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Why Eric Schmidt became an AI cold war hype master

#artificialintelligence

Eric Schmidt has prodded the Pentagon for years to hurry along its software-buying process. Today the AI tech investor and former Google CEO is more determined than ever to urge government decision-makers to pick up the pace, but not just when it comes to buying more software for the Defense Department. Schmidt wants the government to implement his sweeping blueprint to fight what he considers an existential threat to democracy posed by China's AI plans, an effort that could also bolster his own commercial AI interests. He says the U.S.'s national security and economic leadership are dependent upon spending billions to procure smarter software, bolster AI research, and build the country's computer science talent pool. And he says he knows better than the Pentagon itself how to remove the bureaucratic blockades preventing more agile use of AI by the government. But at the same time, Schmidt's venture capital firm Innovation Endeavors has invested in companies that have received multimillion-dollar contracts from federal agencies. Some of those investments and contracts -- reported here for the first time -- were granted between 2016 and 2021 while Schmidt chaired two influential government initiatives, the Pentagon's Defense Innovation Board and the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence.


Sparse-Push: Communication- & Energy-Efficient Decentralized Distributed Learning over Directed & Time-Varying Graphs with non-IID Datasets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current deep learning (DL) systems rely on a centralized computing paradigm which limits the amount of available training data, increases system latency, and adds privacy and security constraints. On-device learning, enabled by decentralized and distributed training of DL models over peer-to-peer wirelessly connected edge devices, not only alleviate the above limitations but also enable next-gen applications that need DL models to continuously interact and learn from their environment. However, this necessitates the development of novel training algorithms that train DL models over time-varying and directed peer-to-peer graph structures while minimizing the amount of communication between the devices and also being resilient to non-IID data distributions. In this work we propose, Sparse-Push, a communication efficient decentralized distributed training algorithm that supports training over peer-to-peer, directed, and time-varying graph topologies. The proposed algorithm enables 466x reduction in communication with only 1% degradation in performance when training various DL models such as ResNet-20 and VGG11 over the CIFAR-10 dataset. Further, we demonstrate how communication compression can lead to significant performance degradation in-case of non-IID datasets, and propose Skew-Compensated Sparse Push algorithm that recovers this performance drop while maintaining similar levels of communication compression.


The real-time reactive surgical case sequencing problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, the multiple operating room (OR) surgical case sequencing problem (SCSP) is addressed. The objective is to maximise total OR utilisation during standard opening hours. The work here is based on a case study of a large Australian public hospital with long surgical waiting lists and high levels of non-elective demand. Due to the complexity of the SCSP and the size of the instances considered herein, heuristic techniques are required to solve the problem. Constructive heuristics are presented based on both a modified block scheduling policy and an open scheduling policy. A number of real-time reactive strategies are presented that can be used to maintain schedule feasibility in the case of disruptions. Results of computational experiments show that the approach presented in this paper can be used to maintain schedule feasibility in real-time, whilst increasing OT utilisation and throughput, and reducing the waiting time of non-elective patients. The framework presented here is applicable to the real-life scheduling of OT departments, and recommendations have been provided regarding implementation of the approach.


Decision Making Over Combinatorially-Structured Domains

AAAI Conferences

We consider a scenario where a user must make a set of correlated decisions and we propose a computational modeling of the deliberation process. We assume the user compactly expresses her preferences via soft constraints. We consider a sequential procedure that uses Decision Field Theory to model the decision making on each variable. We test this procedure on randomly generated tree-shaped Fuzzy Constraint Satisfaction Problems. Our preliminary results showed that the time increases almost in the number of nodes. This is promising in terms of modeling decision over exponentially large domains. In the future, we plan to compare our results non-sequential approach and with behavioral data to asses our approach both in terms of modeling human decision making over complex domains, and adopting DFT as a means of incorporating a form of uncertainty into the soft constraint formalism.


Confidence-based Reasoning in Stochastic Constraint Programming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work we introduce a novel approach, based on sampling, for finding assignments that are likely to be solutions to stochastic constraint satisfaction problems and constraint optimisation problems. Our approach reduces the size of the original problem being analysed; by solving this reduced problem, with a given confidence probability, we obtain assignments that satisfy the chance constraints in the original model within prescribed error tolerance thresholds. To achieve this, we blend concepts from stochastic constraint programming and statistics. We discuss both exact and approximate variants of our method. The framework we introduce can be immediately employed in concert with existing approaches for solving stochastic constraint programs. A thorough computational study on a number of stochastic combinatorial optimisation problems demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach.


