In federated language modeling, $K$ nodes each hold $n$ samples but cannot pool data or exchange full-precision gradients or weights. We study the minimax rate at which a conditional distribution over $V$ tokens can be estimated when each node may upload at most $B$ bits per query in a public probe set. In federated probe-logit distillation (FPLD), each node transmits a scalar-quantized logit vector on the probe set, and an aggregator distills a global parametric student. Prior work (Dubey and Huo, 2026) establishes a high-probability KL rate $O(d/(Kn) + ρ\sqrt{V \log V / m} + K^{-1} \cdot 2^{-2B/V})$ plus optimization slack, with the bandwidth term in its trace-sharpened form. Whether this bandwidth-term rate is tight, and how the upper bound generalizes to heterogeneous per-node bandwidths, are left open. We close both gaps. First, the dithered FPLD construction has a matching single-round lower bound $Ω(K^{-1} \cdot 2^{-2B/V})$ under non-degeneracy, pinning the bandwidth-axis rate at $Θ(K^{-1} \cdot 2^{-2B/V})$. $T$-round sequential refinement with nested/scaled residual quantizers achieves $O(K^{-1} \cdot 2^{-2TB/V})$; vanilla FPLD's $T$-independent bandwidth term is suboptimal for every $T > 1$. Second, we establish a heterogeneous-bandwidth upper bound for per-node budgets $B_i$, paired with a closed-form optimal allocation $B_i^* = B_{\mathrm{tot}}/K + (V/2) \log_2(w_i / \bar{w}_g)$, a log-tilted water-filling rule that is the per-node analogue of reverse water-filling for distortion-rate optimization. A plug-in adaptive variant estimates the weights from a short warm-up phase and attains $1 + O(\sqrt{\log(K/δ)/(m T_0)})$ relative suboptimality. Synthetic n-gram simulations confirm that empirical KL is bracketed by the upper and lower bounds and that the optimal allocation strictly dominates uniform and inverse-weighted baselines under heterogeneous clipping.

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) are currently the most popular approach for learning and prediction on graph-structured data and are deployed in various fields, from social network analysis to drug discovery. However, there is limited mathematical understanding of the performance of GNNs. We discuss the various perspectives used to study statistical generalisation in GNNs. We identify three broad frameworks. The first approach, rooted in learning theory, relies on uniform convergence bounds and the complexity of the hypothesis class of specific GNN architectures. This approach also builds on the expressivity of GNNs, typically studied through the lens of graph isomorphism tests. The second principle is to simplify the neural architecture by analysing GNNs under the asymptotics of infinitely many parameters or infinite graph size. This approach approximates GNNs using Gaussian processes, neural tangent kernels or graphon neural network operators, which allow studying the generalisation or stability of trained GNNs. The third framework studies GNNs under random graph models, often the contextual stochastic block model, and derives non-asymptotic error rates using tools from high-dimensional statistics. We highlight some key theoretical results and discuss a few limitations and open research questions for each perspective.

Agentic text-simulation systems write in sequence, with each item becoming possible context for later steps. That makes uncertainty path-dependent: an early ambiguity can affect later outputs. This paper studies this problem with HawkesLLM, a framework that separates temporal influence modeling from text generation. We represent the cascade as a network whose nodes are text-generating agents. A multivariate Hawkes process models how these nodes activate over time and which earlier node outputs should influence later prompts. A language model then writes each new event from the compact memory selected by this temporal model. We evaluate the framework on a held-out Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) news-cascade case study. The diagnostics track semantic alignment with local held-out references and separate local drift from global drift. In this setting, HawkesLLM improves late-stage semantic alignment under a compact prompt-memory budget.

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency - where observed variables share no latent confounders - or the pretreatment assumption, which limits covariates to those unaffected by the treatment or outcome. These requirements are often unrealistic in practice, and global learning becomes computationally prohibitive in high-dimensional settings.To address these challenges, we propose a novel local learning method for covariate selection in nonparametric causal effect estimation that avoids both the pretreatment and causal sufficiency assumptions. We first characterize a local boundary that contains at least one valid adjustment set whenever one exists for identifying the causal effect, and then develop local identification procedures to efficiently search within this boundary.We prove that the proposed method is sound and complete. Experiments on multiple synthetic datasets and two real-world datasets show that our approach achieves accurate causal effect estimation while substantially improving computational efficiency.

