population trend
AtlasMorph: Learning conditional deformable templates for brain MRI
Rakic, Marianne, Hoopes, Andrew, Abulnaga, S. Mazdak, Sabuncu, Mert R., Guttag, John V., Dalca, Adrian V.
Deformable templates, or atlases, are images that represent a prototypical anatomy for a population, and are often enhanced with probabilistic anatomical label maps. They are commonly used in medical image analysis for population studies and computational anatomy tasks such as registration and segmentation. Because developing a template is a computationally expensive process, relatively few templates are available. As a result, analysis is often conducted with sub-optimal templates that are not truly representative of the study population, especially when there are large variations within this population. W e propose a machine learning framework that uses con-volutional registration neural networks to efficiently learn a function that outputs templates conditioned on subject-specific attributes, such as age and sex. W e also leverage segmentations, when available, to produce anatomical segmentation maps for the resulting templates. The learned network can also be used to register subject images to the templates. W e demonstrate our method on a compilation of 3D brain MRI datasets, and show that it can learn high-quality templates that are representative of populations. W e find that annotated conditional templates enable better registration than their unlabeled unconditional counterparts, and outperform other templates construction methods.
An Empirical Analysis of LLMs for Countering Misinformation
Proma, Adiba Mahbub, Pate, Neeley, Druckman, James, Ghoshal, Gourab, He, Hangfeng, Hoque, Ehsan
While Large Language Models (LLMs) can amplify online misinformation, they also show promise in tackling misinformation. In this paper, we empirically study the capabilities of three LLMs -- ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude -- in countering political misinformation. We implement a two-step, chain-of-thought prompting approach, where models first identify credible sources for a given claim and then generate persuasive responses. Our findings suggest that models struggle to ground their responses in real news sources, and tend to prefer citing left-leaning sources. We also observe varying degrees of response diversity among models. Our findings highlight concerns about using LLMs for fact-checking through only prompt-engineering, emphasizing the need for more robust guardrails. Our results have implications for both researchers and non-technical users.
LucidAtlas$: Learning Uncertainty-Aware, Covariate-Disentangled, Individualized Atlas Representations
Jiao, Yining, Bhamidi, Sreekalyani, Qu, Huaizhi, Zdanski, Carlton, Kimbell, Julia, Prince, Andrew, Worden, Cameron, Kirse, Samuel, Rutter, Christopher, Shields, Benjamin, Dunn, William, Mahmud, Jisan, Chen, Tianlong, Niethammer, Marc
The goal of this work is to develop principled techniques to extract information from high dimensional data sets with complex dependencies in areas such as medicine that can provide insight into individual as well as population level variation. We develop $\texttt{LucidAtlas}$, an approach that can represent spatially varying information, and can capture the influence of covariates as well as population uncertainty. As a versatile atlas representation, $\texttt{LucidAtlas}$ offers robust capabilities for covariate interpretation, individualized prediction, population trend analysis, and uncertainty estimation, with the flexibility to incorporate prior knowledge. Additionally, we discuss the trustworthiness and potential risks of neural additive models for analyzing dependent covariates and then introduce a marginalization approach to explain the dependence of an individual predictor on the models' response (the atlas). To validate our method, we demonstrate its generalizability on two medical datasets. Our findings underscore the critical role of by-construction interpretable models in advancing scientific discovery. Our code will be publicly available upon acceptance.
A Double Machine Learning Trend Model for Citizen Science Data
Fink, Daniel, Johnston, Alison, Strimas-Mackey, Matt, Auer, Tom, Hochachka, Wesley M., Ligocki, Shawn, Jaromczyk, Lauren Oldham, Robinson, Orin, Wood, Chris, Kelling, Steve, Rodewald, Amanda D.
1. Citizen and community-science (CS) datasets have great potential for estimating interannual patterns of population change given the large volumes of data collected globally every year. Yet, the flexible protocols that enable many CS projects to collect large volumes of data typically lack the structure necessary to keep consistent sampling across years. This leads to interannual confounding, as changes to the observation process over time are confounded with changes in species population sizes. 2. Here we describe a novel modeling approach designed to estimate species population trends while controlling for the interannual confounding common in citizen science data. The approach is based on Double Machine Learning, a statistical framework that uses machine learning methods to estimate population change and the propensity scores used to adjust for confounding discovered in the data. Additionally, we develop a simulation method to identify and adjust for residual confounding missed by the propensity scores. Using this new method, we can produce spatially detailed trend estimates from citizen science data. 3. To illustrate the approach, we estimated species trends using data from the CS project eBird. We used a simulation study to assess the ability of the method to estimate spatially varying trends in the face of real-world confounding. Results showed that the trend estimates distinguished between spatially constant and spatially varying trends at a 27km resolution. There were low error rates on the estimated direction of population change (increasing/decreasing) and high correlations on the estimated magnitude. 4. The ability to estimate spatially explicit trends while accounting for confounding in citizen science data has the potential to fill important information gaps, helping to estimate population trends for species, regions, or seasons without rigorous monitoring data.
Artificial Intelligence helps predict bird declines worldwide - The Wildlife Society
For many bird species, scientists don't have much information to figure out whether their populations are rising, falling or staying about the same. To get a better sense, researchers turned to a combination of big data and machine learning. Using over 10,000 species for which information was available, their model looked at correlations to predict population trends for the species they didn't have data for. They found that almost half of the birds with unknown population trends are declining, likely due to having severely fragmented populations. "I see endless possibilities for conservation biology when artificial intelligence is brought into the picture, and we are still not exploring enough," said Xuan Zhang, of Bird Ecology and Conservation Ontario, lead author of the study published in Ibis.