We address the Statistical Process Control (SPC) of high-dimensional, dynamic industrial processes from two complementary perspectives: manifold fitting and manifold learning, both of which assume data lies on an underlying nonlinear, lower dimensional space. We propose two distinct monitoring frameworks for online or 'phase II' Statistical Process Control (SPC). The first method leverages state-of-the-art techniques in manifold fitting to accurately approximate the manifold where the data resides within the ambient high-dimensional space. It then monitors deviations from this manifold using a novel scalar distribution-free control chart. In contrast, the second method adopts a more traditional approach, akin to those used in linear dimensionality reduction SPC techniques, by first embedding the data into a lower-dimensional space before monitoring the embedded observations. We prove how both methods provide a controllable Type I error probability, after which they are contrasted for their corresponding fault detection ability. Extensive numerical experiments on a synthetic process and on a replicated Tennessee Eastman Process show that the conceptually simpler manifold-fitting approach achieves performance competitive with, and sometimes superior to, the more classical lower-dimensional manifold monitoring methods. In addition, we demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed manifold-fitting approach by successfully detecting surface anomalies in a real image dataset of electrical commutators.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features.

Collusion is a complex phenomenon in which companies secretly collaborate to engage in fraudulent practices. This paper presents an innovative methodology for detecting and predicting collusion patterns in different national markets using neural networks (NNs) and graph neural networks (GNNs). GNNs are particularly well suited to this task because they can exploit the inherent network structures present in collusion and many other economic problems. Our approach consists of two phases: In Phase I, we develop and train models on individual market datasets from Japan, the United States, two regions in Switzerland, Italy, and Brazil, focusing on predicting collusion in single markets. In Phase II, we extend the models' applicability through zero-shot learning, employing a transfer learning approach that can detect collusion in markets in which training data is unavailable. This phase also incorporates out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization to evaluate the models' performance on unseen datasets from other countries and regions. In our empirical study, we show that GNNs outperform NNs in detecting complex collusive patterns. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on preventing collusion and optimizing detection methodologies, providing valuable guidance on the use of NNs and GNNs in economic applications to enhance market fairness and economic welfare.

In the regret-based formulation of multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems, except in rare instances, much of the literature focuses on arms with i.i.d. rewards. In this paper, we consider the problem of obtaining regret guarantees for MAB problems in which the rewards of each arm form a Markov chain which may not belong to a single parameter exponential family. To achieve logarithmic regret in such problems is not difficult: a variation of standard KL-UCB does the job. However, the constants obtained from such an analysis are poor for the following reason: i.i.d. rewards are a special case of Markov rewards and it is difficult to design an algorithm that works well independent of whether the underlying model is truly Markovian or i.i.d. To overcome this issue, we introduce a novel algorithm that identifies whether the rewards from each arm are truly Markovian or i.i.d. using a Hellinger distance-based test. Our algorithm then switches from using a standard KL-UCB to a specialized version of KL-UCB when it determines that the arm reward is Markovian, thus resulting in low regret for both i.i.d. and Markovian settings.

This article presents an extension of Minimalist Categorial Gram- mars (MCG) to encode Chomsky's phases. These grammars are based on Par- tially Commutative Logic (PCL) and encode properties of Minimalist Grammars (MG) of Stabler. The first implementation of MCG were using both non- commutative properties (to respect the linear word order in an utterance) and commutative ones (to model features of different constituents). Here, we pro- pose to adding Chomsky's phases with the non-commutative tensor product of the logic. Then we could give account of the PIC just by using logical prop- erties of the framework.

Under the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency's (DARPA) Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS), Innovative Decisions, Inc. (IDI) constructed a Bayesian network to combine forecasts produced by a set of social science models. We used Bayesian network structure learning with political science variables to produce meaningful priors. We employed a naive Bayes structure to aggregate the forecasts. In both cases, IDI improved classification by intelligently discretizing continuous variables. The resulting network not only met performance criteria set by DARPA, but also out-performed each of the social science models across all types of forecasted events. We describe the construction of the aggregator as well as a set of experiments performed to explore the nature of the Bayesian EOI Aggregator's performance.

We are working on a temporal reasoning web tool for 7-11 olds. The acquisition of temporal relations and reasoning with them depends on age and experience, as well as linguistic factors. We conducted a preliminary evaluation with 6–8 olds in order to assess whether and how they would visually represent “while” temporal relations of a story. In this paper, we present and discuss our experimental evaluation, which paves the way for the visual representation of such relations in our e-tool.

We present a new method for obtaining local error bars for nonlinear regression, i.e., estimates of the confidence in predicted values that depend on the input. We approach this problem by applying a maximumlikelihood framework to an assumed distribution of errors. We demonstrate our method first on computer-generated data with locally varying, normally distributed target noise. We then apply it to laser data from the Santa Fe Time Series Competition where the underlying system noise is known quantization error and the error bars give local estimates of model misspecification. In both cases, the method also provides a weightedregression effect that improves generalization performance.