Goto

Collaborating Authors

 pmin


ABayesian Approach to Contextual Dynamic Pricing using the Proportional Hazards Model with Discrete Price Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

Dynamic pricing algorithms typically assume continuous price variables, which may not reflect real-world scenarios where prices are often discrete. This paper demonstrates that leveraging discrete price information within a semi-parametric model can substantially improve performance, depending on the size of the support set of the price variable relative to the time horizon. Specifically, we propose a novel semi-parametric contextual dynamic pricing algorithm, namely BayesCoxCP, based on a Bayesian approach to the Cox proportional hazards model. Our theoretical analysis establishes high-probability regret bounds that adapt to the sparsity level γ, proving that our algorithm achieves a regret upper bound of eO(T(1+γ)/2 + dT) for γ < 1/3 and eO(T2/3 + dT) for γ 1/3, where γ represents the sparsity of the price grid relative to the time horizon T. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms an existing method, particularly in scenarios with sparse discrete price points.


True Self-Avoiding Walk for Accelerating Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Integration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study true self-avoiding walk (TSAW) as a mechanism for improving empirical integral estimation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We consider finite-state adaptive sampling dynamics associated with an irreducible Markov kernel $P$ on a finite set, with stationary distribution $π$, in which the transition probabilities are penalized according to empirical overuse. Our main result is that the empirical occupation counts $L_t(i)$ and transition counts $N_t(i,j)$ of the resulting TSAW-based walk satisfy \[ L_t(i)-tπ_i = O(\sqrt{\log t}) \quad\text{and}\quad N_t(i,j)-tπ_iP_{ij}=O(\sqrt{\log t}) \qquad\text{almost surely} \] for every state $i$ and every edge $(i,j)$ with $P_{ij}>0$. Consequently, for every bounded function $f:V\to\mathbb R$, the error of our integral estimator converges as \[ \left|\frac1t\sum_{s=0}^{t-1} f(X_s)-\sum_{i\in V}π_i f(i)\right| = O\left(\frac{\sqrt{\log t}}{t}\right) \qquad\text{almost surely}. \] These results show that, in contrast with the usual $t^{-1/2}$ error scaling for empirical averages under standard random-walk-based methods, TSAW-based estimator yields empirical integral errors of order $O(\sqrt{\log t}/t)$ almost surely, thereby achieving a substantially sharper dependence on the sample size $t$.


The Behavioral Credibility Trilemma: When Calibrated Autonomy Becomes Impossible

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We prove that no reinforcement learning policy with confidence-gated autonomy can simultaneously achieve maximum helpfulness, optimal calibration, and full autonomy under rational oversight, whenever some tasks exceed the agent's reliable competence: the Behavioral Credibility Trilemma. The impossibility is geometric -- adding any non-affine autonomy incentive to a strictly proper scoring rule destroys strict properness, so an agent rewarded for both calibrated confidence and autonomous action systematically inflates its reported confidence on tasks below the principal's approval threshold. The Behavioral Perturbation Lemma quantifies the inflation (scaling as $w_A/(2 w_C)$ for the Brier score) and shows detection requires $Ω(1/Δ^2)$ observations. We prove the principal's optimal oversight rule is necessarily non-affine, making the impossibility unconditional and optimizer-independent across log-concave-density policy families. We formalize the Confidence-Gated Decision Problem, map existing methods onto the trilemma, and identify two constructive resolution pathways (commitment, domain separation). A 540-configuration Best-of-N experiment tests five pre-registered hypotheses, all strongly confirmed (effect sizes $d = 1.10$ to $5.32$), and adds a descriptive analysis of the achievable-$(H, C, A)$ surface geometry showing a plateau-truncated frontier consistent with the predicted inflation saturation.


Are Stochastic Multi-objective Bandits Harder than Single-objective Bandits?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multi-objective bandits have attracted increasing attention because of their broad applicability and mathematical elegance, where the reward of each arm is a multi-dimensional vector rather than a scalar. This naturally introduces Pareto order relations and Pareto regret. A long-standing question in this area is whether performance is fundamentally harder to optimize because of this added complexity. A recent surprising result shows that, in the adversarial setting, Pareto regret is no larger than classical regret; however, in the stochastic setting, where the regret notion is different, the picture remains unclear. In fact, existing work suggests that Pareto regret in the stochastic case increases with the dimensionality. This controversial yet subtle phenomenon motivates our central question: \emph{are multi-objective bandits actually harder than single-objective ones?} We answer this question in full by showing that, in the stochastic setting, Pareto regret is in fact governed by the maximum sub-optimality gap \(g^\dagger\), and hence by the minimum marginal regret of order \(Ω(\frac{K\log T}{g^\dagger})\). We further develop a new algorithm that achieves Pareto regret of order \(O(\frac{K\log T}{g^\dagger})\), and is therefore optimal. The algorithm leverages a nested two-layer uncertainty quantification over both arms and objectives through upper and lower confidence bound estimators. It combines a top-two racing strategy for arm selection with an uncertainty-greedy rule for dimension selection. Together, these components balance exploration and exploitation across the two layers. We also conduct comprehensive numerical experiments to validate the proposed algorithm, showing the desired regret guarantee and significant gains over benchmark methods.



A New Perspective on Boosting in Linear Regression via Subgradient Optimization and Relatives

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we analyze boosting algorithms in linear regression from a new perspective: that of modern first-order methods in convex optimization. We show that classic boosting algorithms in linear regression, namely the incremental forward stagewise algorithm (FS$_\varepsilon$) and least squares boosting (LS-Boost($\varepsilon$)), can be viewed as subgradient descent to minimize the loss function defined as the maximum absolute correlation between the features and residuals. We also propose a modification of FS$_\varepsilon$ that yields an algorithm for the Lasso, and that may be easily extended to an algorithm that computes the Lasso path for different values of the regularization parameter. Furthermore, we show that these new algorithms for the Lasso may also be interpreted as the same master algorithm (subgradient descent), applied to a regularized version of the maximum absolute correlation loss function. We derive novel, comprehensive computational guarantees for several boosting algorithms in linear regression (including LS-Boost($\varepsilon$) and FS$_\varepsilon$) by using techniques of modern first-order methods in convex optimization. Our computational guarantees inform us about the statistical properties of boosting algorithms. In particular they provide, for the first time, a precise theoretical description of the amount of data-fidelity and regularization imparted by running a boosting algorithm with a prespecified learning rate for a fixed but arbitrary number of iterations, for any dataset.