simulation
Fast ε-free Inference of Simulation Models with Bayesian Conditional Density Estimation
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior over parameters by conditioning on data being inside an ε-ball around the observed data, which is only correct in the limit ε 0. Monte Carlo methods can then draw samples from the approximate posterior to approximate predictions or error bars on parameters.
What was Doge? How Elon Musk tried to gamify government
In 2025, when Elon Musk joined the government as the de facto head of something called the "department of government efficiency", he declared that governments were poorly configured "big dumb machines". To the senator Ted Cruz, he explained that "the only way to reconcile the databases and get rid of waste and fraud is to actually look at the computers". Muskism came to Washington soaked in memes, adolescent boasts and sadistic victory dances over mass firings. Leading a team of teenage coders and mid-level managers drawn from his suite of companies, Musk aimed to enter the codebase and rewrite regulations and budget lines from within. He would drag the paper-pushing bureaucracy kicking and screaming into the digital 21st century, scanning the contents of cavernous rooms of filing cabinets and feeding the data into a single interoperable system. The undertaking combined features of private equity-led restructuring with startup management, shot through with the sensibility of gaming and rightwing culture war. To succeed, he would need "God mode", an overview of the whole. If the mandate of Doge was to "[modernise] federal technology and software to maximise governmental efficiency and productivity", in the words of the executive order that launched the initiative on 20 January 2025, the reality was a strengthening of the state's surveillance capacities. Over time, Musk had become convinced that the real bugs in the code were people, especially the non-white illegal immigrants whom he saw as pawns in a liberal scheme to corrupt democracy and beneficiaries of what he called "suicidal empathy". He understood empathy itself in coding terms.
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A petri dish of human brain cells is currently playing Doom. Should we be worried?
'As soon as we got Pong to work, people said: 'When are you going to do Doom?' a biological computer playing the 90s video game. 'As soon as we got Pong to work, people said: 'When are you going to do Doom?' a biological computer playing the 90s video game. A petri dish of human brain cells is currently playing Doom. Scientists in the US have uploaded a fruit fly to a computer simulation, while an Australian lab has taught neurons on a glass chip to play a 90s video game. How long before we are all living in a sci-fi movie? I t sounds like the opening of a sci-fi film, but US scientists recently uploaded a copy of the brain of a living fly into a simulation.
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You Can Approximate Pi by Dropping Needles on the Floor
Who needs a supercomputer when you can calculate pi with a box of sewing needles? Happy Pi Day! March 14 is the date that otherwise rational people celebrate this irrational number, because 3/14 contains the first three digits of pi. And hey, pi deserves a day. By definition, it's the ratio of the circumference and diameter of a circle, but it shows up in all kinds of places that seem to have nothing to do with circles, from music to quantum mechanics. Pi is an infinitely long decimal number that never repeats.
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Why physical AI is becoming manufacturing's next advantage
Why physical AI is becoming manufacturing's next advantage From simulation driven development to real world execution, Microsoft and NVIDIA are helping manufacturers leverage AI to cross the industrial frontier with confidence. For decades, manufacturers have pursued automation to drive efficiency, reduce costs, and stabilize operations. That approach delivered meaningful gains, but it is no longer enough. Today's manufacturing leaders face a different challenge: how to grow amid labor constraints, rising complexity, and increasing pressure to innovate faster without sacrificing safety, quality, or trust. The next phase of transformation will not be defined by isolated AI tools or individual robots, but by intelligence that can operate reliably in the physical world . This is where physical AI--intelligence that can sense, reason, and act in the real world--marks a decisive shift.
Federated Causal Discovery Across Heterogeneous Datasets under Latent Confounding
Hahn, Maximilian, Zajak, Alina, Heider, Dominik, Ribeiro, Adèle Helena
Causal discovery across multiple datasets is often constrained by data privacy regulations and cross-site heterogeneity, limiting the use of conventional methods that require a single, centralized dataset. To address these challenges, we introduce fedCI, a federated conditional independence test that rigorously handles heterogeneous datasets with non-identical sets of variables, site-specific effects, and mixed variable types, including continuous, ordinal, binary, and categorical variables. At its core, fedCI uses a federated Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares (IRLS) procedure to estimate the parameters of generalized linear models underlying likelihood-ratio tests for conditional independence. Building on this, we develop fedCI-IOD, a federated extension of the Integration of Overlapping Datasets (IOD) algorithm, that replaces its meta-analysis strategy and enables, for the fist time, federated causal discovery under latent confounding across distributed and heterogeneous datasets. By aggregating evidence federatively, fedCI-IOD not only preserves privacy but also substantially enhances statistical power, achieving performance comparable to fully pooled analyses and mitigating artifacts from low local sample sizes. Our tools are publicly available as the fedCI Python package, a privacy-preserving R implementation of IOD, and a web application for the fedCI-IOD pipeline, providing versatile, user-friendly solutions for federated conditional independence testing and causal discovery.
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Phantom codes could help quantum computers avoid errors
Algorithms called phantom codes could help quantum computers run complex programs without errors, overcoming a big hurdle for making the technology more broadly useful. Early on, some physicists doubted that quantum computers would ever be useful because they expected these devices to be too prone to hard-to-correct errors. Today, several types of quantum computers exist and have already been used for scientific discovery and exploration. Yet, while progress has been made, researchers have not managed to fully curtail the error-making problem. Quantum computers have finally arrived, but will they ever be useful?
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Enhanced Diffusion Sampling: Efficient Rare Event Sampling and Free Energy Calculation with Diffusion Models
Xie, Yu, Winkler, Ludwig, Sun, Lixin, Lewis, Sarah, Foster, Adam E., Luna, José Jiménez, Hempel, Tim, Gastegger, Michael, Chen, Yaoyi, Zaporozhets, Iryna, Clementi, Cecilia, Bishop, Christopher M., Noé, Frank
The rare-event sampling problem has long been the central limiting factor in molecular dynamics (MD), especially in biomolecular simulation. Recently, diffusion models such as BioEmu have emerged as powerful equilibrium samplers that generate independent samples from complex molecular distributions, eliminating the cost of sampling rare transition events. However, a sampling problem remains when computing observables that rely on states which are rare in equilibrium, for example folding free energies. Here, we introduce enhanced diffusion sampling, enabling efficient exploration of rare-event regions while preserving unbiased thermodynamic estimators. The key idea is to perform quantitatively accurate steering protocols to generate biased ensembles and subsequently recover equilibrium statistics via exact reweighting. We instantiate our framework in three algorithms: UmbrellaDiff (umbrella sampling with diffusion models), $Δ$G-Diff (free-energy differences via tilted ensembles), and MetaDiff (a batchwise analogue for metadynamics). Across toy systems, protein folding landscapes and folding free energies, our methods achieve fast, accurate, and scalable estimation of equilibrium properties within GPU-minutes to hours per system -- closing the rare-event sampling gap that remained after the advent of diffusion-model equilibrium samplers.
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