Vital signs, such as heart rate and blood pressure, are critical indicators of patient health and are widely used in clinical monitoring and decision-making. While deep learning models have shown promise in forecasting these signals, their deployment in healthcare remains limited in part because clinicians must be able to trust and interpret model outputs. Without reliable uncertainty quantification -- particularly calibrated prediction intervals (PIs) -- it is unclear whether a forecasted abnormality constitutes a meaningful warning or merely reflects model noise, hindering clinical decision-making. To address this, we present two methods for deriving PIs from the Reconstruction Uncertainty Estimate (RUE), an uncertainty measure well-suited to vital-sign forecasting due to its sensitivity to data shifts and support for label-free calibration. Our parametric approach assumes that prediction errors and uncertainty estimates follow a Gaussian copula distribution, enabling closed-form PI computation. Our non-parametric approach, based on k-nearest neighbours (KNN), empirically estimates the conditional error distribution using similar validation instances. We evaluate these methods on two large public datasets with minute- and hour-level sampling, representing high- and low-frequency health signals. Experiments demonstrate that the Gaussian copula method consistently outperforms conformal prediction baselines on low-frequency data, while the KNN approach performs best on high-frequency data. These results underscore the clinical promise of RUE-derived PIs for delivering interpretable, uncertainty-aware vital sign forecasts.

Policy Space Response Oracles (PSRO) interleaves empirical game-theoretic analysis with deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to solve games too complex for traditional analytic methods. Tree-exploiting PSRO (TE-PSRO) is a variant of this approach that iteratively builds a coarsened empirical game model in extensive form using data obtained from querying a simulator that represents a detailed description of the game. We make two main methodological advances to TE-PSRO that enhance its applicability to complex games of imperfect information. First, we introduce a scalable representation for the empirical game tree where edges correspond to implicit policies learned through DRL. These policies cover conditions in the underlying game abstracted in the game model, supporting sustainable growth of the tree over epochs. Second, we leverage extensive form in the empirical model by employing refined Nash equilibria to direct strategy exploration. To enable this, we give a modular and scalable algorithm based on generalized backward induction for computing a subgame perfect equilibrium (SPE) in an imperfect-information game. We experimentally evaluate our approach on a suite of games including an alternating-offer bargaining game with outside offers; our results demonstrate that TE-PSRO converges toward equilibrium faster when new strategies are generated based on SPE rather than Nash equilibrium, and with reasonable time/memory requirements for the growing empirical model.

In the context of large language models (LLMs), current advanced reasoning methods have made impressive strides in various reasoning tasks. However, when it comes to logical reasoning tasks, major challenges remain in both efficacy and efficiency. This is rooted in the fact that these systems fail to fully leverage the inherent structure of logical tasks throughout the reasoning processes such as decomposition, search, and resolution. To address this, we propose a logic-complete reasoning framework, Aristotle, with three key components: Logical Decomposer, Logical Search Router, and Logical Resolver. In our framework, symbolic expressions and logical rules are comprehensively integrated into the entire reasoning process, significantly alleviating the bottlenecks of logical reasoning, i.e., reducing sub-task complexity, minimizing search errors, and resolving logical contradictions. The experimental results on several datasets demonstrate that Aristotle consistently outperforms state-of-the-art reasoning frameworks in both accuracy and efficiency, particularly excelling in complex logical reasoning scenarios. We will open-source all our code at https://github.com/Aiden0526/Aristotle.

We study best-arm identification (BAI) in the fixed-budget setting. Adaptive allocations based on upper confidence bounds (UCBs), such as UCBE, are known to work well in BAI. However, it is well-known that its optimal regret is theoretically dependent on instances, which we show to be an artifact in many fixed-budget BAI problems. In this paper we propose an UCB exploration algorithm that is both theoretically and empirically efficient for the fixed budget BAI problem under a Bayesian setting. The key idea is to learn prior information, which can enhance the performance of UCB-based BAI algorithm as it has done in the cumulative regret minimization problem. We establish bounds on the failure probability and the simple regret for the Bayesian BAI problem, providing upper bounds of order $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{K/n})$, up to logarithmic factors, where $n$ represents the budget and $K$ denotes the number of arms. Furthermore, we demonstrate through empirical results that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Abstraction is a commonly used process to represent some low-level system by a more coarse specification with the goal to omit unnecessary details while preserving important aspects. While recent work on abstraction in the situation calculus has focused on non-probabilistic domains, we describe an approach to abstraction of probabilistic and dynamic systems. Based on a variant of the situation calculus with probabilistic belief, we define a notion of bisimulation that allows to abstract a detailed probabilistic basic action theory with noisy actuators and sensors by a possibly non-stochastic basic action theory. By doing so, we obtain abstract Golog programs that omit unnecessary details and which can be translated back to a detailed program for actual execution. This simplifies the implementation of noisy robot programs, opens up the possibility of using non-stochastic reasoning methods (e.g., planning) on probabilistic problems, and provides domain descriptions that are more easily understandable and explainable.

