Frontier reasoning models are produced by posttraining base language models with reinforcement learning. Recent work has challenged this by showing that sampling from a sharpened version of the base model's distribution, a so-called power distribution, elicits comparable reasoning without additional training, curated datasets, or verifiers. However, making this method practical requires efficiently sampling from the power distribution. A sampler needs to "mix" to the power distribution, which necessitates moving between modes of the target distribution; intuitively, e.g., trying different reasoning strategies. The samplers proposed in prior works repeatedly select a "cut" position in the current reasoning trace uniformly at random and resample the suffix from that position onward. However, reasoning traces typically contain a few consequential decisions (e.g., the choice of proof strategy or algorithm), and we observe that a uniformly chosen cut tends to rewrite local details rather than revisit decision points. We introduce an algorithm (Entropy-Cut Metropolis-Hastings) that uses the base model's next-token entropy as a proxy to identify key decision points and resample from those positions. We empirically verify that entropy jumps are a useful proxy for decision points and, in a stylized model of reasoning, prove that our method's mixing time scales with the number of decisions in a trace rather than with the number of tokens, which can be much larger. Across MATH500, HumanEval, GPQA Diamond, and AIME26, our method consistently improves over baselines and RL-trained models.

We study inference-time alignment for diffusion-based generative models, aiming to steer a base model toward high-reward outputs without updating its weights. Recent Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)-based steering methods approximate reward-tilted target distributions in a principled way, but their proposals remain largely tied to the base sampler. Since reward information is mainly used after propagation through particle reweighting and resampling, these methods can require large particle budgets and suffer from weight degeneracy and high-variance estimates. One way to reduce variance and improve particle efficiency is to iteratively learn twisting functions that provide look-ahead guidance, as in twisted SMC. However, existing learnable twisting methods are developed mainly for classical sequential inference and can be unstable when applied to diffusion-based alignment with high-dimensional state spaces and terminal, noisy, or black-box rewards. We propose Trust-Region Iterative Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (TRI-TSMC), a trust-region framework for learning twisting functions in SMC-based inference-time alignment. Each iteration computes an exact KL-constrained update in path space, which admits a closed-form solution by tempered importance reweighting, and projects this target back to the parameterized twisted family by weighted maximum likelihood. Theoretically, we formalize the value-function interpretation of the optimal twisting function and show that it yields a zero-variance sampler. We prove that the trust-region update follows an escort path toward the target distribution, that the weighted maximum-likelihood update is a forward-KL projection, and that the path reduces residual importance-weight variance. Empirically, TRI-TSMC improves primary alignment objectives on discrete diffusion text generation and text-to-image generation under matched inference-time budgets.

A local specialist LLM, fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) on operator-local data, is installed in a regulated organization with per-deployment error budget $α$. The operator needs a safety certificate for this deployment's stream at every round: no pooling across deployments, no waiting for a long-run average. Existing wrappers cannot deliver this on adaptive, online-updated streams: offline conformal-risk methods require exchangeability; online-conformal methods bound only long-run averages; non-exchangeable extensions are marginally valid; and the closest anytime wrapper, A-RCPS, controls marginal rather than selective risk. Using a (test statistic, validity guarantee, deployment rule) framework, we identify one empty cell forced by deployment requirements: e-process per threshold, selective risk, anytime-pathwise validity, max-certified-threshold rule. Conformal Selective Acting (CSA) fills it as a per-round wrapper maintaining a Ville-type e-process per threshold on a Bonferroni grid, evaluated against the RLVR filtration. Under predictable updates and isotonic-calibrated monotone risk we prove (i) an anytime-pathwise selective-risk bound $R_T^{\mathrm{act}}\leα+O(N_T^{-1/2})$, (ii) rate-optimal certification matching $Θ(\barη^{-2}\log(1/δ))$, and (iii) a horizon-independent release-rate gap. Across eight specialist benchmarks ($480$ streams), sixteen adversarial distribution-shift cells ($160$ streams), and five live Expert-Iteration RLVR cells with online LoRA over four base models in three architecture families ($10{,}300$ rounds), CSA is the only method among ten compared that satisfies pathwise validity and non-refusing deployment on every cell. We do not propose a new LLM, training algorithm, or policy class; CSA is the deployment-side complement, orthogonal to the model, for operators who cannot use a frontier API.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has emerged as a powerful algorithm for improving the reasoning capabilities of language models, but often fails to improve small models due to sparse rewards on difficult tasks. Existing works mitigate this issue by leveraging a larger model, either to provide hints for rollouts or to provide dense reward signals through knowledge distillation (KD). However, this assumes the existence of such an oracle, and training one can significantly increase total training time. In this work, we propose CoDistill-GRPO, a co-distillation algorithm that simultaneously trains a large and a small model by maximizing carefully designed GRPO objectives. The two models learn from each other: the small model uses an on-policy KD reward to learn from the large model's distribution, while the large model is updated using rollouts generated by the small model with importance reweighting, reducing the computational overhead of rollout generation. We show that CoDistill-GRPO substantially improves small model performance over standard GRPO on mathematical benchmarks across both Qwen and Llama models. Specifically, with Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, we observe an accuracy increase of over 11.6 percentage points over the base model and an additional 6.0 percentage points over GRPO on the Minerva dataset. Interestingly, the larger model (Qwen2.5-Math-7B) trained with CoDistill-GRPO nearly matches standard GRPO performance despite training on small-model rollouts. This highlights CoDistill-GRPO as a cost-effective alternative to GRPO for larger models, yielding an approximate 18% speedup, which may be of independent interest.

