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 shap analysis


Research on Milling Machine Predictive Maintenance Based on Machine Learning and SHAP Analysis in Intelligent Manufacturing Environment

Zhao, Wen, Ding, Jiawen, Huang, Xueting, Zhang, Yibo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the context of intelligent manufacturing, this paper conducts a series of experimental studies on the predictive maintenance of industrial milling machine equipment based on the AI4I 2020 dataset. This paper proposes a complete predictive maintenance experimental process combining artificial intelligence technology, including six main links: data preprocessing, model training, model evaluation, model selection, SHAP analysis, and result visualization. By comparing and analyzing the performance of eight machine learning models, it is found that integrated learning methods such as XGBoost and random forest perform well in milling machine fault prediction tasks. In addition, with the help of SHAP analysis technology, the influence mechanism of different features on equipment failure is deeply revealed, among which processing temperature, torque and speed are the key factors affecting failure. This study combines artificial intelligence and manufacturing technology, provides a methodological reference for predictive maintenance practice in an intelligent manufacturing environment, and has practical significance for promoting the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, improving production efficiency and reducing maintenance costs.


Explainable AI for Curie Temperature Prediction in Magnetic Materials

Ajaib, M. Adeel, Nasir, Fariha, Rehman, Abdul

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional approaches based on quantum mechanical computations or empirical models are often limited in scalability and accuracy. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising alternative for property prediction across materials science domains [1-9]. Building on this momentum, several recent studies have proposed the use of ML models trained on curated magnetic datasets. In particular, the recent study [10] introduced the NE-MAD database, which aggregates experimentally measured magnetic transition temperatures and compositions. Similarly, the study by [11] utilized two of the largest available datasets of experimental Curie temperatures--comprising over 2,500 materials for training and more than 3,000 entries for validation--to compare machine learning strategies for predicting Curie temperature solely from chemical composition. Our work is inspired by these prior efforts and aims to improve the predictive accuracy and gain insights into model in-terpretability. We develop a pipeline that starts from the NE-MAD dataset, augments it with compositional and elemental features, and evaluates several ML models. A key contribution of our work is the integration of explainable AI (XAI) through SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis, which allows us to quantify how each input feature contributes to the model's prediction. Moreover, we benchmark our models on external datasets from literature to demonstrate generalization.


A Deep Learning Approach for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of InSAR Ground Deformation in Eastern Ireland

Yao, Wendong, Azadnejad, Saeed, Huang, Binhua, Donohue, Shane, Dev, Soumyabrata

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Monitoring ground displacement is crucial for urban infrastructure stability and mitigating geological hazards. However, forecasting future deformation from sparse Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time-series data remains a significant challenge. This paper introduces a novel deep learning framework that transforms these sparse point measurements into a dense spatio-temporal tensor. This methodological shift allows, for the first time, the direct application of advanced computer vision architectures to this forecasting problem. We design and implement a hybrid Convolutional Neural Network and Long-Short Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) model, specifically engineered to simultaneously learn spatial patterns and temporal dependencies from the generated data tensor. The model's performance is benchmarked against powerful machine learning baselines, Light Gradient Boosting Machine and LASSO regression, using Sentinel-1 data from eastern Ireland. Results demonstrate that the proposed architecture provides significantly more accurate and spatially coherent forecasts, establishing a new performance benchmark for this task. Furthermore, an interpretability analysis reveals that baseline models often default to simplistic persistence patterns, highlighting the necessity of our integrated spatio-temporal approach to capture the complex dynamics of ground deformation. Our findings confirm the efficacy and potential of spatio-temporal deep learning for high-resolution deformation forecasting.


A Dimensionality-Reduced XAI Framework for Roundabout Crash Severity Insights

Chakraborty, Rohit, Das, Subasish

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Roundabouts reduce severe crashes, yet risk patterns vary by conditions. This study analyzes 2017-2021 Ohio roundabout crashes using a two-step, explainable workflow. Cluster Correspondence Analysis (CCA) identifies co-occurring factors and yields four crash patterns. A tree-based severity model is then interpreted with SHAP to quantify drivers of injury within and across patterns. Results show higher severity when darkness, wet surfaces, and higher posted speeds coincide with fixed-object or angle events, and lower severity in clear, low-speed settings. Pattern-specific explanations highlight mechanisms at entries (fail-to-yield, gap acceptance), within multi-lane circulation (improper maneuvers), and during slow-downs (rear-end). The workflow links pattern discovery with case-level explanations, supporting site screening, countermeasure selection, and audit-ready reporting. The contribution to Information Systems is a practical template for usable XAI in public safety analytics.


A Fuzzy-Enhanced Explainable AI Framework for Flight Continuous Descent Operations Classification

Noroozi, Amin, Sethunge, Sandaruwan K., Norouzi, Elham, Phan, Phat T., Waduge, Kavinda U., Rahman, Md. Arafatur

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continuous Descent Operations (CDO) involve smooth, idle-thrust descents that avoid level-offs, reducing fuel burn, emissions, and noise while improving efficiency and passenger comfort. Despite its operational and environmental benefits, limited research has systematically examined the factors influencing CDO performance. Moreover, many existing methods in related areas, such as trajectory optimization, lack the transparency required in aviation, where explainability is critical for safety and stakeholder trust. This study addresses these gaps by proposing a Fuzzy-Enhanced Explainable AI (FEXAI) framework that integrates fuzzy logic with machine learning and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. For this purpose, a comprehensive dataset of 29 features, including 11 operational and 18 weather-related features, was collected from 1,094 flights using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data. Machine learning models and SHAP were then applied to classify flights' CDO adherence levels and rank features by importance. The three most influential features, as identified by SHAP scores, were then used to construct a fuzzy rule-based classifier, enabling the extraction of interpretable fuzzy rules. All models achieved classification accuracies above 90%, with FEXAI providing meaningful, human-readable rules for operational users. Results indicated that the average descent rate within the arrival route, the number of descent segments, and the average change in directional heading during descent were the strongest predictors of CDO performance. The FEXAI method proposed in this study presents a novel pathway for operational decision support and could be integrated into aviation tools to enable real-time advisories that maintain CDO adherence under varying operational conditions.


