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Probabilistic Wildfire Susceptibility from Remote Sensing Using Random Forests and SHAP

Cheerala, Udaya Bhasker, Chirukuri, Varun Teja, Gummadi, Venkata Akhil Kumar, Bhuyan, Jintu Moni, Damacharla, Praveen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wildfires pose a significant global threat to ecosystems worldwide, with California experiencing recurring fires due to various factors, including climate, topographical features, vegetation patterns, and human activities. This study aims to develop a comprehensive wildfire risk map for California by applying the random forest (RF) algorithm, augmented with Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to interpret model predictions. Model performance was assessed using both spatial and temporal validation strategies. The RF model demonstrated strong predictive performance, achieving near-perfect discrimination for grasslands (AUC = 0.996) and forests (AUC = 0.997). Spatial cross-validation revealed moderate transferability, yielding ROC-AUC values of 0.6155 for forests and 0.5416 for grasslands. In contrast, temporal split validation showed enhanced generalization, especially for forests (ROC-AUC = 0.6615, PR-AUC = 0.8423). SHAP-based XAI analysis identified key ecosystem-specific drivers: soil organic carbon, tree cover, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) emerged as the most influential in forests, whereas Land Surface Temperature (LST), elevation, and vegetation health indices were dominant in grasslands. District-level classification revealed that Central Valley and Northern Buttes districts had the highest concentration of high-risk grasslands, while Northern Buttes and North Coast Redwoods dominated forested high-risk areas. This RF-SHAP framework offers a robust, comprehensible, and adaptable method for assessing wildfire risks, enabling informed decisions and creating targeted strategies to mitigate dangers.


Learning and Interpreting Gravitational-Wave Features from CNNs with a Random Forest Approach

Tian, Jun, Wang, He, He, Jibo, Pan, Yu, Cao, Shuo, Jiang, Qingquan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have become widely adopted in gravitational wave (GW) detection pipelines due to their ability to automatically learn hierarchical features from raw strain data. However, the physical meaning of these learned features remains underexplored, limiting the interpretability of such models. In this work, we propose a hybrid architecture that combines a CNN-based feature extractor with a random forest (RF) classifier to improve both detection performance and interpretability. Unlike prior approaches that directly connect classifiers to CNN outputs, our method introduces four physically interpretable metrics - variance, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), waveform overlap, and peak amplitude - computed from the final convolutional layer. These are jointly used with the CNN output in the RF classifier to enable more informed decision boundaries. Tested on long-duration strain datasets, our hybrid model outperforms a baseline CNN model, achieving a relative improvement of 21\% in sensitivity at a fixed false alarm rate of 10 events per month. Notably, it also shows improved detection of low-SNR signals (SNR $\le$ 10), which are especially vulnerable to misclassification in noisy environments. Feature attribution via the RF model reveals that both CNN-extracted and handcrafted features contribute significantly to classification decisions, with learned variance and CNN outputs ranked among the most informative. These findings suggest that physically motivated post-processing of CNN feature maps can serve as a valuable tool for interpretable and efficient GW detection, bridging the gap between deep learning and domain knowledge.


Harnessing Chain-of-Thought Metadata for Task Routing and Adversarial Prompt Detection

Marinelli, Ryan, Pichlmeier, Josef, Bisztray, Tamas

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we propose a metric called "Number of Thoughts (NofT)" to determine the difficulty of tasks pre-prompting and support Large Language Models (LLMs) in production contexts. By setting thresholds based on the number of thoughts, this metric can discern the difficulty of prompts and support more effective prompt routing. A 2% decrease in latency is achieved when routing prompts from the MathInstruct dataset through quantized, distilled versions of Deepseek with 1.7 billion, 7 billion, and 14 billion parameters. Moreover, this metric can be used to detect adversarial prompts used in prompt injection attacks with high efficacy. The Number of Thoughts can inform a classifier that achieves 95% accuracy in adversarial prompt detection.


