Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for safety-critical domains like healthcare, yet it is rarely evaluated under realistic out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions. Here, we assessed predictive performance and uncertainty reliability for deep learning-based blood pressure (BP) estimation from photoplethysmography (PPG) signals under both in-distribution (ID) and OOD settings. Using an XResNet1D-50 trained on PulseDB and tested on four external datasets, we compared deep ensembles (DE) and Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) with Gaussian negative log-likelihood (GNLL) and mean squared error (MSE) losses, optionally followed by post-hoc recalibration via conformal prediction (CP), temperature scaling (TS), and isotonic regression (IR). The key findings of our study are as follows: (1) DE provides stronger predictive robustness under domain shift than MCD, an advantage that becomes clear primarily under external shift. (2) Recalibrated GNLL-based methods yield the best uncertainty calibration (e.g., GNLL+DE+CP for systolic blood pressure (SBP), GNLL+DE+TS for diastolic blood pressure (DBP)), while MSE-based uncertainty requires recalibration to become practically useful. (3) Across settings, CP and TS offer the most consistent gains, with IR remaining competitive in several cases. Overall, our results identify DE-based methods as most robust for predictive performance under domain shift, GNLL as strongest for native UQ, and recalibration as essential for making MSE-based uncertainty practical. These findings highlight the need to jointly assess predictive accuracy and calibration on external data for trustworthy cuffless BP estimation

Most existing out-of-distribution (OOD) detection benchmarks classify samples with novel labels as the OOD data. However, some marginal OOD samples actually have close semantic contents to the in-distribution (ID) sample, which makes determining the OOD sample a Sorites Paradox. In this paper, we construct a benchmark named Incremental Shift OOD (IS-OOD) to address the issue, in which we divide the test samples into subsets with different semantic and covariate shift degrees relative to the ID dataset. The data division is achieved through a shift measuring method based on our proposed Language Aligned Image feature Decomposition (LAID). Moreover, we construct a Synthetic Incremental Shift (Syn-IS) dataset that contains high-quality generated images with more diverse covariate contents to complement the IS-OOD benchmark. We evaluate current OOD detection methods on our benchmark and find several important insights: (1) The performance of most OOD detection methods significantly improves as the semantic shift increases; (2) Some methods like GradNorm may have different OOD detection mechanisms as they rely less on semantic shifts to make decisions; (3) Excessive covariate shifts in the image are also likely to be considered as OOD for some methods. Our code and data are released in https://github.com/qqwsad5/IS-OOD.

The significant heterogeneity poses higher requirements foralgorithm robustness.

Alldatausedispublic.] (b) Did you specify all the training details (e.g., data splits, hyperparameters, how they werechosen)? A.1 TrainingDetails In our experiments, the classifierfθ is a 8-layer MLP with 128 hidden dimensions per layer.

Although deep learning programs havedemonstrated strong performance on novel applications, they sacrifice many of the functionalities of traditional software programs.

Figure 11: RecBeerenvironments: Each year serves as a different environment, whose affect is expressed through differing correlations between beer types and user choices.

To address these issues, we introduce a novel Bayesian meta-learning approach called meta-variational dropout (MetaVD).