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Reinforcement Learning for Micro-Level Claims Reserving

Avanzi, Benjamin, Richman, Ronald, Wong, Bernard, Wüthrich, Mario, Xie, Yagebu

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Outstanding claim liabilities are revised repeatedly as claims develop, yet most modern reserving models are trained as one-shot predictors and typically learn only from settled claims. We formulate individual claims reserving as a claim-level Markov decision process in which an agent sequentially updates outstanding claim liability (OCL) estimates over development, using continuous actions and a reward design that balances accuracy with stable reserve revisions. A key advantage of this reinforcement learning (RL) approach is that it can learn from all observed claim trajectories, including claims that remain open at valuation, thereby avoiding the reduced sample size and selection effects inherent in supervised methods trained on ultimate outcomes only. We also introduce practical components needed for actuarial use -- initialisation of new claims, temporally consistent tuning via a rolling-settlement scheme, and an importance-weighting mechanism to mitigate portfolio-level underestimation driven by the rarity of large claims. On CAS and SPLICE synthetic general insurance datasets, the proposed Soft Actor-Critic implementation delivers competitive claim-level accuracy and strong aggregate OCL performance, particularly for the immature claim segments that drive most of the liability.


Forgetting, Ignorance or Myopia: Revisiting Key Challenges in Online Continual Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Online continual learning (OCL) requires the models to learn from constant, endless streams of data. While significant efforts have been made in this field, most were focused on mitigating the \textit{catastrophic forgetting} issue to achieve better classification ability, at the cost of a much heavier training workload. They overlooked that in real-world scenarios, e.g., in high-speed data stream environments, data do not pause to accommodate slow models. In this paper, we emphasize that \textit{model throughput}-- defined as the maximum number of training samples that a model can process within a unit of time -- is equally important. It directly limits how much data a model can utilize and presents a challenging dilemma for current methods. With this understanding, we revisit key challenges in OCL from both empirical and theoretical perspectives, highlighting two critical issues beyond the well-documented catastrophic forgetting: (\romannumeral1) Model's ignorance: the single-pass nature of OCL challenges models to learn effective features within constrained training time and storage capacity, leading to a trade-off between effective learning and model throughput; (\romannumeral2) Model's myopia: the local learning nature of OCL on the current task leads the model to adopt overly simplified, task-specific features and \textit{excessively sparse classifier}, resulting in the gap between the optimal solution for the current task and the global objective. To tackle these issues, we propose the Non-sparse Classifier Evolution framework (NsCE) to facilitate effective global discriminative feature learning with minimal time cost. NsCE integrates non-sparse maximum separation regularization and targeted experience replay techniques with the help of pre-trained models, enabling rapid acquisition of new globally discriminative features. Extensive experiments demonstrate the substantial improvements of our framework in performance, throughput and real-world practicality.


Forgetting, Ignorance or Myopia: Revisiting Key Challenges in Online Continual Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Online continual learning (OCL) requires the models to learn from constant, endless streams of data. While significant efforts have been made in this field, most were focused on mitigating the \textit{catastrophic forgetting} issue to achieve better classification ability, at the cost of a much heavier training workload. They overlooked that in real-world scenarios, e.g., in high-speed data stream environments, data do not pause to accommodate slow models. In this paper, we emphasize that \textit{model throughput}-- defined as the maximum number of training samples that a model can process within a unit of time -- is equally important. It directly limits how much data a model can utilize and presents a challenging dilemma for current methods. With this understanding, we revisit key challenges in OCL from both empirical and theoretical perspectives, highlighting two critical issues beyond the well-documented catastrophic forgetting: (\romannumeral1) Model's ignorance: the single-pass nature of OCL challenges models to learn effective features within constrained training time and storage capacity, leading to a trade-off between effective learning and model throughput; (\romannumeral2) Model's myopia: the local learning nature of OCL on the current task leads the model to adopt overly simplified, task-specific features and \textit{excessively sparse classifier}, resulting in the gap between the optimal solution for the current task and the global objective.