Staring closely at the screen, Jordan Wright deftly picks out a barely distinguishable shape with his mouse, bringing to life a stark blue outline from a blur of overexposed features. It is a process similar to the automated tests that teach computers to distinguish humans from machines, by asking someone to identify traffic lights or stop signs in a picture known as a Captcha. Only in Wright's case, the shape turns out to be of a Tupolev Tu-160, a supersonic strategic heavy bomber, parked on a Russian base. The outline -- one of hundreds a day he picks out from satellite images -- is training an algorithm so that a US intelligence agency can locate and identify Moscow's firepower in an automated flash. It has become a run-of-the-mill task for the 25-year-old, who describes himself as on the autism spectrum. Starting in the spring, Wright began working at Enabled Intelligence Inc, a Virginia-based start-up that works largely for US intelligence and other federal agencies.

Staring closely at the screen, Jordan Wright deftly picks out a barely distinguishable shape with his mouse, bringing to life a stark blue outline from a blur of overexposed features. It's a process similar to the automated tests that teach computers to distinguish humans from machines, by asking someone to identify traffic lights or stop signs in a picture known as a Captcha. Only in Wright's case, the shape turns out to be of a Tupolev Tu-160, a supersonic strategic heavy bomber, parked on a Russian base. The outline -- one of hundreds a day he picks out from satellite images -- is training an algorithm so a US intelligence agency can locate and identify Moscow's firepower in an automated flash. It's become a run-of-the-mill task for the 25-year-old, who describes himself as on the autism spectrum. Starting in the spring, Wright began working at Enabled Intelligence, a Virginia-based startup that works largely for US intelligence and other federal agencies.

Autonomous Systems (AS) like Humanoid Robots, Autonomous Vehicles, or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles are becoming increasingly complex and need to interact with dynamic environments and with each other. For this reason, robots require tools to enable advanced perception and understanding of the environment, or capabilities to operate in complex situations. Artificial Intelligence is extending the capability of perception and action of the agents and allows robots to operate in environments not suitable for robots just a few years ago. In most common scenarios the complexity of the environment requires to the robot to have different skills, the capability of different actions, and hence also a certain degree of reasoning and understanding of which action to take and when. A relevant example could be an urban road, with car, pedestrian, and signals.

Previous studies have proved that cross-lingual knowledge distillation can significantly improve the performance of pre-trained models for cross-lingual similarity matching tasks. However, the student model needs to be large in this operation. Otherwise, its performance will drop sharply, thus making it impractical to be deployed to memory-limited devices. To address this issue, we delve into cross-lingual knowledge distillation and propose a multi-stage distillation framework for constructing a small-size but high-performance cross-lingual model. In our framework, contrastive learning, bottleneck, and parameter recurrent strategies are combined to prevent performance from being compromised during the compression process. The experimental results demonstrate that our method can compress the size of XLM-R and MiniLM by more than 50\%, while the performance is only reduced by about 1%.

Climate projections suffer from uncertain equilibrium climate sensitivity. The reason behind this uncertainty is the resolution of global climate models, which is too coarse to resolve key processes such as clouds and convection. These processes are approximated using heuristics in a process called parameterization. The selection of these parameters can be subjective, leading to significant uncertainties in the way clouds are represented in global climate models. Here, we explore three deep network algorithms to infer these parameters in an objective and data-driven way. We compare the performance of a fully-connected network, a one-dimensional and, a two-dimensional convolutional networks to recover the underlying parameters of the Lorenz-96 model, a non-linear dynamical system that has similar behavior to the climate system.