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Stability and Accuracy Trade-offs in Statistical Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Algorithmic stability is a central concept in statistics and learning theory that measures how sensitive an algorithm's output is to small changes in the training data. Stability plays a crucial role in understanding generalization, robustness, and replicability, and a variety of stability notions have been proposed in different learning settings. However, while stability entails desirable properties, it is typically not sufficient on its own for statistical learning -- and indeed, it may be at odds with accuracy, since an algorithm that always outputs a constant function is perfectly stable but statistically meaningless. Thus, it is essential to understand the potential statistical cost of stability. In this work, we address this question by adopting a statistical decision-theoretic perspective, treating stability as a constraint in estimation. Focusing on two representative notions-worst-case stability and average-case stability-we first establish general lower bounds on the achievable estimation accuracy under each type of stability constraint. We then develop optimal stable estimators for four canonical estimation problems, including several mean estimation and regression settings. Together, these results characterize the optimal trade-offs between stability and accuracy across these tasks. Our findings formalize the intuition that average-case stability imposes a qualitatively weaker restriction than worst-case stability, and they further reveal that the gap between these two can vary substantially across different estimation problems.



From Fragile to Certified: Wasserstein Audits of Group Fairness Under Distribution Shift

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Group-fairness metrics (e.g., equalized odds) can vary sharply across resamples and are especially brittle under distribution shift, undermining reliable audits. We propose a Wasserstein distributionally robust framework that certifies worst-case group fairness over a ball of plausible test distributions centered at the empirical law. Our formulation unifies common group fairness notions via a generic conditional-probability functional and defines $\varepsilon$-Wasserstein Distributional Fairness ($\varepsilon$-WDF) as the audit target. Leveraging strong duality, we derive tractable reformulations and an efficient estimator (DRUNE) for $\varepsilon$-WDF. We prove feasibility and consistency and establish finite-sample certification guarantees for auditing fairness, along with quantitative bounds under smoothness and margin conditions. Across standard benchmarks and classifiers, $\varepsilon$-WDF delivers stable fairness assessments under distribution shift, providing a principled basis for auditing and certifying group fairness beyond observational data.


Generalizing Behavior via Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Closed-Form Reward Centroids

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of generalizing an expert agent's behavior, provided through demonstrations, to new environments and/or additional constraints. Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) offers a promising solution by seeking to recover the expert's underlying reward function, which, if used for planning in the new settings, would reproduce the desired behavior. However, IRL is inherently ill-posed: multiple reward functions, forming the so-called feasible set, can explain the same observed behavior. Since these rewards may induce different policies in the new setting, in the absence of additional information, a decision criterion is needed to select which policy to deploy. In this paper, we propose a novel, principled criterion that selects the "average" policy among those induced by the rewards in a certain bounded subset of the feasible set. Remarkably, we show that this policy can be obtained by planning with the reward centroid of that subset, for which we derive a closed-form expression. We then present a provably efficient algorithm for estimating this centroid using an offline dataset of expert demonstrations only. Finally, we conduct numerical simulations that illustrate the relationship between the expert's behavior and the behavior produced by our method.



Introducing Combi-Stations in Robotic Mobile Fulfilment Systems: A Queueing-Theory-Based Efficiency Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the era of digital commerce, the surge in online shopping and the expectation for rapid delivery have placed unprecedented demands on warehouse operations. The traditional method of order fulfilment, where human order pickers traverse large storage areas to pick items, has become a bottleneck, consuming valuable time and resources. Robotic Mobile Fulfilment Systems (RMFS) offer a solution by using robots to transport storage racks directly to human-operated picking stations, eliminating the need for pickers to travel. This paper introduces'combi-stations'--a novel type of station that enables both item picking and replenishment, as opposed to traditional separate stations. We analyse the efficiency of combi-stations using queueing theory and demonstrate their potential to streamline warehouse operations. Our results suggest that combi-stations can reduce the number of robots required for stability and significantly reduce order turnover time, indicating a promising direction for future warehouse automation.


Nonconvex Factorization and Manifold Formulations are Almost Equivalent in Low-rank Matrix Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we consider the geometric landscape connection of the widely studied manifold and factorization formulations in low-rank positive semidefinite (PSD) and general matrix optimization. We establish an equivalence on the set of first-order stationary points (FOSPs) and second-order stationary points (SOSPs) between the manifold and the factorization formulations. We further give a sandwich inequality on the spectrum of Riemannian and Euclidean Hessians at FOSPs, which can be used to transfer more geometric properties from one formulation to another. Similarities and differences on the landscape connection under the PSD case and the general case are discussed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first geometric landscape connection between the manifold and the factorization formulations for handling rank constraints. In the general low-rank matrix optimization, the landscape connection of two factorization formulations (unregularized and regularized ones) is also provided. By applying these geometric landscape connections, we are able to solve unanswered questions in literature and establish stronger results in the applications on geometric analysis of phase retrieval, well-conditioned low-rank matrix optimization, and the role of regularization in factorization arising from machine learning and signal processing.