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Boosting methods for interval-censored data with regression and classification

Bian, Yuan, Yi, Grace Y., He, Wenqing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Boosting has garnered significant interest across both machine learning and statistical communities. Traditional boosting algorithms, designed for fully observed random samples, often struggle with real-world problems, particularly with interval-censored data. This type of data is common in survival analysis and time-to-event studies where exact event times are unobserved but fall within known intervals. Effective handling of such data is crucial in fields like medical research, reliability engineering, and social sciences. In this work, we introduce novel nonparametric boosting methods for regression and classification tasks with interval-censored data. Our approaches leverage censoring unbiased transformations to adjust loss functions and impute transformed responses while maintaining model accuracy. Implemented via functional gradient descent, these methods ensure scalability and adaptability. We rigorously establish their theoretical properties, including optimality and mean squared error trade-offs. Our proposed methods not only offer a robust framework for enhancing predictive accuracy in domains where interval-censored data are common but also complement existing work, expanding the applicability of existing boosting techniques. Empirical studies demonstrate robust performance across various finite-sample scenarios, highlighting the practical utility of our approaches.


Bayesian Spline Learning for Equation Discovery of Nonlinear Dynamics with Quantified Uncertainty

Neural Information Processing Systems

Nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in science and engineering applications, but the physics of most complex systems is far from being fully understood. Discovering interpretable governing equations from measurement data can help us understand and predict the behavior of complex dynamic systems. Although extensive work has recently been done in this field, robustly distilling explicit model forms from very sparse data with considerable noise remains intractable. Moreover, quantifying and propagating the uncertainty of the identified system from noisy data is challenging, and relevant literature is still limited. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Bayesian spline learning framework to identify parsimonious governing equations of nonlinear (spatio)temporal dynamics from sparse, noisy data with quantified uncertainty. The proposed method utilizes spline basis to handle the data scarcity and measurement noise, upon which a group of derivatives can be accurately computed to form a library of candidate model terms. The equation residuals are used to inform the spline learning in a Bayesian manner, where approximate Bayesian uncertainty calibration techniques are employed to approximate posterior distributions of the trainable parameters. To promote the sparsity, an iterative sequential-threshold Bayesian learning approach is developed, using the alternative direction optimization strategy to systematically approximate L0 sparsity constraints. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on multiple nonlinear dynamical systems governed by canonical ordinary and partial differential equations, and the merit/superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with state-of-the-art methods.


CFO: Learning Continuous-Time PDE Dynamics via Flow-Matched Neural Operators

Hou, Xianglong, Huang, Xinquan, Perdikaris, Paris

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural operator surrogates for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) conventionally employ autoregressive prediction schemes, which accumulate error over long rollouts and require uniform temporal discretization. We introduce the Continuous Flow Operator (CFO), a framework that learns continuous-time PDE dynamics without the computational burden of standard continuous approaches, e.g., neural ODE. The key insight is repurposing flow matching to directly learn the right-hand side of PDEs without backpropagating through ODE solvers. CFO fits temporal splines to trajectory data, using finite-difference estimates of time derivatives at knots to construct probability paths whose velocities closely approximate the true PDE dynamics. A neural operator is then trained via flow matching to predict these analytic velocity fields. This approach is inherently time-resolution invariant: training accepts trajectories sampled on arbitrary, non-uniform time grids while inference queries solutions at any temporal resolution through ODE integration. Across four benchmarks (Lorenz, 1D Burgers, 2D diffusion-reaction, 2D shallow water), CFO demonstrates superior long-horizon stability and remarkable data efficiency. CFO trained on only 25% of irregularly subsampled time points outperforms autoregressive baselines trained on complete data, with relative error reductions up to 87%. Despite requiring numerical integration at inference, CFO achieves competitive efficiency, outperforming autoregressive baselines using only 50% of their function evaluations, while uniquely enabling reverse-time inference and arbitrary temporal querying.



GaRLILEO: Gravity-aligned Radar-Leg-Inertial Enhanced Odometry

Noh, Chiyun, Jung, Sangwoo, Kim, Hanjun, Hu, Yafei, Herlant, Laura, Kim, Ayoung

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deployment of legged robots for navigating challenging terrains (e.g., stairs, slopes, and unstructured environments) has gained increasing preference over wheel-based platforms. In such scenarios, accurate odometry estimation is a preliminary requirement for stable locomotion, localization, and mapping. Traditional proprioceptive approaches, which rely on leg kinematics sensor modalities and inertial sensing, suffer from irrepressible vertical drift caused by frequent contact impacts, foot slippage, and vibrations, particularly affected by inaccurate roll and pitch estimation. Existing methods incorporate exteroceptive sensors such as LiDAR or cameras. Further enhancement has been introduced by leveraging gravity vector estimation to add additional observations on roll and pitch, thereby increasing the accuracy of vertical pose estimation. However, these approaches tend to degrade in feature-sparse or repetitive scenes and are prone to errors from double-integrated IMU acceleration. To address these challenges, we propose GaRLILEO, a novel gravity-aligned continuous-time radar-leg-inertial odometry framework. GaRLILEO decouples velocity from the IMU by building a continuous-time ego-velocity spline from SoC radar Doppler and leg kinematics information, enabling seamless sensor fusion which mitigates odometry distortion. In addition, GaRLILEO can reliably capture accurate gravity vectors leveraging a novel soft S2-constrained gravity factor, improving vertical pose accuracy without relying on LiDAR or cameras. Evaluated on a self-collected real-world dataset with diverse indoor-outdoor trajectories, GaRLILEO demonstrates state-of-the-art accuracy, particularly in vertical odometry estimation on stairs and slopes. We open-source both our dataset and algorithm to foster further research in legged robot odometry and SLAM. https://garlileo.github.io/GaRLILEO






A Appendix

Neural Information Processing Systems

We will prove by the induction. Let's suppose that the formula holds for By the definition in Eq. 4 and the chain rule, we can get that: N In this section, we give error bounds for spline representation. In the present work, we focus on using spline for smoothing noisy data. Following [51], we have spline fitting error bounds, as following. Eq. 11 L Output: Mean estimation: θ A.4 Training Details Additional training hyper parameters used in Sec. 4 is shown in the Tab. 2. T able 2: Training Details We list additional discovery and UQ results in this section.