Efficient vision transformer remains a bottleneck for high-resolution images and long-video related real-world applications.

The increasing number of satellites and orbital debris has made space congestion a critical issue, threatening satellite safety and sustainability. Challenges such as collision avoidance, station-keeping, and orbital maneuvering require advanced techniques to handle dynamic uncertainties and multi-agent interactions. Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in this domain, enabling adaptive, autonomous policies for space operations; however, many existing RL frameworks rely on custom-built environments developed from scratch, which often use simplified models and require significant time to implement and validate the orbital dynamics, limiting their ability to fully capture real-world complexities. To address this, we introduce OrbitZoo, a versatile multi-agent RL environment built on a highfidelity industry standard library, that enables realistic data generation, supports scenarios like collision avoidance and cooperative maneuvers, and ensures robust and accurate orbital dynamics. The environment is validated against various real satellite constellations, including Starlink, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.16% compared to real-world data. This validation ensures reliability for generating high-fidelity simulations and enabling autonomous and independent satellite operations. This project is open source1 and has a dedicated project page2.

Modern recurrent architectures, such as xLSTM and Mamba, have recently challenged the Transformer in language modeling. However, their structure constrains their applicability to sequences only or requires processing multi-dimensional data structures, such as images or molecular graphs, in a pre-defined sequential order. In contrast, Multi-Dimensional RNNs (MDRNNs) are well suited for data with a higher level structure, like 2D grids, trees, and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). In this work, we extend the notion of multi-dimensionality to linear RNNs. We introduce parallelizable Linear Source Transition Mark networks (pLSTMs) using Source, Transition, and Mark gates that act on the linegraph of a general DAG. This enables parallelization in analogy to parallel associative scans and the chunkwise-recurrent form of sequential linear RNNs, but for DAGs. For regular grids (1D and 2D), like images, this scheme can be efficiently implemented using einsum operations, concatenations, and padding in logarithmic time.

Causal-discovery algorithms return a directed graph, yet provide no principled means of distinguishing edge directions identified by the data from those assigned without an identifying assumption. Under the standard Markov and faithfulness conditions, the observational distribution identifies only a Markov equivalence class; orientations within that class are not determined by the joint distribution and cannot be recovered from additional samples alone, but require either a functional restriction or an intervention. We introduce a protocol for observational causal discovery on continuous data that attaches to each candidate edge a discrete impossibility certificate: a RESOLVED code records the identifiability theorem under which the direction was committed, while an IMPOSSIBLE code records the failure mode together with the specific question a domain expert must answer to resolve it. The bivariate cascade is extended with five gated identifiability tiers LSNM, IGCI, Stein, MDL, and PEIT that abstain when their precondition test rejects. Two oracle primitives, the meta-hub query and the node-children query, jointly establish an upper bound of $1+K$ expert interactions sufficient to recover any DAG, where $K$ denotes the number of non-leaf vertices. Under an ideal-oracle assumption, the bound is met exactly on the asia, sachs, child, and alarm benchmarks.

This paper studies the joint role of long-memory dynamics,rough-volatility behavior, and persistence-based forecasting features in equity volatility modeling. We combine semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions to examine whether persistence measures contain economically meaningful forecasting information beyond conventional volatility predictors. Using a panel of 115 S&P500 constituents from November 2001 through April 2026, we document that volatility proxies exhibit substantial long-memory behavior and locally rough dynamics. The cross-sectional mean Geweke-Porter-Hudak estimate of the memory parameter is $\hat{d} = 0.226$, while the corresponding local-Whittle estimate is $\hat{d} = 0.440$, with statistical significance observed across nearly the entire panel. Rolling estimates of persistence rise substantially during the global financial crisis and the COVID period and display a positive contemporaneous association with the VIX. We then examine whether persistence-related features improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts beyond standard HAR and HAR-X benchmarks. Incorporating cross-sectional persistence aggregates, sectoral persistence measures, and persistence-by-stress interaction terms produces moderate but statistically significant forecasting improvements, particularly at longer horizons and during stress regimes. Forecast gains are strongest during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications. The results suggest that persistence measures may serve as useful reduced-form indicators of the duration and propagation of uncertainty in financial markets, although the paper does not claim structural identification of the economic mechanisms generating persistence.

We develop a mean-field theory of dropout as a perturbation of critical signal propagation at the edge of chaos. Dropout shifts the perfect-alignment fixed point, making the depth scale for information propagation finite even at critical initialization. We derive critical and crossover scaling laws for correlation decay and establish that smooth activations and kinked, ReLU-like activations constitute distinct universality classes, with different critical exponents and a universal two-parameter scaling collapse in detuning and dropout strength. The distinction traces to the analytic structure of the correlation map: smooth activations admit a Taylor expansion near perfect alignment, while kinked activations develop a branch point with universal non-analyticity. As a corollary, the framework yields saturated dropout profiles under fixed budget; a rank-flow tie-breaker then selects front-loaded schedules, substantially reducing held-out test loss at no extra computational cost, with accuracy gains as a consistent secondary effect. We test the predictions in MLPs and Vision Transformers and discuss CNN/ResNet extensions.

We consider one-hidden layer neural networks trained in the feature-learning regime using gradient descent, and relate the output of the finite-width network $f_{\hatρ_t^m}$ to its infinite-width counterpart $f_{ρ_t^{MF}}$, which evolves in the mean-field dynamics. While constant-time horizon bounds for $\|f_{ρ_t^{MF}} - f_{\hatρ_t^m}\|$ may be obtained via standard Grönwall estimates, the long-time behavior of the fluctuation is a more delicate matter. Uniform-in-time bounds often rely on (local) strong convexity in the landscape or Logarithmic Sobolev inequalities present in noisy gradient dynamics. In this work, we establish non-asymptotic weak propagation-of-chaos that holds uniformly in time, obtained by exploiting instead the convergence rate of the mean-field deterministic Wasserstein-gradient-flow dynamics. Specifically, denoting by $L_t$ the mean-field excess MSE loss at time $t$ and $m$ the number of neurons, under standard regularity assumptions and the condition $\int_0^\infty L_t^{1/2} dt =O(\log d)$, we obtain the uniform in time bound $\|f_{ρ_t^{MF}}- f_{\hatρ_t^m}\|^2 \lesssim \text{poly}(d) m^{-\min(1,c/6)}$ whenever $L_t \lesssim t^{-c}$. Our result holds in a noiseless setting and does not make any assumptions on the geometry of the landscape near the optimum, and extends seamlessly to other forms of discretization, including finite number of samples and time discretization. A key takeaway of our result is that whenever the convergence rate of the mean-field, population-loss dynamics is faster than $t^{-2}$, we can attain a loss of $ε$ with only $\text{poly}(d/ε)$ neurons, training samples, and GD steps.

By far the most common way to estimate an expected loss in machine learning is to draw samples, compute the loss on each one, and take the empirical average. However, sampling is not necessarily optimal. Given an MLP at initialization, we show how to estimate its expected output over Gaussian inputs without running samples through the network at all. Instead, we produce approximate representations of the distributions of activations at each layer, leveraging tools such as cumulants and Hermite expansions. We show both theoretically and empirically that for sufficiently wide networks, our estimator achieves a target mean squared error using substantially fewer FLOPs than Monte Carlo sampling. We find moreover that our methods perform particularly well at estimating the probabilities of rare events, and additionally demonstrate how they can be used for model training. Together, these findings suggest a path to producing models with a greatly reduced probability of catastrophic tail risks.

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