OCL: Ordinal Contrastive Learning for Imputating Features with Progressive Labels

Baek, Seunghun, Sim, Jaeyoon, Wu, Guorong, Kim, Won Hwa

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately discriminating progressive stages of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is crucial for early diagnosis and prevention. It often involves multiple imaging modalities to understand the complex pathology of AD, however, acquiring a complete set of images is challenging due to high cost and burden for subjects. In the end, missing data become inevitable which lead to limited sample-size and decrease in precision in downstream analyses. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a holistic imaging feature imputation method that enables to leverage diverse imaging features while retaining all subjects. The proposed method comprises two networks: 1) An encoder to extract modality-independent embeddings and 2) A decoder to reconstruct the original measures conditioned on their imaging modalities. The encoder includes a novel {\em ordinal contrastive loss}, which aligns samples in the embedding space according to the progression of AD. We also maximize modality-wise coherence of embeddings within each subject, in conjunction with domain adversarial training algorithms, to further enhance alignment between different imaging modalities. The proposed method promotes our holistic imaging feature imputation across various modalities in the shared embedding space. In the experiments, we show that our networks deliver favorable results for statistical analysis and classification against imputation baselines with Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study.


Online Continual Learning: A Systematic Literature Review of Approaches, Challenges, and Benchmarks

Bidaki, Seyed Amir, Mohammadkhah, Amir, Rezaee, Kiyan, Hassani, Faeze, Eskandari, Sadegh, Salahi, Maziar, Ghassemi, Mohammad M.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online Continual Learning (OCL) is a critical area in machine learning, focusing on enabling models to adapt to evolving data streams in real-time while addressing challenges such as catastrophic forgetting and the stability-plasticity trade-off. This study conducts the first comprehensive Systematic Literature Review (SLR) on OCL, analyzing 81 approaches, extracting over 1,000 features (specific tasks addressed by these approaches), and identifying more than 500 components (sub-models within approaches, including algorithms and tools). We also review 83 datasets spanning applications like image classification, object detection, and multimodal vision-language tasks. Our findings highlight key challenges, including reducing computational overhead, developing domain-agnostic solutions, and improving scalability in resource-constrained environments. Furthermore, we identify promising directions for future research, such as leveraging self-supervised learning for multimodal and sequential data, designing adaptive memory mechanisms that integrate sparse retrieval and generative replay, and creating efficient frameworks for real-world applications with noisy or evolving task boundaries. By providing a rigorous and structured synthesis of the current state of OCL, this review offers a valuable resource for advancing this field and addressing its critical challenges and opportunities. The complete SLR methodology steps and extracted data are publicly available through the provided link: https://github.com/kiyan-rezaee/ Systematic-Literature-Review-on-Online-Continual-Learning


Order Is All You Need for Categorical Data Clustering

Zhang, Yiqun, Zhao, Mingjie, Jia, Hong, Cheung, Yiu-ming

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Categorical data composed of nominal valued attributes are ubiquitous in knowledge discovery and data mining tasks. Due to the lack of well-defined metric space, categorical data distributions are difficult to intuitively understand. Clustering is a popular technique suitable for data analysis. However, the success of clustering often relies on reasonable distance metrics, which happens to be what categorical data naturally lack. Therefore, the cluster analysis of categorical data is considered a critical but challenging problem. This paper introduces the new finding that the order relation among attribute values is the decisive factor in clustering accuracy, and is also the key to understanding the categorical data clusters. To automatically obtain the orders, we propose a new learning paradigm that allows joint learning of clusters and the orders. It turns out that clustering with order learning achieves superior clustering accuracy, and the learned orders provide intuition for understanding the cluster distribution of categorical data. Extensive experiments with statistical evidence and case studies have verified the effectiveness of the new ``order is all you need'' insight and the proposed method.


