The diffusion model has shown remarkable success in computer vision, but it remains unclear whether the ODE-based probability flow or the SDE-based diffusion model is more superior and under what circumstances. Comparing the two is challenging due to dependencies on data distributions, score training, and other numerical issues. In this paper, we study the problem mathematically for two limiting scenarios: the zero diffusion (ODE) case and the large diffusion case. We first introduce a pulse-shape error to perturb the score function and analyze error accumulation of sampling quality, followed by a thorough analysis for generalization to arbitrary error. Our findings indicate that when the perturbation occurs at the end of the generative process, the ODE model outperforms the SDE model with a large diffusion coefficient. However, when the perturbation occurs earlier, the SDE model outperforms the ODE model, and we demonstrate that the error of sample generation due to such a pulse-shape perturbation is exponentially suppressed as the diffusion term's magnitude increases to infinity. Numerical validation of this phenomenon is provided using Gaussian, Gaussian mixture, and Swiss roll distribution, as well as realistic datasets like MNIST and CIFAR-10.

The diffusion model has shown remarkable success in computer vision, but it remains unclear whether the ODE-based probability flow or the SDE-based diffusion model is more superior and under what circumstances. Comparing the two is challenging due to dependencies on data distributions, score training, and other numerical issues. In this paper, we study the problem mathematically for two limiting scenarios: the zero diffusion (ODE) case and the large diffusion case. We first introduce a pulse-shape error to perturb the score function and analyze error accumulation of sampling quality, followed by a thorough analysis for generalization to arbitrary error. Our findings indicate that when the perturbation occurs at the end of the generative process, the ODE model outperforms the SDE model with a large diffusion coefficient.

Inferring the causal structure underlying stochastic dynamical systems from observational data holds great promise in domains ranging from science and health to finance. Such processes can often be accurately modeled via stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which naturally imply causal relationships via "which variables enter the differential of which other variables". In this paper, we develop a kernel-based test of conditional independence (CI) on "path-space" -- solutions to SDEs -- by leveraging recent advances in signature kernels. We demonstrate strictly superior performance of our proposed CI test compared to existing approaches on path-space. Then, we develop constraint-based causal discovery algorithms for acyclic stochastic dynamical systems (allowing for loops) that leverage temporal information to recover the entire directed graph. Assuming faithfulness and a CI oracle, our algorithm is sound and complete. We empirically verify that our developed CI test in conjunction with the causal discovery algorithm reliably outperforms baselines across a range of settings.

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are an important framework to model dynamics with randomness, as is common in most biological systems. The inverse problem of integrating these models with empirical data remains a major challenge. Here, we present a software package, PyDaDDy (Python Library for Data Driven Dynamics) that takes time series data as an input and outputs an interpretable SDE. We achieve this by combining traditional approaches from stochastic calculus literature with state-of-the-art equation discovery techniques. We validate our approach on synthetic datasets, and demonstrate the generality and applicability of the method on two real-world datasets of vastly different spatiotemporal scales: (i) collective movement of fish school where stochasticity plays a crucial role, and (ii) confined migration of a single cell, primarily following a relaxed oscillation. We make the method available as an easy-to-use, open-source Python package, PyDaddy (Python Library for Data Driven Dynamics).

We present a framework and algorithms to learn controlled dynamics models using neural stochastic differential equations (SDEs) -- SDEs whose drift and diffusion terms are both parametrized by neural networks. We construct the drift term to leverage a priori physics knowledge as inductive bias, and we design the diffusion term to represent a distance-aware estimate of the uncertainty in the learned model's predictions -- it matches the system's underlying stochasticity when evaluated on states near those from the training dataset, and it predicts highly stochastic dynamics when evaluated on states beyond the training regime. The proposed neural SDEs can be evaluated quickly enough for use in model predictive control algorithms, or they can be used as simulators for model-based reinforcement learning. Furthermore, they make accurate predictions over long time horizons, even when trained on small datasets that cover limited regions of the state space. We demonstrate these capabilities through experiments on simulated robotic systems, as well as by using them to model and control a hexacopter's flight dynamics: A neural SDE trained using only three minutes of manually collected flight data results in a model-based control policy that accurately tracks aggressive trajectories that push the hexacopter's velocity and Euler angles to nearly double the maximum values observed in the training dataset.

