We study language generation in the limit under bounded memory. In this task, a learner observes examples from an unknown target language one at a time and must eventually output only new valid examples. Prior work assumes access to the entire history, a strong assumption since realistic algorithms retain limited past information. Classical work in learning theory shows memory constraints dramatically alter learnability; we extend this to language generation. First, we study memoryless generators. Under a mild enumeration restriction, every countable collection of infinite languages remains generable without memory. Without this restriction, we exactly characterize when memoryless generation is possible. For finite collections, we characterize the optimal minimax density achievable by memoryless generators -- the best density guaranteed against any collection of a given size. This combinatorial bound relies on Sperner's theorem and symmetric chain decompositions. We further show that a sliding window of the last $W$ examples does not improve this worst-case density, whereas allowing it to store $b$ adaptively chosen past examples improves the achievable density for every $b \geq 1$. Finally, we revisit identification in the limit, where the learner must converge to a single correct hypothesis for the target language. We focus on its incremental variant, where the learner remembers only its previous guess. Here, although exact identification fails on a collection of just three languages, a mild relaxation requiring convergence to an ``approximate'' version of the target is achievable for every finite collection. These results show bounded memory affects these tasks differently: generation remains achievable for every countable collection, while density and identification are confined to finite collections, with guarantees weakening as the collection grows.

Offline Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) pipelines such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) train on a pre-collected preference dataset, which makes them vulnerable to preference poisoning attack. We study label flip attacks against log-linear DPO. We first illustrate that flipping one preference label induces a parameter-independent shift in the DPO gradient. Using this key property, we can then convert the targeted poisoning problem into a structured binary sparse approximation problem. To solve this problem, we develop two attack methods: Binary-Aware Lattice Attack (BAL-A) and Binary Matching Pursuit Attack (BMP-A). BAL-A embeds the binary flip selection problem into a binary-aware lattice and applies Lenstra-Lenstra-Lovász reduction and Babai's nearest plane algorithm; we provide sufficient conditions that enforce binary coefficients and recover the minimum-flip objective. BMP-A adapts binary matching pursuit to our non-normalized gradient dictionary and yields coherence-based recovery guarantees and robustness (impossibility) certificates for $K$-flip budgets. Experiments on synthetic dictionaries and the Stanford Human Preferences dataset validate the theory and highlight how dictionary geometry governs attack success.

We consider the following two-player game: using observational data, the leader chooses a prediction function for a response variable $Y$ from given covariates. The follower then reacts with an intervention on some covariates in the underlying structural causal model to maximize their own objective. The leader knows the intervention targets, but may have limited knowledge of the follower's objective. We call this setup a prediction-intervention game, a special case of a Stackelberg game. Finding an optimal strategy for the leader is generally difficult. To avoid severe performance loss, the leader may base their prediction on the causal parents of $Y$, or more generally on an invariant subset of covariates. We prove, for two common classes of follower objectives, that predictors based on the stable blanket, a specific invariant subset, are always better or as good as those based on the causal parents. We further upper bound the leader's post-intervention risk by a worst-case risk over allowed interventions and strengthen existing distribution generalization results to analyze this bound: we give sufficient conditions under which stable-blanket predictors are worst-case optimal, and show by examples that these conditions cannot in general be dropped. Finally, we discuss practical strategies for settings with known and unknown graph, and test them on simulated and real-world data.

We developed a tool for detecting domain shifts, namely subtle differences in the probability distributions of datasets. We identify these shifts using an algorithm designed to detect localised density anomalies in high-dimensional feature spaces. If an anomaly is present, we then identify the feature subspace in which the anomaly is most pronounced. This allows us to trace the domain shift to a small set of features, making the shift interpretable. Moreover, we provide a protocol for compensating domain shifts by extracting, from two unlabelled datasets, subsets of samples with no detectable residual distributional difference. We validate the framework on controlled 20-dimensional benchmarks with known ground truth, recovering both broad and localized shifts together with their supporting feature subspaces. We then apply it to healthy electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings represented by 782 features. In age- and sex-matched cohort comparisons differing in measurement-device composition, the method detects device-induced shifts, extracts representative subsets enriched in the imbalanced device components, and identifies ECG features associated with the acquisition contrast. These results suggest that density-shift detection and subspace attribution provide a practical framework for uncovering hidden cohort biases before downstream modelling.