Grouped Discrete Representation for Object-Centric Learning

Zhao, Rongzhen, Wang, Vivienne, Kannala, Juho, Pajarinen, Joni

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Object-Centric Learning (OCL) can discover objects in images or videos by simply reconstructing the input. For better object discovery, representative OCL methods reconstruct the input as its Variational Autoencoder (VAE) intermediate representation, which suppresses pixel noises and promotes object separability by discretizing continuous super-pixels with template features. However, treating features as units overlooks their composing attributes, thus impeding model generalization; indexing features with scalar numbers loses attribute-level similarities and differences, thus hindering model convergence. We propose \textit{Grouped Discrete Representation} (GDR) for OCL. We decompose features into combinatorial attributes via organized channel grouping, and compose these attributes into discrete representation via tuple indexes. Experiments show that our GDR improves both Transformer- and Diffusion-based OCL methods consistently on various datasets. Visualizations show that our GDR captures better object separability.


Adaptive Shortcut Debiasing for Online Continual Learning

Kim, Doyoung, Park, Dongmin, Shin, Yooju, Bang, Jihwan, Song, Hwanjun, Lee, Jae-Gil

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel framework DropTop that suppresses the shortcut bias in online continual learning (OCL) while being adaptive to the varying degree of the shortcut bias incurred by continuously changing environment. By the observed high-attention property of the shortcut bias, highly-activated features are considered candidates for debiasing. More importantly, resolving the limitation of the online environment where prior knowledge and auxiliary data are not ready, two novel techniques -- feature map fusion and adaptive intensity shifting -- enable us to automatically determine the appropriate level and proportion of the candidate shortcut features to be dropped. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets demonstrate that, when combined with various OCL algorithms, DropTop increases the average accuracy by up to 10.4% and decreases the forgetting by up to 63.2%.


The ACL OCL Corpus: Advancing Open Science in Computational Linguistics

Rohatgi, Shaurya, Qin, Yanxia, Aw, Benjamin, Unnithan, Niranjana, Kan, Min-Yen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present ACL OCL, a scholarly corpus derived from the ACL Anthology to assist Open scientific research in the Computational Linguistics domain. Integrating and enhancing the previous versions of the ACL Anthology, the ACL OCL contributes metadata, PDF files, citation graphs and additional structured full texts with sections, figures, and links to a large knowledge resource (Semantic Scholar). The ACL OCL spans seven decades, containing 73K papers, alongside 210K figures. We spotlight how ACL OCL applies to observe trends in computational linguistics. By detecting paper topics with a supervised neural model, we note that interest in "Syntax: Tagging, Chunking and Parsing" is waning and "Natural Language Generation" is resurging. Our dataset is available from HuggingFace (https://huggingface.co/datasets/WINGNUS/ACL-OCL).


Coding by Design: GPT-4 empowers Agile Model Driven Development

Sadik, Ahmed R., Brulin, Sebastian, Olhofer, Markus

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generating code from a natural language using Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, seems groundbreaking. Yet, with more extensive use, it's evident that this approach has its own limitations. The inherent ambiguity of natural language presents challenges for complex software designs. Accordingly, our research offers an Agile Model-Driven Development (MDD) approach that enhances code auto-generation using OpenAI's GPT-4. Our work emphasizes "Agility" as a significant contribution to the current MDD method, particularly when the model undergoes changes or needs deployment in a different programming language. Thus, we present a case-study showcasing a multi-agent simulation system of an Unmanned Vehicle Fleet. In the first and second layer of our approach, we constructed a textual representation of the case-study using Unified Model Language (UML) diagrams. In the next layer, we introduced two sets of constraints that minimize model ambiguity. Object Constraints Language (OCL) is applied to fine-tune the code constructions details, while FIPA ontology is used to shape communication semantics and protocols. Ultimately, leveraging GPT-4, our last layer auto-generates code in both Java and Python. The Java code is deployed within the JADE framework, while the Python code is deployed in PADE framework. Concluding our research, we engaged in a comprehensive evaluation of the generated code. From a behavioural standpoint, the auto-generated code aligned perfectly with the expected UML sequence diagram. Structurally, we compared the complexity of code derived from UML diagrams constrained solely by OCL to that influenced by both OCL and FIPA-ontology. Results indicate that ontology-constrained model produce inherently more intricate code, but it remains manageable and low-risk for further testing and maintenance.