Bayesian Deep Ensembles (BDEs) represent a powerful approach for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, combining the robustness of Deep Ensembles (DEs) with flexible multi-chain MCMC. While DEs are affordable in most deep learning settings, (long) sampling of Bayesian neural networks can be prohibitively costly. Yet, adding sampling after optimizing the DEs has been shown to yield significant improvements. This leaves a critical practical question: How long should the sequential sampling process continue to yield significant improvements over the initial optimized DE baseline? To tackle this question, we propose a stopping rule based on E-values. We formulate the ensemble construction as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, providing a principled way to decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis that MCMC offers no improvement over a strong baseline, to early stop the sampling. Empirically, we study this approach for diverse settings. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach and reveal that only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required.

High-dimensional and complex discrete distributions often exhibit multimodal behavior due to inherent discontinuities, posing significant challenges for sampling. Gradient-based discrete samplers, while effective, frequently become trapped in local modes when confronted with rugged or disconnected energy landscapes. This limits their ability to achieve adequate mixing and convergence in high-dimensional multimodal discrete spaces. To address these challenges, we propose \emph{Hyperbolic Secant-squared Gibbs-Sampling (HiSS)}, a novel family of sampling algorithms that integrates a \emph{Metropolis-within-Gibbs} framework to enhance mixing efficiency. HiSS leverages a logistic convolution kernel to couple the discrete sampling variable with the continuous auxiliary variable in a joint distribution. This design allows the auxiliary variable to encapsulate the true target distribution while facilitating easy transitions between distant and disconnected modes. We provide theoretical guarantees of convergence and demonstrate empirically that HiSS outperforms many popular alternatives on a wide variety of tasks, including Ising models, binary neural networks, and combinatorial optimization.

Time-series analysis is often affected by missing data, a common problem across several fields, including healthcare and environmental monitoring. Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) has been prominent for imputing missing values through "fully conditional specification". We extend MICE using the Bayesian framework (tBayes-MICE), utilising Bayesian inference to impute missing values via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to account for uncertainty in MICE model parameters and imputed values. We also include temporally informed initialisation and time-lagged features in the model to respect the sequential nature of time-series data. We evaluate the tBayes-MICE method using two real-world datasets (AirQuality and PhysioNet), and using both the Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) samplers. Our results demonstrate that tBayes-MICE reduces imputation errors relative to the baseline methods over all variables and accounts for uncertainty in the imputation process, thereby providing a more accurate measure of imputation error. We also found that MALA mixed better than RWM across most variables, achieving comparable accuracy while providing more consistent posterior exploration. Overall, these findings suggest that the tBayes-MICE framework represents a practical and efficient approach to time-series imputation, balancing increased accuracy with meaningful quantification of uncertainty in various environmental and clinical settings.

We study dual volume sampling, a method for selecting k columns from an n*m short and wide matrix (n <= k <= m) such that the probability of selection is proportional to the volume spanned by the rows of the induced submatrix. This method was proposed by Avron and Boutsidis (2013), who showed it to be a promising method for column subset selection and its multiple applications. However, its wider adoption has been hampered by the lack of polynomial time sampling algorithms. We remove this hindrance by developing an exact (randomized) polynomial time sampling algorithm as well as its derandomization. Thereafter, we study dual volume sampling via the theory of real stable polynomials and prove that its distribution satisfies the "Strong Rayleigh" property. This result has numerous consequences, including a provably fast-mixing Markov chain sampler that makes dual volume sampling much more attractive to practitioners. This sampler is closely related to classical algorithms for popular experimental design methods that are to date lacking theoretical analysis but are known to empirically work well.

We study probability measures induced by set functions with constraints. Such measures arise in a variety of real-world settings, where prior knowledge, resource limitations, or other pragmatic considerations impose constraints. We consider the task of rapidly sampling from such constrained measures, and develop fast Markov chain samplers for them. Our first main result is for MCMC sampling from Strongly Rayleigh (SR) measures, for which we present sharp polynomial bounds on the mixing time. As a corollary, this result yields a fast mixing sampler for Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs), yielding (to our knowledge) the first provably fast MCMC sampler for DPPs since their inception over four decades ago. Beyond SR measures, we develop MCMC samplers for probabilistic models with hard constraints and identify sufficient conditions under which their chains mix rapidly. We illustrate our claims by empirically verifying the dependence of mixing times on the key factors governing our theoretical bounds.

Discrete diffusion models have achieved strong empirical performance in text and other symbolic domains, with masked (absorbing-rate) variants emerging as competitive alternatives to autoregressive models. Among existing samplers, the Euler method remains the standard choice in many applications, and more recently, the First-Hitting Sampler (FHS) has shown considerable promise for masked diffusion models. Despite their practical success, the theoretical understanding of these samplers remains limited. Existing analyses are conducted in Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which often yields loose parameter dependencies and requires strong assumptions on score estimation. Moreover, these guarantees do not cover recently developed high-performance sampler of FHS. In this work, we first develop a direct total-variation (TV) based analysis for the Euler method that overcomes these limitations. Our results relax assumptions on score estimation, improve parameter dependencies, and establish convergence guarantees without requiring any surrogate initialization. Also for this setting, we provide the first convergence lower bound for the Euler sampler, establishing tightness with respect to both the data dimension $d$ and the target accuracy $\varepsilon$. Finally, we analyze the FHS sampler and show that it incurs no sampling error beyond that induced by score estimation, which we show to be tight with a matching lower error bound. Overall, our analysis introduces a direct TV-based error decomposition along the CTMC trajectory and a decoupling-based path-wise analysis for FHS, which may be of independent interest.

Sampling in discrete spaces, with critical applications in simulation and optimization, has recently been boosted by significant advances in gradient-based approaches that exploit modern accelerators like GPUs. However, two key challenges are hindering further advancement in research on discrete sampling.