm for the DPMM that parallelizes a RJMCMC sampler that jumps between finite models. While the parallelization and the RJMCMC sampler are proposed together, I will separate them for the purpose of this review, in order to ask questions about each part separately. First, the RJMCMC algorithm (by which I mean, the algorithm we would have on a single cluster). Here, we use a reversible-jump MCMC algorithm to jump between finite-dimensional Dirichlet distributions. As an aside, since \bar{\pi}_{K 1} is not used in the mixture model (the mixture model is defined on the renormalized occupied K components), it would seem to make more sense to define a K-dimensional, rather than a K-1 - dimensional, Dirichlet distribution; this is valid under marginalization properties of the Dirichlet distribution, since equation 10 samples from a distribution proportional to \pi_1 ... \pi_K To jump between model dimensionalities, the authors propose a split/merge RJMCMC step that is reminiscent of that of Green and Richardson.

The paper presents the algorithm for clustering a dataset by grouping the optimal, from the point of view of the BIC criterion, number of Gaussian clusters into the optimal, from the point of view of their statistical separability, superclusters. The algorithm consists of three stages: representation of the dataset as a mixture of Gaussian distributions - clusters, which number is determined based on the minimum of the BIC criterion; using the Mahalanobis distance, to estimate the distances between the clusters and cluster sizes; combining the resulting clusters into superclusters using the DBSCAN method by finding its hyperparameter (maximum distance) providing maximum value of introduced matrix quality criterion at maximum number of superclusters. The matrix quality criterion corresponds to the proportion of statistically significant separated superclusters among all found superclusters. The algorithm has only one hyperparameter - statistical significance level, and automatically detects optimal number and shape of superclusters based of statistical hypothesis testing approach. The algorithm demonstrates a good results on test datasets in noise and noiseless situations. An essential advantage of the algorithm is its ability to predict correct supercluster for new data based on already trained clusterer and perform soft (fuzzy) clustering. The disadvantages of the algorithm are: its low speed and stochastic nature of the final clustering. It requires a sufficiently large dataset for clustering, which is typical for many statistical methods.

Kernel survival analysis models estimate individual survival distributions with the help of a kernel function, which measures the similarity between any two data points. Such a kernel function can be learned using deep kernel survival models. In this paper, we present a new deep kernel survival model called a survival kernet, which scales to large datasets in a manner that is amenable to model interpretation and also theoretical analysis. Specifically, the training data are partitioned into clusters based on a recently developed training set compression scheme for classification and regression called kernel netting that we extend to the survival analysis setting. At test time, each data point is represented as a weighted combination of these clusters, and each such cluster can be visualized. For a special case of survival kernets, we establish a finite-sample error bound on predicted survival distributions that is, up to a log factor, optimal. Whereas scalability at test time is achieved using the aforementioned kernel netting compression strategy, scalability during training is achieved by a warm-start procedure based on tree ensembles such as XGBoost and a heuristic approach to accelerating neural architecture search. On four standard survival analysis datasets of varying sizes (up to roughly 3 million data points), we show that survival kernets are highly competitive compared to various baselines tested in terms of time-dependent concordance index. Our code is available at: https://github.com/georgehc/survival-kernets

Latent variable models (LVMs) with discrete compositional latents are an important but challenging setting due to a combinatorially large number of possible configurations of the latents. A key tradeoff in modeling the posteriors over latents is between expressivity and tractable optimization. For algorithms based on expectation-maximization (EM), the E-step is often intractable without restrictive approximations to the posterior. We propose the use of GFlowNets, algorithms for sampling from an unnormalized density by learning a stochastic policy for sequential construction of samples, for this intractable E-step. By training GFlowNets to sample from the posterior over latents, we take advantage of their strengths as amortized variational inference algorithms for complex distributions over discrete structures. Our approach, GFlowNet-EM, enables the training of expressive LVMs with discrete compositional latents, as shown by experiments on non-context-free grammar induction and on images using discrete variational autoencoders (VAEs) without conditional independence enforced in the encoder.