However, before ice core data can have scientific value, the chronology must be inferred by estimating the age as a function of depth. Under certain conditions, chemicals locked in the ice display quasi-periodic cycles that delineate annual layers. Manually counting these noisy seasonal patterns to infer the chronology can be an imperfect and time-consuming process, and does not capture uncertainty in a principled fashion. In addition, several ice cores may be collected from a region, introducing an aspect of spatial correlation between them. We present an exploration of the use of probabilistic models for automatic dating of ice cores, using probabilistic programming to showcase its use for prototyping, automatic inference and maintainability, and demonstrate common failure modes of these tools.

The stochastic differential equation (SDE)-based random process models of volatile renewable energy sources (RESs) jointly capture the evolving probability distribution and temporal correlation in continuous time. It has enabled recent studies to remarkably improve the performance of power system dynamic uncertainty quantification and optimization. However, considering the non-homogeneous random process nature of PV, there still remains a challenging question: how can a realistic and accurate SDE model for PV power be obtained that reflects its weather-dependent uncertainty in online operation, especially when high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) is unavailable for many distributed plants? To fill this gap, this article finds that an accurate SDE model for PV power can be constructed by only using the cheap data from low-resolution public weather reports. Specifically, an hourly parameterized Jacobi diffusion process is constructed to recreate the temporal patterns of PV volatility during a day. Its parameters are mapped from the public weather report using an ensemble of extreme learning machines (ELMs) to reflect the varying weather conditions. The SDE model jointly captures intraday and intrahour volatility. Statistical examination based on real-world data collected in Macau shows the proposed approach outperforms a selection of state-of-the-art deep learning-based time-series forecast methods.

Stochastic differential equations provide a rich class of flexible generative models, capable of describing a wide range of spatio-temporal processes. A host of recent work looks to learn data-representing SDEs, using neural networks and other flexible function approximators. Despite these advances, learning remains computationally expensive due to the sequential nature of SDE integrators. In this work, we propose an importance-sampling estimator for probabilities of observations of SDEs for the purposes of learning. Crucially, the approach we suggest does not rely on such integrators. The proposed method produces lower-variance gradient estimates compared to algorithms based on SDE integrators and has the added advantage of being embarrassingly parallelizable. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a natural extension to ordinary differential equations which allows modelling of noisy and uncertain driving forces. These models are particularly appealing due to their flexibility in expressing highly complex relationships with simple equations, while retaining a high degree of interpretability. Much work has been done over the last century focussing on understanding and modelling with SDEs, particularly in dynamical systems and quantitative finance (Pavliotis, 2014; Malliavin & Thalmaier, 2006).

This paper explores a framework for recognition of image sequences using partially observable stochastic differential equation (SDE) models. Monte-Carlo importance sampling techniques are used for efficient estimation of sequence likelihoods and sequence likelihood gradients. Once the network dynamics are learned, we apply the SDE models to sequence recognition tasks in a manner similar to the way Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly applied. The potential advantage of SDEs over HMMS is the use of continuous statedynamics. We present encouraging results for a video sequence recognition task in which SDE models provided excellent performance when compared to hidden Markov models. 1 Introduction This paper explores a framework for recognition of image sequences using partially observable stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In particular we use SDE models oflow-power nonlinear RC circuits with a significant thermal noise component. We call them diffusion networks. A diffusion network consists of a set of n nodes coupled via a vector of adaptive impedance parameters ' which are tuned to optimize thenetwork's behavior.

This paper explores a framework for recognition of image sequences using partially observable stochastic differential equation (SDE) models. Monte-Carlo importance sampling techniques are used for efficient estimation of sequence likelihoods and sequence likelihood gradients. Once the network dynamics are learned, we apply the SDE models to sequence recognition tasks in a manner similar to the way Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly applied. The potential advantage of SDEs over HMMS is the use of continuous state dynamics. We present encouraging results for a video sequence recognition task in which SDE models provided excellent performance when compared to hidden Markov models. 1 Introduction This paper explores a framework for recognition of image sequences using partially observable stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In particular we use SDE models of low-power nonlinear RC circuits with a significant thermal noise component. We call them diffusion networks. A diffusion network consists of a set of n nodes coupled via a vector of adaptive impedance parameters ' which are tuned to optimize the network's behavior.