Compiling Strategic Games with Complete Information into Stochastic CSPs

AAAI Conferences

Among the languages used for representing goals, actions and their consequences on the world for decision making and planning, GDL (Game Description Language) has the ability to represent complex actions in potentially uncertain and competitive environments. The aim of this paper is to exploit stochastic constraint networks in order to provide compact representations of strategic games, and to identify optimal policies in those games with generic forward checking method. From this perspective, we develop a compiler allowing to translate games, described in GDL, into instances of the Stochastic Constraint Optimization Problem (SCSP). Our compiler is proved correct for the class GDL of games with complete information and oblivious environment. The interest of our approach is illustrated by solving several GDL games with a SCSP solver.


An Algebraic Hardness Criterion for Surjective Constraint Satisfaction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The constraint satisfaction problem (CSP) on a relational structure B is to decide, given a set of constraints on variables where the relations come from B, whether or not there is a assignment to the variables satisfying all of the constraints; the surjective CSP is the variant where one decides the existence of a surjective satisfying assignment onto the universe of B. We present an algebraic condition on the polymorphism clone of B and prove that it is sufficient for the hardness of the surjective CSP on a finite structure B, in the sense that this problem admits a reduction from a certain fixed-structure CSP. To our knowledge, this is the first result that allows one to use algebraic information from a relational structure B to infer information on the complexity hardness of surjective constraint satisfaction on B. A corollary of our result is that, on any finite non-trivial structure having only essentially unary polymorphisms, surjective constraint satisfaction is NP-complete.


Multi-Agent Soft Constraint Aggregation via Sequential Voting

AAAI Conferences

We consider scenarios where several agents must aggregate their preferences over a large set of candidates with a combinatorial structure. That is, each candidate is an element of the Cartesian product of the domains of some variables. We assume agents compactly express their preferences over the candidates via soft constraints. We consider a sequential procedure that chooses one candidate by asking the agents to vote on one variable at a time. While some properties of this procedure have been already studied, here we focus on independence of irrelevant alternatives, non-dictatorship, and strategy-proofness. Also, we perform an experimental study that shows that the proposed sequential procedure yields a considerable saving in time with respect to a non-sequential approach, while the winners satisfy the agents just as well, independently of the variable ordering and of the presence of coalitions of agents.


Finding (α,ϑ)-Solutions Via Sampled SCSPs

AAAI Conferences

We discuss a novel approach for dealing with single-stage stochastic constraint satisfaction problems (SCSPs) that include random variables over a continuous or large discrete support. Our approach is based on two novel tools: sampled SCSPs and (α,ϑ)-solutions. Instead of explicitly enumerating a very large or infinite set of future scenarios, we employ statistical estimation to determine if a given assignment is consistent for a SCSP. As in statistical estimation, the quality of our estimate is determined via confidence interval analysis. In contrast to existing approaches based on sampling, we provide likelihood guarantees for the quality of the solutions found. Our approach can be used in concert with existing strategies for solving SCSPs.


A Maximal Tractable Class of Soft Constraints

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many researchers in artificial intelligence are beginning to explore the use of soft constraints to express a set of (possibly conflicting) problem requirements. A soft constraint is a function defined on a collection of variables which associates some measure of desirability with each possible combination of values for those variables. However, the crucial question of the computational complexity of finding the optimal solution to a collection of soft constraints has so far received very little attention. In this paper we identify a class of soft binary constraints for which the problem of finding the optimal solution is tractable. In other words, we show that for any given set of such constraints, there exists a polynomial time algorithm to determine the assignment having the best overall combined measure of desirability. This tractable class includes many commonly-occurring soft constraints, such as 'as near as possible' or 'as soon as possible after', as well as crisp constraints such as 'greater than'. Finally, we show that this tractable class is maximal, in the sense that adding any other form of soft binary constraint which is not in the class gives rise to a class of problems which is NP-hard.