X and R L sib ( X, G), the following three statements are equivalent.

Suicide is a leading cause of death among adolescents (12-18), yet predicting it remains a significant challenge. Many cases go undetected due to a lack of contact with mental health services. Social media, however, offers a unique opportunity, as young people often share their thoughts and struggles online in real time. In this work, we propose a novel task and method to approach it: predicting suicidal ideation and behavior (SIB) from forum posts before an adolescent explicitly expresses suicidal ideation on an online forum. This predictive framing, where no self-disclosure is used as input at any stage, remains largely unexplored in the suicide prediction literature. To this end, we introduce Early-SIB, a transformer-based model that sequentially processes the posts a user writes and engages with to predict whether they will write a SIB post. Our model achieves a balanced accuracy of 0.73 for predicting future SIB on a Dutch youth forum, demonstrating that such tools can offer a meaningful addition to traditional methods.

Causality plays a pivotal role in various fields of study. Based on the framework of causal graphical models, previous works have proposed identifying whether a variable is a cause or non-cause of a target in every Markov equivalent graph solely by learning a local structure. However, the presence of prior knowledge, often represented as a partially known causal graph, is common in many causal modeling applications. Leveraging this prior knowledge allows for the further identification of causal relationships. In this paper, we first propose a method for learning the local structure using all types of causal background knowledge, including direct causal information, non-ancestral information and ancestral information. Then we introduce criteria for identifying causal relationships based solely on the local structure in the presence of prior knowledge. We also apply out method to fair machine learning, and experiments involving local structure learning, causal relationship identification, and fair machine learning demonstrate that our method is both effective and efficient.

Linear non-Gaussian causal models postulate that each random variable is a linear function of parent variables and non-Gaussian exogenous error terms. We study identification of the linear coefficients when such models contain latent variables. Our focus is on the commonly studied acyclic setting, where each model corresponds to a directed acyclic graph (DAG). For this case, prior literature has demonstrated that connections to overcomplete independent component analysis yield effective criteria to decide parameter identifiability in latent variable models. However, this connection is based on the assumption that the observed variables linearly depend on the latent variables. Departing from this assumption, we treat models that allow for arbitrary non-linear latent confounding. Our main result is a graphical criterion that is necessary and sufficient for deciding the generic identifiability of direct causal effects. Moreover, we provide an algorithmic implementation of the criterion with a run time that is polynomial in the number of observed variables. Finally, we report on estimation heuristics based on the identification result, explore a generalization to models with feedback loops, and provide new results on the identifiability of the causal graph.

Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models (HHMMs) are sophisticated stochastic models that enable us to capture a hierarchical context characterization of sequence data.

Previous studies have used prescriptive process monitoring to find actionable policies in business processes and conducted case studies in similar domains, such as the loan application process and the traffic fine process. However, care processes tend to be more dynamic and complex. For example, at any stage of a care process, a multitude of actions is possible. In this paper, we follow the reinforcement approach and train a Markov decision process using event data from a care process. The goal was to find optimal policies for staff members when clients are displaying any type of aggressive behavior. We used the reinforcement learning algorithms Q-learning and SARSA to find optimal policies. Results showed that the policies derived from these algorithms are similar to the most frequent actions currently used but provide the staff members with a few more options in certain situations.

We consider conducting inference on the output of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) [Breiman et al., 1984] algorithm. A naive approach to inference that does not account for the fact that the tree was estimated from the data will not achieve standard guarantees, such as Type 1 error rate control and nominal coverage. Thus, we propose a selective inference framework for conducting inference on a fitted CART tree. In a nutshell, we condition on the fact that the tree was estimated from the data. We propose a test for the difference in the mean response between a pair of terminal nodes that controls the selective Type 1 error rate, and a confidence interval for the mean response within a single terminal node that attains the nominal selective coverage. Efficient algorithms for computing the necessary conditioning sets are provided. We apply these methods in simulation and to a dataset involving the association between portion control interventions and caloric intake.

The emergence of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) has greatly boosted the progress of graph learning. However, two disturbing factors, noise and redundancy in graph data, and lack of interpretation for prediction results, impede further development of GCN. One solution is to recognize a predictive yet compressed subgraph to get rid of the noise and redundancy and obtain the interpretable part of the graph. This setting of subgraph is similar to the information bottleneck (IB) principle, which is less studied on graph-structured data and GCN. Inspired by the IB principle, we propose a novel subgraph information bottleneck (SIB) framework to recognize such subgraphs, named IB-subgraph. However, the intractability of mutual information and the discrete nature of graph data makes the objective of SIB notoriously hard to optimize. To this end, we introduce a bilevel optimization scheme coupled with a mutual information estimator for irregular graphs. Moreover, we propose a continuous relaxation for subgraph selection with a connectivity loss for stabilization. We further theoretically prove the error bound of our estimation scheme for mutual information and the noise-invariant nature of IB-subgraph. Extensive experiments on graph learning and large-scale point cloud tasks demonstrate the superior property of IB-subgraph.

Causality is important for designing interpretable and robust methods in artificial intelligence research. We propose a local approach to identify whether a variable is a cause of a given target based on causal graphical models of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). In general, the causal relation between two variables may not be identifiable from observational data as many causal DAGs encoding different causal relations are Markov equivalent. In this paper, we first introduce a sufficient and necessary graphical condition to check the existence of a causal path from a variable to a target in every Markov equivalent DAG. Next, we provide local criteria for identifying whether the variable is a cause/non-cause of the target. Finally, we propose a local learning algorithm for this causal query via learning local structure of the variable and some additional statistical independence tests related to the target. Simulation studies show that our local algorithm is efficient and effective, compared with other state-of-art methods.

Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models (HHMMs) are sophisticated stochastic models that enable us to capture a hierarchical context characterization of sequence data. However, existing HHMM parameter estimation methods require large computations of time complexity O(TN^{2D}) at least for model inference, where D is the depth of the hierarchy, N is the number of states in each level, and T is the sequence length. In this paper, we propose a new inference method of HHMMs for which the time complexity is O(TN^{D+1}). A key idea of our algorithm is application of the forward-backward algorithm to ''state activation probabilities''. The notion of a state activation, which offers a simple formalization of the hierarchical transition behavior of HHMMs, enables us to conduct model inference efficiently. We present some experiments to demonstrate that our proposed method works more efficiently to estimate HHMM parameters than do some existing methods such as the flattening method and Gibbs sampling method.