AI-Based Demand Forecasting and Load Balancing for Optimising Energy use in Healthcare Systems: A real case study

Rahimi, Iman, Patel, Isha

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

- This paper addresses the critical need for efficient energy management in healthcare facilities, where fluctuating energy demands challenge both operational and sustainability goals. Traditional energy management methods often fall short in healthcare settings, lead ing to inefficiencies and increased costs. To address this, the paper explores AI - driven approaches for demand forecasting and load balancing, introducing a novel integration of LSTM (Long Short - Term Memory), g enetic a lgorithm, and SHAP (Shapley Additive E xplanations) specifically tailored for healthcare energy management. While LSTM has been widely used for time - series forecasting, its application in healthcare energy demand prediction is underexplored. Here, LSTM is demonstrated to significantly outperfor m ARIMA and Prophet models in handling complex, non - linear demand patterns. Results show that LSTM achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 21.69 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 29.96, significantly improving upon Prophet (MAE: 59.78, RMSE: 81.22) and ARIMA (MAE: 87.73, RMSE: 125.22), highlighting its superior forecasting capability. Genetic algorithm is employed not only for optimising forecasting model parameters but also for dynamically improving load balancing strategies, ensuring adaptability to real - time energy fluctuations. Additionally, SHAP analysis is used to interpret the models and understan d the impact of various input features on predictions, enhancing model transparency and trustworthiness in energy decision - making. The combined LSTM - GA - SH AP approach offers a comprehensive framework that improves forecasting accuracy, enhances energy efficiency, and supports sustainability in healthcare environments. Future work could focus on real - time implementation and further hybridisation with reinforc ement learning for continuous optimisation. This study establishes a strong foundation for leveraging AI in healthcare energy management, showcasing its potential for scalability, efficiency, and resilience. Introduction Australia has a big capacity of using renewable energy in different regions ( Holloway, R, 2023; Rahimi et al., 2025) . Australian healthcare system plays a major role in using renewable energies. Optimising energy use in healthcare systems is essential due to the high and often unpredictable energy demands needed to run medical equipment, keep environmental conditions stable, and support constant patient care.


Predicting performance-related properties of refrigerant based on tailored small-molecule functional group contribution

Cao, Peilin, Geng, Ying, Feng, Nan, Zhang, Xiang, Qi, Zhiwen, Song, Zhen, Gani, Rafiqul

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As current group contribution (GC) methods are mostly proposed for a wide size-range of molecules, applying them to property prediction of small refrigerant molecules could lead to unacceptable errors. In this sense, for the design of novel refrigerants and refrigeration systems, tailoring GC-based models specifically fitted to refrigerant molecules is of great interest. In this work, databases of potential refrigerant molecules are first collected, focusing on five key properties related to the operational efficiency of refrigeration systems, namely normal boiling point, critical temperature, critical pressure, enthalpy of vaporization, and acentric factor. Based on tailored small-molecule groups, the GC method is combined with machine learning (ML) to model these performance-related properties. Following the development of GC-ML models, their performance is analyzed to highlight the potential group-to-property contributions. Additionally, the refrigerant property databases are extended internally and externally, based on which examples are presented to highlight the significance of the developed models.


Machine learning-driven Anomaly Detection and Forecasting for Euclid Space Telescope Operations

Gómez, Pablo, Vavrek, Roland D., Buenadicha, Guillermo, Hoar, John, Kruk, Sandor, Reerink, Jan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.


Enhancing End Stage Renal Disease Outcome Prediction: A Multi-Sourced Data-Driven Approach

Li, Yubo, Padman, Rema

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.


Mazed and Confused: A Dataset of Cybersickness, Working Memory, Mental Load, Physical Load, and Attention During a Real Walking Task in VR

Setu, Jyotirmay Nag, Le, Joshua M, Kundu, Ripan Kumar, Giesbrecht, Barry, Höllerer, Tobias, Hoque, Khaza Anuarul, Desai, Kevin, Quarles, John

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Virtual Reality (VR) is quickly establishing itself in various industries, including training, education, medicine, and entertainment, in which users are frequently required to carry out multiple complex cognitive and physical activities. However, the relationship between cognitive activities, physical activities, and familiar feelings of cybersickness is not well understood and thus can be unpredictable for developers. Researchers have previously provided labeled datasets for predicting cybersickness while users are stationary, but there have been few labeled datasets on cybersickness while users are physically walking. Thus, from 39 participants, we collected head orientation, head position, eye tracking, images, physiological readings from external sensors, and the self-reported cybersickness severity, physical load, and mental load in VR. Throughout the data collection, participants navigated mazes via real walking and performed tasks challenging their attention and working memory. To demonstrate the dataset's utility, we conducted a case study of training classifiers in which we achieved 95% accuracy for cybersickness severity classification. The noteworthy performance of the straightforward classifiers makes this dataset ideal for future researchers to develop cybersickness detection and reduction models. To better understand the features that helped with classification, we performed SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis, highlighting the importance of eye tracking and physiological measures for cybersickness prediction while walking. This open dataset can allow future researchers to study the connection between cybersickness and cognitive loads and develop prediction models. This dataset will empower future VR developers to design efficient and effective Virtual Environments by improving cognitive load management and minimizing cybersickness.