Similarity Trajectories: Linking Sampling Process to Artifacts in Diffusion-Generated Images

Menn, Dennis, Liang, Feng, Chiang, Hung-Yueh, Marculescu, Diana

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artifact detection algorithms are crucial to correcting the output generated by diffusion models. However, because of the variety of artifact forms, existing methods require substantial annotated data for training. This requirement limits their scalability and efficiency, which restricts their wide application. This paper shows that the similarity of denoised images between consecutive time steps during the sampling process is related to the severity of artifacts in images generated by diffusion models. Building on this observation, we introduce the concept of Similarity Trajectory to characterize the sampling process and its correlation with the image artifacts presented. Using an annotated data set of 680 images, which is only 0.1% of the amount of data used in the prior work, we trained a classifier on these trajectories to predict the presence of artifacts in images. By performing 10-fold validation testing on the balanced annotated data set, the classifier can achieve an accuracy of 72.35%, highlighting the connection between the Similarity Trajectory and the occurrence of artifacts. This approach enables differentiation between artifact-exhibiting and natural-looking images using limited training data.


iCost: A Novel Instance Complexity Based Cost-Sensitive Learning Framework

Newaz, Asif, Adib, Asif Ur Rahman, Jabid, Taskeed

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Class imbalance in data presents significant challenges for classification tasks. It is fairly common and requires careful handling to obtain desirable performance. Traditional classification algorithms become biased toward the majority class. One way to alleviate the scenario is to make the classifiers cost-sensitive. This is achieved by assigning a higher misclassification cost to minority-class instances. One issue with this implementation is that all the minority-class instances are treated equally, and assigned with the same penalty value. However, the learning difficulties of all the instances are not the same. Instances that are located in the overlapping region or near the decision boundary are harder to classify, whereas those further away are easier. Without taking into consideration the instance complexity and naively weighting all the minority-class samples uniformly, results in an unwarranted bias and consequently, a higher number of misclassifications of the majority-class instances. This is undesirable and to overcome the situation, we propose a novel instance complexity-based cost-sensitive approach (termed 'iCost') in this study. We first categorize all the minority-class instances based on their difficulty level and then the instances are penalized accordingly. This ensures a more equitable instance weighting and prevents excessive penalization. The performance of the proposed approach is tested on 65 binary and 10 multiclass imbalanced datasets against the traditional cost-sensitive learning frameworks. A significant improvement in performance has been observed, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.


Sampling and active learning methods for network reliability estimation using K-terminal spanning tree

Ding, Chen, Wei, Pengfei, Shi, Yan, Liu, Jinxing, Broggi, Matteo, Beer, Michael

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Network reliability analysis remains a challenge due to the increasing size and complexity of networks. This paper presents a novel sampling method and an active learning method for efficient and accurate network reliability estimation under node failure and edge failure scenarios. The proposed sampling method adopts Monte Carlo technique to sample component lifetimes and the K-terminal spanning tree algorithm to accelerate structure function computation. Unlike existing methods that compute only one structure function value per sample, our method generates multiple component state vectors and corresponding structure function values from each sample. Network reliability is estimated based on survival signatures derived from these values. A transformation technique extends this method to handle both node failure and edge failure. To enhance efficiency of proposed sampling method and achieve adaptability to network topology changes, we introduce an active learning method utilizing a random forest (RF) classifier. This classifier directly predicts structure function values, integrates network behaviors across diverse topologies, and undergoes iterative refinement to enhance predictive accuracy. Importantly, the trained RF classifier can directly predict reliability for variant networks, a capability beyond the sampling method alone. Through investigating several network examples and two practical applications, the effectiveness of both proposed methods is demonstrated.


Multiple-Input Auto-Encoder Guided Feature Selection for IoT Intrusion Detection Systems

Dinh, Phai Vu, Nguyen, Diep N., Hoang, Dinh Thai, Nguyen, Quang Uy, Dutkiewicz, Eryk, Bao, Son Pham

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While intrusion detection systems (IDSs) benefit from the diversity and generalization of IoT data features, the data diversity (e.g., the heterogeneity and high dimensions of data) also makes it difficult to train effective machine learning models in IoT IDSs. This also leads to potentially redundant/noisy features that may decrease the accuracy of the detection engine in IDSs. This paper first introduces a novel neural network architecture called Multiple-Input Auto-Encoder (MIAE). MIAE consists of multiple sub-encoders that can process inputs from different sources with different characteristics. The MIAE model is trained in an unsupervised learning mode to transform the heterogeneous inputs into lower-dimensional representation, which helps classifiers distinguish between normal behaviour and different types of attacks. To distil and retain more relevant features but remove less important/redundant ones during the training process, we further design and embed a feature selection layer right after the representation layer of MIAE resulting in a new model called MIAEFS. This layer learns the importance of features in the representation vector, facilitating the selection of informative features from the representation vector. The results on three IDS datasets, i.e., NSLKDD, UNSW-NB15, and IDS2017, show the superior performance of MIAE and MIAEFS compared to other methods, e.g., conventional classifiers, dimensionality reduction models, unsupervised representation learning methods with different input dimensions, and unsupervised feature selection models. Moreover, MIAE and MIAEFS combined with the Random Forest (RF) classifier achieve accuracy of 96.5% in detecting sophisticated attacks, e.g., Slowloris. The average running time for detecting an attack sample using RF with the representation of MIAE and MIAEFS is approximate 1.7E-6 seconds, whilst the model size is lower than 1 MB.


