For example, in the Pandemic Response Challenge experiment, the context consisted of data about the geographic region for which the predictions were made, e.g., historical data of COVID-19 cases and intervention policies; actions were future schedules of intervention policies for the region; and outcomes were predicted future cases of COVID-19 along with the stringency

This short, written report introduces the idea of Evolutionary Surrogate-Assisted Prescription (ESP) and presents preliminary results on its potential use in training real-world agents as a part of the 1st AI for Drinking Water Chlorination Challenge at IJCAI-2025. This work was done by a team from Project Resilience, an organization interested in bridging AI to real-world problems.

Solving societal problems on a global scale requires the collection and processing of ideas and methods from diverse sets of international experts. As the number and diversity of human experts increase, so does the likelihood that elements in this collective knowledge can be combined and refined to discover novel and better solutions. However, it is difficult to identify, combine, and refine complementary information in an increasingly large and diverse knowledge base. This paper argues that artificial intelligence (AI) can play a crucial role in this process. An evolutionary AI framework, termed RHEA, fills this role by distilling knowledge from diverse models created by human experts into equivalent neural networks, which are then recombined and refined in a population-based search. The framework was implemented in a formal synthetic domain, demonstrating that it is transparent and systematic. It was then applied to the results of the XPRIZE Pandemic Response Challenge, in which over 100 teams of experts across 23 countries submitted models based on diverse methodologies to predict COVID-19 cases and suggest non-pharmaceutical intervention policies for 235 nations, states, and regions across the globe. Building upon this expert knowledge, by recombining and refining the 169 resulting policy suggestion models, RHEA discovered a broader and more effective set of policies than either AI or human experts alone, as evaluated based on real-world data. The results thus suggest that AI can play a crucial role in realizing the potential of human expertise in global problem-solving.

Diabetes, a chronic condition that impairs how the body turns food into energy, i.e. blood glucose, affects 38 million people in the US alone. The standard treatment is to supplement carbohydrate intake with an artificial pancreas, i.e. a continuous insulin pump (basal shots), as well as occasional insulin injections (bolus shots). The goal of the treatment is to keep blood glucose at the center of an acceptable range, as measured through a continuous glucose meter. A secondary goal is to minimize injections, which are unpleasant and difficult for some patients to implement. In this study, neuroevolution was used to discover an optimal strategy for the treatment. Based on a dataset of 30 days of treatment and measurements of a single patient, a random forest was first trained to predict future glucose levels. A neural network was then evolved to prescribe carbohydrates, basal pumping levels, and bolus injections. Evolution discovered a Pareto front that reduced deviation from the target and number of injections compared to the original data, thus improving patients' quality of life. To make the system easier to adopt, a language interface was developed with a large language model. Thus, these technologies not only improve patient care but also adoption in a broader population.

We develop a principled approach to end-to-end learning in stochastic optimization. First, we show that the standard end-to-end learning algorithm admits a Bayesian interpretation and trains a posterior Bayes action map. Building on the insights of this analysis, we then propose new end-to-end learning algorithms for training decision maps that output solutions of empirical risk minimization and distributionally robust optimization problems, two dominant modeling paradigms in optimization under uncertainty. Numerical results for a synthetic newsvendor problem illustrate the key differences between alternative training schemes. We also investigate an economic dispatch problem based on real data to showcase the impact of the neural network architecture of the decision maps on their test performance.

We study the problem of designing optimal learning and decision-making formulations when only historical data is available. Prior work typically commits to a particular class of data-driven formulation and subsequently tries to establish out-of-sample performance guarantees. We take here the opposite approach. We define first a sensible yard stick with which to measure the quality of any data-driven formulation and subsequently seek to find an optimal such formulation. Informally, any data-driven formulation can be seen to balance a measure of proximity of the estimated cost to the actual cost while guaranteeing a level of out-of-sample performance. Given an acceptable level of out-of-sample performance, we construct explicitly a data-driven formulation that is uniformly closer to the true cost than any other formulation enjoying the same out-of-sample performance. We show the existence of three distinct out-of-sample performance regimes (a superexponential regime, an exponential regime and a subexponential regime) between which the nature of the optimal data-driven formulation experiences a phase transition. The optimal data-driven formulations can be interpreted as a classically robust formulation in the superexponential regime, an entropic distributionally robust formulation in the exponential regime and finally a variance penalized formulation in the subexponential regime. This final observation unveils a surprising connection between these three, at first glance seemingly unrelated, data-driven formulations which until now remained hidden.

Several models have been developed to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, and how it could be contained with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing restrictions and school and business closures. This paper demonstrates how evolutionary AI could be used to facilitate the next step, i.e. determining most effective intervention strategies automatically. Through evolutionary surrogate-assisted prescription (ESP), it is possible to generate a large number of candidate strategies and evaluate them with predictive models. In principle, strategies can be customized for different countries and locales, and balance the need to contain the pandemic and the need to minimize their economic impact. While still limited by available data, early experiments suggest that workplace and school restrictions are the most important and need to be designed carefully. It also demonstrates that results of lifting restrictions can be unreliable, and suggests creative ways in which restrictions can be implemented softly, e.g. by alternating them over time. As more data becomes available, the approach can be increasingly useful in dealing with COVID-19 as well as possible future pandemics.

The science of applied artificial intelligence doesn't get the same kinds of headlines as the pure research efforts of Google or Facebook or others. Mostly that's because what gets built by companies is obfuscated by those same companies, either for proprietary reasons or because the companies actually have nothing much to speak of. Last week, Babak Hodjat, who runs the machine learning operations of software giant Cognizant Technology Solutions, had something to show, so ZDNet traveled to the loft office near San Francisco's Embarcadero where Hodjat and a team of 18 staffers develop algorithms. The ostensible event was the publication, on the arXiv pre-print server, of a paper showing how Hodjat's style of machine learning could compete with the kind made famous by DeepMind's AlphaZero. Before digging into the paper, ZDNet accepted a challenge against the machine, a game of Flappy Bird.

Evolution and decision-making are not immediately linked in our minds; however, as it turns out, algorithms inspired by biological evolution are the key to augmenting decision-making in a wide variety of business use-cases. But let's start with the problem statement. My team and I are continually engaged in conversations with enterprises from various industries about their expectations for artificial intelligence. Often, we learn they're seeking better ways to model the data that flows through their systems. These questions are all about using AI to produce more insights.