Inference-time LLM alignment methods, particularly activation steering, offer an alternative to fine-tuning by directly modifying activations during generation. Existing methods, however, often rely on non-anticipative interventions that ignore how perturbations propagate through transformer layers and lack online error feedback, resulting in suboptimal, open-loop control. To address this, we show empirically that, despite the nonlinear structure of transformer blocks, layer-wise dynamics across multiple LLM architectures and scales are well-approximated by locally-linear models. Exploiting this property, we model LLM inference as a linear time-varying dynamical system and adapt the classical linear quadratic regulator to compute feedback controllers using layer-wise Jacobians, steering activations toward desired semantic setpoints in closed-loop with minimal computational overhead and no offline training. We also derive theoretical bounds on setpoint tracking error, enabling formal guarantees on steering performance. Using a novel adaptive semantic feature setpoint signal, our method yields robust, fine-grained behavior control across models, scales, and tasks, including state-of-the-art modulation of toxicity, truthfulness, refusal, and arbitrary concepts, surpassing baseline steering methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/trustworthyrobotics/lqr-activation-steering

We introduce a principled probabilistic framework for reward-guided decoding in large language models, addressing the limitations of standard decoding methods that optimize token-level likelihood rather than sequence-level quality. Our method defines a reward-augmented target distribution over complete sequences by combining model transition probabilities with prefix-dependent reward potentials. Importantly, the approach is training-free: it leaves model weights unchanged and instead modifies the inference distribution via reward potentials, with all gains arising purely from inference-time sampling. To sample from this distribution, we develop Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, including a computationally efficient prefix-only variant and a lookahead variant whose intermediate targets match the exact marginals of the full sequence distribution. The framework also integrates resample-move updates with Metropolis-Hastings rejuvenation and supports block-wise generation, subsuming common decoding strategies such as temperature sampling and power-tempered objectives. Empirical results across three 7B models show significant gains. On code generation (HumanEval), our method improves base performance by up to 54.9% and surpasses the strongest sampling baselines by 9.1%-15.3%. On mathematical reasoning (MATH500), it achieves gains of up to 8.8%. Notably, it reaches 87.8% on HumanEval and 78.4% on MATH500 with Qwen2.5-7B, consistently outperforming the reinforcement learning method GRPO.