The reconstruction of electrons and photons in CMS depends on topological clustering of the energy deposited by an incident particle in different crystals of the electromagnetic calorimeter (ECAL). These clusters are formed by aggregating neighbouring crystals according to the expected topology of an electromagnetic shower in the ECAL. The presence of upstream material (beampipe, tracker and support structures) causes electrons and photons to start showering before reaching the calorimeter. This effect, combined with the 3.8T CMS magnetic field, leads to energy being spread in several clusters around the primary one. It is essential to recover the energy contained in these satellite clusters in order to achieve the best possible energy resolution for physics analyses. Historically satellite clusters have been associated to the primary cluster using a purely topological algorithm which does not attempt to remove spurious energy deposits from additional pileup interactions (PU). The performance of this algorithm is expected to degrade during LHC Run 3 (2022+) because of the larger average PU levels and the increasing levels of noise due to the ageing of the ECAL detector. New methods are being investigated that exploit state-of-the-art deep learning architectures like Graph Neural Networks (GNN) and self-attention algorithms. These more sophisticated models improve the energy collection and are more resilient to PU and noise, helping to preserve the electron and photon energy resolution achieved during LHC Runs 1 and 2. This work will cover the challenges of training the models as well the opportunity that this new approach offers to unify the ECAL energy measurement with the particle identification steps used in the global CMS photon and electron reconstruction.

One of the main challenges in cluster analysis is estimating the true number of clusters in a dataset. This paper quantifies a notion of persistence of a clustering solution over a range of resolution scales, which is used to characterize the natural clusters and estimate the true number of clusters in a dataset. We show that this quantification of persistence is associated with evaluating the largest eigenvalue of the underlying cluster covariance matrix. Detailed experiments on a variety of standard and synthetic datasets demonstrate that the proposed persistence-based indicator outperforms the existing approaches, such as, gap-statistic method, $X$-means, $G$-means, $PG$-means, dip-means algorithms and information-theoretic method, in accurately predicting the true number of clusters. Interestingly, our method can be explained in terms of the phase-transition phenomenon in the deterministic annealing algorithm where the number of cluster centers changes (bifurcates) with respect to an annealing parameter. However, the approach suggested in this paper is independent of the choice of clustering algorithm; and can be used in conjunction with any suitable clustering algorithm.

The project, described as a "supercluster," involves "close to 120 industrial partners, world-class research institutions and other organizations" to research AI-powered supply chains. Concordia will be joining SCALE.AI, a project that "will focus on defining a global supply chain platform that will boost artificial intelligence and data science in Canada." The news was announced in a blog post on Concordia's website on Feb. 20. The project, described as a "supercluster," involves "close to 120 industrial partners, world-class research institutions and other organizations" to research AI-powered supply chains for "retail, manufacturing and infrastructure" industries in Canada. That means finding new and innovative ways to integrate transport by plane, boat, truck, and rail in supply chains through artificial intelligence so they become more efficient, according to Dr. Christophe Guy, vice-president of Research and Graduate Studies at Concordia.

CLUSTERCLUSTER: PARALLEL MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO FOR DIRICHLET PROCESS MIXTURES By Dan Lovell, Jonathan Malmaud, Ryan P. Adams and Vikash K. Mansinghka Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University The Dirichlet process (DP) is a fundamental mathematical tool for Bayesian nonparametric modeling, and is widely used in tasks such as density estimation, natural language processing, and time series modeling. Although MCMC inference methods for the DP often provide a gold standard in terms asymptotic accuracy, they can be computationally expensive and are not obviously parallelizable. We propose a reparameterization of the Dirichlet process that induces conditional independencies between the atoms that form the random measure. This conditional independence enables many of the Markov chain transition operators for DP inference to be simulated in parallel across multiple cores. Applied to mixture modeling, our approach enables the Dirichlet process to simultaneously learn clusters that describe the data and superclusters that define the granularity of parallelization. Unlike previous approaches, our technique does not require alteration of the model and leaves the true posterior distribution invariant. It also naturally lends itself to a distributed software implementation in terms of Map-Reduce, which we test in cluster configurations of over 50 machines and 100 cores.