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Agreement-on-the-line: Predicting the Performance of Neural Networks under Distribution Shift

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recently, Miller et al. showed that a model's in-distribution (ID) accuracy has a strong linear correlation with its out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracy, on several OOD benchmarks, a phenomenon they dubbed ``accuracy-on-the-line''. While a useful tool for model selection (i.e., the model most likely to perform the best OOD is the one with highest ID accuracy), this fact does not help to estimate the actual OOD performance of models without access to a labeled OOD validation set. In this paper, we show a similar surprising phenomena also holds for the agreement between pairs of neural network classifiers: whenever accuracy-on-the-line holds, we observe that the OOD agreement between the predictions of any two pairs of neural networks (with potentially different architectures) also observes a strong linear correlation with their ID agreement. Furthermore, we observe that the slope and bias of OOD vs ID agreement closely matches that of OOD vs ID accuracy. This phenomenon which we call agreement-on-the-line, has important practical applications: without any labeled data, we can predict the OOD accuracy of classifiers, since OOD agreement can be estimated with just unlabeled data. Our prediction algorithm outperforms previous methods both in shifts where agreement-on-the-line holds and, surprisingly, when accuracy is not on the line. This phenomenon also provides new insights into neural networks: unlike accuracy-on-the-line, agreement-on-the-line only appears to hold for neural network classifiers.


Ensemble of Averages: Improving Model Selection and Boosting Performance in Domain Generalization

Neural Information Processing Systems

In Domain Generalization (DG) settings, models trained independently on a given set of training domains have notoriously chaotic performance on distribution shifted test domains, and stochasticity in optimization (e.g.


Unravelling the Performance of Physics-informed Graph Neural Networks for Dynamical Systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recently, graph neural networks have been gaining a lot of attention to simulate dynamical systems due to their inductive nature leading to zero-shot generalizability. Similarly, physics-informed inductive biases in deep-learning frameworks have been shown to give superior performance in learning the dynamics of physical systems. There is a growing volume of literature that attempts to combine these two approaches. Here, we evaluate the performance of thirteen different graph neural networks, namely, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian graph neural networks, graph neural ODE, and their variants with explicit constraints and different architectures. We briefly explain the theoretical formulation highlighting the similarities and differences in the inductive biases and graph architecture of these systems. Then, we evaluate them on spring, pendulum, and gravitational and 3D deformable solid systems to compare the performance in terms of rollout error, conserved quantities such as energy and momentum, and generalizability to unseen system sizes. Our study demonstrates that GNNs with additional inductive biases, such as explicit constraints and decoupling of kinetic and potential energies, exhibit significantly enhanced performance. Further, all the physics-informed GNNs exhibit zero-shot generalizability to system sizes an order of magnitude larger than the training system, thus providing a promising route to simulate large-scale realistic systems.


WenMind: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models in Chinese Classical Literature and Language Arts

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant advancements across numerous domains, but their capabilities in Chinese Classical Literature and Language Arts (CCLLA) remain largely unexplored due to the limited scope and tasks of existing benchmarks. To fill this gap, we propose WenMind, a comprehensive benchmark dedicated for evaluating LLMs in CCLLA.



Singleton-Optimized Conformal Prediction

Wang, Tao, Sun, Yan, Dobriban, Edgar

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal prediction can be used to construct prediction sets that cover the true outcome with a desired probability, but can sometimes lead to large prediction sets that are costly in practice. The most useful outcome is a singleton prediction-an unambiguous decision-yet existing efficiency-oriented methods primarily optimize average set size. Motivated by this, we propose a new nonconformity score that aims to minimize the probability of producing non-singleton sets. Starting from a non-convex constrained optimization problem as a motivation, we provide a geometric reformulation and associated algorithm for computing the nonconformity score and associated split conformal prediction sets in O(K) time for K-class problems. Using this score in split conformal prediction leads to our proposed Singleton-Optimized Conformal Prediction (SOCOP) method. We evaluate our method in experiments on image classification and LLM multiple-choice question-answering, comparing with standard nonconformity scores such as the (negative) label probability estimates and their cumulative distribution function; both of which are motivated by optimizing length. The results show that SOCOP increases singleton frequency (sometimes by over 20%) compared to the above scores, with minimal impact on average set size.


LM-HT SNN: Enhancing the Performance of SNN to ANN Counterpart through Learnable Multi-hierarchical Threshold Model

Neural Information Processing Systems

Compared to traditional Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Spiking Neural Network (SNN) has garnered widespread academic interest for its intrinsic ability to transmit information in a more energy-efficient manner. The recently proposed multi-threshold model provides more possibilities for further enhancing the learning capability of SNNs. In this paper, we rigorously analyze the relationship among the multi-threshold model, vanilla spiking model and quantized ANNs from a mathematical perspective, then propose a novel LM-HT model, which is an equidistant multi-threshold model that can dynamically regulate the global input current and membrane potential leakage on the time dimension. The LM-HT model can also be transformed into a vanilla single threshold model through reparameterization, thereby achieving more flexible hardware deployment. In addition, we note that the LM-HT model can seamlessly integrate with ANN-SNN Conversion framework under special initialization.


Adaptive Anomaly Recovery for Telemanipulation: A Diffusion Model Approach to Vision-Based Tracking

Wang, Haoyang, Guo, Haoran, Tao, Lingfeng, Li, Zhengxiong

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dexterous telemanipulation critically relies on the continuous and stable tracking of the human operator's commands to ensure robust operation. Vison-based tracking methods are widely used but have low stability due to anomalies such as occlusions, inadequate lighting, and loss of sight. Traditional filtering, regression, and interpolation methods are commonly used to compensate for explicit information such as angles and positions. These approaches are restricted to low-dimensional data and often result in information loss compared to the original high-dimensional image and video data. Recent advances in diffusion-based approaches, which can operate on high-dimensional data, have achieved remarkable success in video reconstruction and generation. However, these methods have not been fully explored in continuous control tasks in robotics. This work introduces the Diffusion-Enhanced Telemanipulation (DET) framework, which incorporates the Frame-Difference Detection (FDD) technique to identify and segment anomalies in video streams. These anomalous clips are replaced after reconstruction using diffusion models, ensuring robust telemanipulation performance under challenging visual conditions. We validated this approach in various anomaly scenarios and compared it with the baseline methods. Experiments show that DET achieves an average RMSE reduction of 17.2% compared to the cubic spline and 51.1% compared to FFT-based interpolation for different occlusion durations.


ReLATE: Resilient Learner Selection for Multivariate Time-Series Classification Against Adversarial Attacks

Kocal, Cagla Ipek, Gungor, Onat, Tartz, Aaron, Rosing, Tajana, Aksanli, Baris

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Minimizing computational overhead in time-series classification, particularly in deep learning models, presents a significant challenge. This challenge is further compounded by adversarial attacks, emphasizing the need for resilient methods that ensure robust performance and efficient model selection. We introduce ReLATE, a framework that identifies robust learners based on dataset similarity, reduces computational overhead, and enhances resilience. ReLATE maintains multiple deep learning models in well-known adversarial attack scenarios, capturing model performance. ReLATE identifies the most analogous dataset to a given target using a similarity metric, then applies the optimal model from the most similar dataset. ReLATE reduces computational overhead by an average of 81.2%, enhancing adversarial resilience and streamlining robust model selection, all without sacrificing performance, within 4.2% of Oracle.