GPUs have significantly accelerated first-order methods for large-scale optimization, especially in continuous optimization. However, this success has not transferred cleanly to problems with discrete variables, combinatorial structure, and nonlinear objectives, such as certifying optimal solutions for cardinality-constrained generalized linear models. Major challenges include the sequential processing of heterogeneous nodes in branch and bound (BnB) and frequent data movement between the CPU and GPU. We propose a simple, generic, and modular CPU--GPU framework that processes multiple BnB nodes in batches on GPUs. The framework is built around a small set of GPU-efficient routines and uses padding together with lightweight custom kernels to handle irregular node data structures. Experiments show one to two orders of magnitude speedups and zero optimality gap on challenging instances. The framework can also be extended to collect the entire Rashomon set, enabling downstream statistical analysis such as variable-importance analysis and model selection under secondary user-specific measures (e.g., AUC in classification).

Smooth functions on graphs have wide applications in manifold and semi-supervised learning. In this paper, we study a bandit problem where the payoffs of arms are smooth on a graph. This framework is suitable for solving online learning problems that involve graphs, such as content-based recommendation. In this problem, each recommended item is a node and its expected rating is similar to its neighbors. The goal is to recommend items that have high expected ratings. We aim for the algorithms where the cumulative regret would not scale poorly with the number of nodes. In particular, we introduce the notion of an effective dimension, which is small in real-world graphs, and propose two algorithms for solving our problem that scale linearly in this dimension. Our experiments on real-world content recommendation problem show that a good estimator of user preferences for thousands of items can be learned from just tens nodes evaluations.

Multi-agent language systems are often built as hand-designed workflows, where agents are assigned semantic roles and communication protocols are specified in advance. We propose NeuroMAS, a method that first treats a multi-agent language system as a trainable and scalable neural-network-like architecture with LLM agents as nodes and intermediate textual signals as edges. In NeuroMAS, agent nodes are role-free but structure-aware: the topology only determines how information can flow in general, while reinforcement learning training determines how nodes communicate, specialize, and coordinate. This formulation shifts multi-agent design from workflow engineering toward architecture design, where depth, width, connectivity, and growth protocol become scalable sources of capability. Further, we provide a theoretical perspective showing why such modular textual computation is more parameter-efficient when tasks admit hierarchical decompositions. Experiments show that NeuroMAS improves significantly over both inference-time and trained multi-agent baselines. We further find that organizational scaling is path-dependent: larger systems can be challenging to train from scratch, but become feasible when grown progressively from smaller trained systems. These results suggest that learned neural multi-agent systems are a promising scaling axis for LLMs.

We study the classical problem of community recovery in stochastic block models with a fixed number of communities, with a twist: We seek algorithms that are stable with respect to node-wise changes in the graph structure, formally defined as a differential privacy constraint. The algorithms we develop are based on spectral clustering, where we introduce privacy to the community recovery pipeline in the form of directly privatizing the adjacency matrix; private PCA; private convex optimization; private low-rank matrix estimation; and private approximate subspace estimation. Straightforward applications of existing private algorithms lead to a rapid increase in the privacy parameter $ε$ in order to ensure consistent estimation under node differential privacy, in contrast with the simpler setting of edge privacy. To alleviate these issues, we develop novel algorithms based on (1) sampling from an exponential mechanism with a Lipschitz extension and (2) a general framework for constructing smooth projections from the space of undirected graphs to the space of bounded-degree graphs, which can then be combined with various edge-private algorithms. Importantly, the methods we develop are all computable in polynomial-time as a function of the number of nodes in the graph. We also develop novel lower bounds on the growth rate of $ε$ required in order to achieve consistent community estimation under node privacy. On a technical note, our paper highlights the complications that arise when analyzing private algorithms under the non-standard scaling $ε\rightarrow \infty$ and proposes some solutions. We also provide a novel application of the HGR maximal correlation from information theory in the context of accuracy amplification in PAC learning, which may be of independent interest.

Quantum machine learning (QML) aims to accelerate machine learning tasks by exploiting quantum computation. Previous work studied a QML algorithm for selecting sparse subnetworks from large shallow neural networks. Instead of directly solving an optimization problem over a large-scale network, this algorithm constructs a sparse subnetwork by sampling hidden nodes from an optimized probability distribution defined using the ridgelet transform. The quantum algorithm performs this sampling in time $O(D)$ in the data dimension $D$, whereas a naive classical implementation relies on handling exponentially many candidate nodes and hence takes $\exp[O(D)]$ time. In this work, we construct and analyze a quantum-inspired fully classical algorithm for the same sampling task. We show that our algorithm runs in time $O(\operatorname{poly}(D))$, thereby removing the exponential dependence on $D$ from the previous classical approach. Numerical simulations show that the proposed sampler achieves empirical risk comparable to exact sampling from the optimized distribution and substantially lower than sampling from the non-optimized uniform distribution, while also exhibiting exponentially improved runtime scaling compared with the conventional classical implementation. These successful dequantization results show that sparse subnetwork selection via optimized sampling can be achieved classically with polynomial data-dimension scaling on conventional computers without quantum hardware, providing an alternative to the existing quantum algorithm.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.