There is increasing use of algorithms in the health care and criminal justice systems, and corresponding increased concern with their ethical use. But perhaps a more basic issue is whether we should believe what we hear about them and what the algorithm tells us. It is illuminating to distinguish between the trustworthiness of claims made about an algorithm, and those made by an algorithm, which reveals the potential contribution of statistical science to both evaluation and'intelligent transparency.' In particular, a four-phase evaluation structure is proposed, parallel to that adopted for pharmaceuticals. When on holiday in Portugal last year, we came to rely on'Mrs.

On Wednesday the European Commission launched a blizzard of proposals and policy papers under the general umbrella of "shaping Europe's digital future". The documents released included: a report on the safety and liability implications of artificial intelligence, the internet of things and robotics; a paper outlining the EU's strategy for data; and a white paper on "excellence and trust" in artificial intelligence. In their general tenor, the documents evoke the blend of technocracy, democratic piety and ambitiousness that is the hallmark of EU communications. That said, it is also the case that in terms of doing anything to get tech companies under some kind of control, the European Commission is the only game in town. In a nice coincidence, the policy blitz came exactly 24 hours after Mark Zuckerberg, supreme leader of Facebook, accompanied by his bag-carrier – a guy called Nicholas Clegg who looked vaguely familiar – had called on the commission graciously to explain to its officials the correct way to regulate tech companies.

Five years ago, a team of researchers from Google announced a remarkable achievement in one of the world's top scientific journals, Nature. Without needing the results of a single medical check-up, they were nevertheless able to track the spread of influenza across the US. What's more, they could do it more quickly than the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Google's tracking had only a day's delay, compared with the week or more it took for the CDC to assemble a picture based on reports from doctors' surgeries. Google was faster because it was tracking the outbreak by finding a correlation between what people searched for online and whether they had flu symptoms. Not only was "Google Flu Trends" quick, accurate and cheap, it was theory-free. Google's engineers didn't bother to develop a hypothesis about what search terms – "flu symptoms" or "pharmacies near me" – might be correlated with the spread of the disease itself.

These days there's no shortage of things to keep you awake at night, wherever you stand on the political spectrum. For others it's the prospect of Brexit being thwarted. For others still, it's whether the Chinese economy will hold up, what the outcome of the US presidential election will be or the risk of artificial intelligence taking over your job. So what's the best way to handle the inevitable anxiety that goes hand-in-hand with all that uncertainty? Will Borrell studied that anxiety up close after the Brexit vote in the UK earlier this year.

In this paper, optimum decomposition of belief networks is discussed. Some methods of decomposition are examined and a new method - the method of Minimum Total Number of States (MTNS) - is proposed. The problem of optimum belief network decomposition under our framework, as under all the other frameworks, is shown to be NP-hard. According to the computational complexity analysis, an algorithm of belief network decomposition is proposed in (Wee, 1990a) based on simulated annealing.

The relationship between belief networks and relational databases is examined. Based on this analysis, a method to construct belief networks automatically from statistical relational data is proposed. A comparison between our method and other methods shows that our method has several advantages when generalization or prediction is deeded.

The paper describes aHUGIN, a tool for creating adaptive systems. aHUGIN is an extension of the HUGIN shell, and is based on the methods reported by Spiegelhalter and Lauritzen (1990a). The adaptive systems resulting from aHUGIN are able to adjust the C011ditional probabilities in the model. A short analysis of the adaptation task is given and the features of aHUGIN are described. Finally a session with experiments is reported and the results are discussed.

Causal probabilistic networks have proved to be a useful knowledge representation tool for modelling domains where causal relations in a broad sense are a natural way of relating domain objects and where uncertainty is inherited in these relations. This paper outlines an implementation the HUGIN shell--for handling a domain model expressed by a causal probabilistic network. The only topological restriction imposed on the network is that, it must not contain any directed loops. The approach is illustrated step by step by solving a. genetic breeding problem. A graph representation of the domain model is interactively created by using instances of the basic network components—nodes and arcs—as building blocks. This structure, together with the quantitative relations between nodes and their immediate causes expressed as conditional probabilities, are automatically transformed into a tree structure, a junction tree. Here a computationally efficient and conceptually simple algebra of Bayesian belief universes supports incorporation of new evidence, propagation of information, and calculation of revised beliefs in the states of the nodes in the network. Finally, as an example of a real world application, MUN1N an expert system for electromyography is discussed.IJCAI-89, Vol. 2, pp. 1080–1085