Age-Stratified Differences in Morphological Connectivity Patterns in ASD: An sMRI and Machine Learning Approach

Manoj, Gokul, Sengar, Sandeep Singh, Ronickom, Jac Fredo Agastinose

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Purpose: Age biases have been identified as an essential factor in the diagnosis of ASD. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of different age groups in classifying ASD using morphological features (MF) and morphological connectivity features (MCF). Methods: The structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data for the study was obtained from the two publicly available databases, ABIDE-I and ABIDE-II. We considered three age groups, 6 to 11, 11 to 18, and 6 to 18, for our analysis. The sMRI data was pre-processed using a standard pipeline and was then parcellated into 148 different regions according to the Destrieux atlas. The area, thickness, volume, and mean curvature information was then extracted for each region which was used to create a total of 592 MF and 10,878 MCF for each subject. Significant features were identified using a statistical t-test (p<0.05) which was then used to train a random forest (RF) classifier. Results: The results of our study suggested that the performance of the 6 to 11 age group was the highest, followed by the 6 to 18 and 11 to 18 ages in both MF and MCF. Overall, the MCF with RF in the 6 to 11 age group performed better in the classification than the other groups and produced an accuracy, F1 score, recall, and precision of 75.8%, 83.1%, 86%, and 80.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Our study thus demonstrates that morphological connectivity and age-related diagnostic model could be an effective approach to discriminating ASD.


Distinguishing ChatGPT(-3.5, -4)-generated and human-written papers through Japanese stylometric analysis

Zaitsu, Wataru, Jin, Mingzhe

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the first half of 2023, text-generative artificial intelligence (AI), including ChatGPT, equipped with GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, from OpenAI, has attracted considerable attention worldwide. In this study, first, we compared Japanese stylometric features of texts generated by GPT (-3.5 and -4) and those written by humans. In this work, we performed multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) to confirm the distributions of 216 texts of three classes (72 academic papers written by 36 single authors, 72 texts generated by GPT-3.5, and 72 texts generated by GPT-4 on the basis of the titles of the aforementioned papers) focusing on the following stylometric features: (1) bigrams of parts-of-speech, (2) bigram of postpositional particle words, (3) positioning of commas, and (4) rate of function words. MDS revealed distinct distributions at each stylometric feature of GPT (-3.5 and -4) and human. Although GPT-4 is more powerful than GPT-3.5 because it has more parameters, both GPT (-3.5 and -4) distributions are likely to overlap. These results indicate that although the number of parameters may increase in the future, GPT-generated texts may not be close to that written by humans in terms of stylometric features. Second, we verified the classification performance of random forest (RF) for two classes (GPT and human) focusing on Japanese stylometric features. This study revealed the high performance of RF in each stylometric feature: The RF classifier focusing on the rate of function words achieved 98.1% accuracy. Furthermore the RF classifier focusing on all stylometric features reached 100% in terms of all performance indexes (accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 score). This study concluded that at this stage we human discriminate ChatGPT from human limited to Japanese language.


A Machine Learning Approach to Detect Dehydration in Afghan Children

Momand, Ziaullah, Pal, Debajyoti, Mongkolnam, Pornchai, Chan, Jonathan H.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Child dehydration is a significant health concern, especially among children under 5 years of age who are more susceptible to diarrhea and vomiting. In Afghanistan, severe diarrhea contributes to child mortality due to dehydration. However, there is no evidence of research exploring the potential of machine learning techniques in diagnosing dehydration in Afghan children under five. To fill this gap, this study leveraged various classifiers such as Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, Support Vector Machine, J48, and Logistic Regression to develop a predictive model using a dataset of sick children retrieved from the Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey (ADHS). The primary objective was to determine the dehydration status of children under 5 years. Among all the classifiers, Random Forest proved to be the most effective, achieving an accuracy of 91.46%, precision of 91%, and AUC of 94%. This model can potentially assist healthcare professionals in promptly and accurately identifying dehydration in under five children, leading to timely interventions, and reducing the risk of severe health complications. Our study demonstrates the potential of machine learning techniques in improving the early diagnosis of dehydration in Afghan children.