Reconstructing precise clinical timelines is essential for modeling patient trajectories and forecasting risk in complex, heterogeneous conditions like sepsis. While unstructured clinical narratives offer semantically rich and contextually complete descriptions of a patient's course, they often lack temporal precision and contain ambiguous event timing. Conversely, structured electronic health record (EHR) data provides precise temporal anchors but misses a substantial portion of clinically meaningful events. We introduce a retrieval-augmented multimodal alignment framework that bridges this gap to improve the temporal precision of absolute clinical timelines extracted from text. Our approach formulates timeline reconstruction as a graph-based multistep process: it first extracts central anchor events from narratives to build an initial temporal scaffold, places non-central events relative to this backbone, and then calibrates the timeline using retrieved structured EHR rows as external temporal evidence. Evaluated using instruction-tuned large language models on the i2m4 benchmark spanning MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, our multimodal pipeline consistently improves absolute timestamp accuracy (AULTC) and improves temporal concordance across nearly all evaluated models over unimodal text-only reconstruction, without compromising event match rates. Furthermore, our empirical gap analysis reveals that 34.8% of text-derived events are entirely absent from tabular records, demonstrating that aligning these modalities can produce a more temporally faithful and clinically informative reconstruction of patient trajectories than either source alone.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated against a criterion from the multiple imputation (MI) literature: uncertainty should scale with the amount of missing information. We assess this criterion on SQuAD, using a controlled framework in which context availability is varied across five levels. We evaluate two answer-level uncertainty measures that can be estimated from repeated sampling: sampling-based confidence (empirical mode frequency) and response entropy. Confidence fails to reflect increasing missingness: it remains high even as accuracy collapses. Entropy, by contrast, increases with context removal, consistent with the MI analogy, and explains substantially more variance in accuracy than confidence across all evidence levels (quadratic $R^2$ gap up to 0.057). We further introduce a black-box diagnostic $ρ_R(α)$ that estimates the proportion of baseline uncertainty resolved by context level $α$, requiring only repeated sampling with and without context. These results suggest that entropy is a more responsive black-box uncertainty measure than confidence under incomplete context.

Post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI requires statistically valid, label-efficient methods, but gold-standard labels from clinician chart review are expensive. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) and active statistical inference (ASI) reduce label cost by combining a small labeled sample with abundant model predictions, but both are restricted to a single predictor, a poor fit for modern clinical pipelines that have multiple predictors of differing cost and accuracy available at inference time. We propose Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (AM-PPI), which routes each instance to a cost-appropriate predictor subset, samples gold-standard labels in proportion to the chosen subset's residual uncertainty, and reweights predictions to minimize estimator variance, all under a single deployment-time budget. AM-PPI generalizes ASI to leverage multiple predictors and extends Multiple-PPI from global per-predictor allocation to per-instance adaptive routing. We derive closed-form Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for all three decisions and prove, via biconvexity and strong duality, that the resulting fixed point is a global optimum despite the joint problem being non-jointly-convex. We establish asymptotic normality with valid coverage, minimum-variance unbiasedness within the linear-prediction augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) class, and a closed-form criterion identifying when multiple predictors help. On synthetic data and three healthcare monitoring tasks, AM-PPI produces 10 to 40 percent narrower confidence intervals (CIs) than single-predictor ASI in the budget regime where routing matters, and matches the better baseline elsewhere.

Although the Laplace approximation offers a simple route to uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, its reliance on inverting large Hessian matrices has motivated a range of computationally feasible low-dimensional or sparse approximations. A prominent class of such methods - sub-network Laplace approximations, constructs surrogates by restricting attention to a small subset of parameters. Existing approaches in this family typically rely on diagonal, layer-wise, or other architectural heuristics for subset selection, which ignore cross-parameter interactions and lack formal optimality guarantees. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the sub-network Laplace paradigm. We prove that all sub-network Laplace methods systematically underestimate the predictive variance of the full Laplace posterior, and that this bias decreases monotonically as the retained sub-matrix expands. Leveraging this insight, we propose two principled, analytically grounded sub-network Hessian approximations: \textit{Gradient-Laplace} selects parameters with the largest average squared gradients of the model output with respect to the parameters over a reference dataset; while \textit{Greedy-Laplace} iteratively refines this selection by accounting for off-diagonal interactions in the precision matrix. We establish theoretical guarantees characterizing their optimality properties and show that Gradient-Laplace provably outperforms existing heuristic approaches. Extensive numerical studies across diverse settings indicate that these methods perform strongly relative to existing benchmarks.

Constraint-based causal discovery is widely used for learning causal structures, but heavy reliance on conditional independence (CI) testing makes it computationally expensive in high-dimensional settings. To mitigate this limitation, many divide-and-conquer frameworks have been proposed, but most assume causal sufficiency, i.e., no latent variables. In this paper, we show that divide-and-conquer strategies can be theoretically generalized beyond causal sufficiency to settings with latent variables. Specifically, we propose a recursive decomposition framework, termed DiCoLa, that enables divide-and-conquer causal discovery in the presence of latent variables. It recursively decomposes the global learning task into smaller subproblems and integrates their solutions through a principled reconstruction step to recover the global structure. We theoretically establish the soundness and completeness of the proposed framework. Extensive experiments on synthetic data demonstrate that our approach significantly improves computational efficiency across a range of causal discovery algorithms, while experiments on a real-world dataset further illustrate its practical effectiveness.

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a cost-constrained subset of experiments that maximally tightens bounds on a target query. We formalize this as the max-potency problem, where epistemic potency measures the worst-case reduction in bound width guaranteed by an experiment, and show that this problem is NP-hard via a reduction from 0-1 knapsack. Building on the polynomial-programming framework of Duarte et al. (2023), we give a general procedure for evaluating epistemic potency in discrete settings. To control the super-exponential search space, we introduce two graphical pruning criteria that depend only on the causal graph and the query: a novel path-interception rule that exploits district structure to certify zero potency in linear time, and an identifiability check based on the ID algorithm. On Erdos-Renyi random graphs and 11 bnlearn benchmark networks, the two criteria together prune 50-88% of candidate experiments on average without solving a single polynomial program. For the general subset search, we show that ID-pruned experiments are combinatorially inert, yielding a super-exponential reduction in the number of subsets evaluated. We close with an end-to-end demonstration on observational NHANES data, selecting optimal experiments for estimating the effect of physical activity on diabetes.