Can classifier-based safety gates maintain reliable oversight as AI systems improve over hundreds of iterations? We provide comprehensive empirical evidence that they cannot. On a self-improving neural controller (d=240), eighteen classifier configurations -- spanning MLPs, SVMs, random forests, k-NN, Bayesian classifiers, and deep networks -- all fail the dual conditions for safe self-improvement. Three safe RL baselines (CPO, Lyapunov, safety shielding) also fail. Results extend to MuJoCo benchmarks (Reacher-v4 d=496, Swimmer-v4 d=1408, HalfCheetah-v4 d=1824). At controlled distribution separations up to delta_s=2.0, all classifiers still fail -- including the NP-optimal test and MLPs with 100% training accuracy -- demonstrating structural impossibility. We then show the impossibility is specific to classification, not to safe self-improvement itself. A Lipschitz ball verifier achieves zero false accepts across dimensions d in {84, 240, 768, 2688, 5760, 9984, 17408} using provable analytical bounds (unconditional delta=0). Ball chaining enables unbounded parameter-space traversal: on MuJoCo Reacher-v4, 10 chains yield +4.31 reward improvement with delta=0; on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct during LoRA fine-tuning, 42 chain transitions traverse 234x the single-ball radius with zero safety violations across 200 steps. A 50-prompt oracle confirms oracle-agnosticity. Compositional per-group verification enables radii up to 37x larger than full-network balls. At d<=17408, delta=0 is unconditional; at LLM scale, conditional on estimated Lipschitz constants.

While test-time scaling has enabled large language models to solve highly difficult tasks, state-of-the-art results come at exorbitant compute costs. These inefficiencies can be attributed to the miscalibration of post-trained language models, and the lack of calibration in popular sampling techniques. Here, we present Online Reasoning Calibration (ORCA), a framework for calibrating the sampling process that draws upon conformal prediction and test-time training. Specifically, we introduce a meta-learning procedure that updates the calibration module for each input. This allows us to provide valid confidence estimates under distributional shift, e.g. in thought patterns that occur across different stages of reasoning, or in prompt distributions between model development and deployment. ORCA not only provides theoretical guarantees on conformal risks, but also empirically shows higher efficiency and generalization across different reasoning tasks. At risk level $δ=0.1$, ORCA improves Qwen2.5-32B efficiency on in-distribution tasks with savings up to 47.5% with supervised labels and 40.7% with self-consistency labels. Under zero-shot out-of-domain settings, it improves MATH-500 savings from 24.8% of the static calibration baseline to 67.0% while maintaining a low empirical error rate, and the same trend holds across model families and downstream benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/wzekai99/ORCA.

We study the problem of routing queries to large language models (LLMs) under cost, GPU resources, and concurrency constraints. Prior per-query routing methods often fail to control batch-level cost, especially under non-uniform or adversarial batching. To address this, we propose a batch-level, resource-aware routing framework that jointly optimizes model assignment for each batch while respecting cost and model capacity limits. We further introduce a robust variant that accounts for uncertainty in predicted LLM performance, along with an offline instance allocation procedure that balances quality and throughput across multiple models. Experiments on two multi-task LLM benchmarks show that robustness improves accuracy by 1-14% over non-robust counterparts (depending on the performance estimator), batch-level routing outperforms per-query methods by up to 24% under adversarial batching, and optimized instance allocation yields additional gains of up to 3% compared to a non-optimized allocation, all while strictly controlling cost and GPU resource constraints.

Despite the success of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in aligning language models, current reward modeling heavily relies on experimental feedback data collected from human annotators under controlled and costly conditions. In this work, we introduce observational reward modeling -- learning reward models with observational user feedback (e.g., clicks, copies, and upvotes) -- as a scalable and cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in this setting: (1) observational feedback is noisy due to annotation errors, which deviates it from true user preference; (2) observational feedback is biased by user preference, where users preferentially provide feedback on responses they feel strongly about, which creats a distribution shift between training and inference data. To address these challenges, we propose CausalRM, a causal-theoretic reward modeling framework that aims to learn unbiased reward models from observational feedback. To tackle challenge (1), CausalRM introduces a noise-aware surrogate loss term that is provably equivalent to the primal loss under noise-free conditions by explicitly modeling the annotation error generation process. To tackle challenge (2), CausalRM uses propensity scores -- the probability of a user providing feedback for a given response -- to reweight training samples, yielding a loss function that eliminates user preference bias. Extensive experiments across diverse LLM backbones and benchmark datasets validate that CausalRM effectively learns accurate reward signals from noisy and biased observational feedback and delivers substantial performance improvements on downstream RLHF tasks -- including a 49.2% gain on WildGuardMix and a 32.7% improvement on HarmBench. Code is available on our project website.