Vehicle speed prediction is crucial for intelligent transportation systems, promoting more reliable autonomous driving by accurately predicting future vehicle conditions. Due to variations in drivers' driving styles and vehicle types, speed predictions for different target vehicles may significantly differ. Existing methods may not realize personalized vehicle speed prediction while protecting drivers' data privacy. We propose a Federated learning framework with Personalized Aggregation Weights (FedPAW) to overcome these challenges. This method captures client-specific information by measuring the weighted mean squared error between the parameters of local models and global models. The server sends tailored aggregated models to clients instead of a single global model, without incurring additional computational and communication overhead for clients. To evaluate the effectiveness of FedPAW, we collected driving data in urban scenarios using the autonomous driving simulator CARLA, employing an LSTM-based Seq2Seq model with a multi-head attention mechanism to predict the future speed of target vehicles. The results demonstrate that our proposed FedPAW ranks lowest in prediction error within the time horizon of 10 seconds, with a 0.8% reduction in test MAE, compared to eleven representative benchmark baselines. The source code of FedPAW and dataset CarlaVSP are open-accessed at: https://github.com/heyuepeng/PFLlibVSP and https://pan.baidu.com/s/1qs8fxUvSPERV3C9i6pfUIw?pwd=tl3e.

We announce the release of EPT-1.5, the latest iteration in our Earth Physics Transformer (EPT) family of foundation AI earth system models. EPT-1.5 demonstrates substantial improvements over its predecessor, EPT-1. Built specifically for the European energy industry, EPT-1.5 shows remarkable performance in predicting energy-relevant variables, particularly 10m & 100m wind speed and solar radiation. Especially in wind prediction, it outperforms existing AI weather models like GraphCast, FuXi, and Pangu-Weather, as well as the leading numerical weather model, IFS HRES by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), setting a new state of the art.

Accurate traffic prediction is vital for effective traffic management during hurricane evacuation. This paper proposes a predictive modeling system that integrates Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models to capture both long-term congestion patterns and short-term speed patterns. Leveraging various input variables, including archived traffic data, spatial-temporal road network information, and hurricane forecast data, the framework is designed to address challenges posed by heterogeneous human behaviors, limited evacuation data, and hurricane event uncertainties. Deployed in a real-world traffic prediction system in Louisiana, the model achieved an 82% accuracy in predicting long-term congestion states over a 6-hour period during a 7-day hurricane-impacted duration. The short-term speed prediction model exhibited Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs) ranging from 7% to 13% across evacuation horizons from 1 to 6 hours. Evaluation results underscore the model's potential to enhance traffic management during hurricane evacuations, and real-world deployment highlights its adaptability and scalability in diverse hurricane scenarios within extensive transportation networks.

Deep learning models are widely used in traffic forecasting and have achieved state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. However, the black-box nature of those models makes the results difficult to interpret by users. This study aims to leverage an Explainable AI approach, counterfactual explanations, to enhance the explainability and usability of deep learning-based traffic forecasting models. Specifically, the goal is to elucidate relationships between various input contextual features and their corresponding predictions. We present a comprehensive framework that generates counterfactual explanations for traffic forecasting and provides usable insights through the proposed scenario-driven counterfactual explanations. The study first implements a deep learning model to predict traffic speed based on historical traffic data and contextual variables. Counterfactual explanations are then used to illuminate how alterations in these input variables affect predicted outcomes, thereby enhancing the transparency of the deep learning model. We investigated the impact of contextual features on traffic speed prediction under varying spatial and temporal conditions. The scenario-driven counterfactual explanations integrate two types of user-defined constraints, directional and weighting constraints, to tailor the search for counterfactual explanations to specific use cases. These tailored explanations benefit machine learning practitioners who aim to understand the model's learning mechanisms and domain experts who seek insights for real-world applications. The results showcase the effectiveness of counterfactual explanations in revealing traffic patterns learned by deep learning models, showing its potential for interpreting black-box deep learning models used for spatiotemporal predictions in general.

Traffic speed prediction is significant for intelligent navigation and congestion alleviation. However, making accurate predictions is challenging due to three factors: 1) traffic diffusion, i.e., the spatial and temporal causality existing between the traffic conditions of multiple neighboring roads, 2) the poor interpretability of traffic data with complicated spatio-temporal correlations, and 3) the latent pattern of traffic speed fluctuations over time, such as morning and evening rush. Jointly considering these factors, in this paper, we present a novel architecture for traffic speed prediction, called Interpretable Causal Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Network (ICST-DNET). Specifically, ICST-DENT consists of three parts, namely the Spatio-Temporal Causality Learning (STCL), Causal Graph Generation (CGG), and Speed Fluctuation Pattern Recognition (SFPR) modules. First, to model the traffic diffusion within road networks, an STCL module is proposed to capture both the temporal causality on each individual road and the spatial causality in each road pair. The CGG module is then developed based on STCL to enhance the interpretability of the traffic diffusion procedure from the temporal and spatial perspectives. Specifically, a time causality matrix is generated to explain the temporal causality between each road's historical and future traffic conditions. For spatial causality, we utilize causal graphs to visualize the diffusion process in road pairs. Finally, to adapt to traffic speed fluctuations in different scenarios, we design a personalized SFPR module to select the historical timesteps with strong influences for learning the pattern of traffic speed fluctuations. Extensive experimental results prove that ICST-DNET can outperform all existing baselines, as evidenced by the higher prediction accuracy, ability to explain causality, and adaptability to different scenarios.

A persistent challenge in the field of Intelligent Transportation Systems is to extract accurate traffic insights from geographic regions with scarce or no data coverage. To this end, we propose solutions for speed prediction using sparse GPS data points and their associated topographical and road design features. Our goal is to investigate whether we can use similarities in the terrain and infrastructure to train a machine learning model that can predict speed in regions where we lack transportation data. For this we create a Temporally Orientated Speed Dictionary Centered on Topographically Clustered Roads, which helps us to provide speed correlations to selected feature configurations. Our results show qualitative and quantitative improvement over new and standard regression methods. The presented framework provides a fresh perspective on devising strategies for missing data traffic analysis.

Wind power generated by wind has non-schedule nature due to stochastic nature of meteorological variable. Hence energy business and control of wind power generation requires prediction of wind speed (WS) from few seconds to different time steps in advance. To deal with prediction shortcomings, various WS prediction methods have been used. Predictive data mining offers variety of methods for WS predictions where artificial neural network (ANN) is one of the reliable and accurate methods. It is observed from the result of this study that ANN gives better accuracy in comparison conventional model. The accuracy of WS prediction models is found to be dependent on input parameters and architecture type algorithms utilized. So the selection of most relevant input parameters is important research area in WS predicton field. The objective of the paper is twofold: first extensive review of ANN for wind power and WS prediction is carried out. Discussion and analysis of feature selection using Relief Algorithm (RA) in WS prediction are considered for different Indian sites. RA identify atmospheric pressure, solar radiation and relative humidity are relevant input variables. Based on relevant input variables Cascade ANN model is developed and prediction accuracy is evaluated. It is found that root mean square error (RMSE) for comparison between predicted and measured WS for training and testing wind speed are found to be 1.44 m/s and 1.49 m/s respectively. The developed cascade ANN model can be used to predict wind speed for sites where there are not WS measuring instruments are installed in India.

Wind speed prediction is critical to the management of wind power generation. Due to the large range of wind speed fluctuations and wake effect, there may also be strong correlations between long-distance wind turbines. This difficult-to-extract feature has become a bottleneck for improving accuracy. History and future time information includes the trend of airflow changes, whether this dynamic information can be utilized will also affect the prediction effect. In response to the above problems, this paper proposes Windformer. First, Windformer divides the wind turbine cluster into multiple non-overlapping windows and calculates correlations inside the windows, then shifts the windows partially to provide connectivity between windows, and finally fuses multi-channel features based on detailed and global information. To dynamically model the change process of wind speed, this paper extracts time series in both history and future directions simultaneously. Compared with other current-advanced methods, the Mean Square Error (MSE) of Windformer is reduced by 0.5\% to 15\% on two datasets from NERL.

Network-level traffic condition forecasting has been intensively studied for decades. Although prediction accuracy has been continuously improved with emerging deep learning models and ever-expanding traffic data, traffic forecasting still faces many challenges in practice. These challenges include the robustness of data-driven models, the inherent unpredictability of traffic dynamics, and whether further improvement of traffic forecasting requires more sensor data. In this paper, we focus on this latter question and particularly on data from loop detectors. To answer this, we propose an uncertainty-aware traffic forecasting framework to explore how many samples of loop data are truly effective for training forecasting models. Firstly, the model design combines traffic flow theory with graph neural networks, ensuring the robustness of prediction and uncertainty quantification. Secondly, evidential learning is employed to quantify different sources of uncertainty in a single pass. The estimated uncertainty is used to "distil" the essence of the dataset that sufficiently covers the information content. Results from a case study of a highway network around Amsterdam show that, from 2018 to 2021, more than 80\% of the data during daytime can be removed. The remaining 20\% samples have equal prediction power for training models. This result suggests that indeed large traffic datasets can be subdivided into significantly smaller but equally informative datasets. From these findings, we conclude that the proposed methodology proves valuable in evaluating large traffic datasets' true information content. Further extensions, such as extracting smaller, spatially non-redundant datasets, are possible with this method.

Transportation agencies need to assess ramp metering performance when deploying or expanding a ramp metering system. The evaluation of a ramp metering strategy is primarily centered around examining its impact on freeway traffic mobility. One way these effects can be explored is by comparing traffic states, such as the speed before and after the ramp metering strategy has been altered. Predicting freeway traffic states for the after scenarios following the implementation of a new ramp metering control strategy could offer valuable insights into the potential effectiveness of the target strategy. However, the use of machine learning methods in predicting the freeway traffic state for the after scenarios and evaluating the effectiveness of transportation policies or traffic control strategies such as ramp metering is somewhat limited in the current literature. To bridge the research gap, this study presents a framework for predicting freeway traffic parameters (speed, occupancy, and flow rate) for the after situations when a new ramp metering control strategy is implemented. By learning the association between the spatial-temporal features of traffic states in before and after situations for known freeway segments, the proposed framework can transfer this learning to predict the traffic parameters for new freeway segments. The proposed framework is built upon a transfer learning model. Experimental results show that the proposed framework is feasible for use as an alternative for predicting freeway traffic parameters to proactively evaluate ramp metering performance.