Fire is characterized by its sudden onset and destructive power, making early fire detection crucial for ensuring human safety and protecting property. With the advancement of deep learning, the application of computer vision in fire detection has significantly improved. However, deep learning models often exhibit a tendency toward overconfidence, and most existing works focus primarily on enhancing classification performance, with limited attention given to uncertainty modeling. To address this issue, we propose transforming the Expected Calibration Error (ECE), a metric for measuring uncertainty, into a differentiable ECE loss function. This loss is then combined with the cross-entropy loss to guide the training process of multi-class fire detection models. Additionally, to achieve a good balance between classification accuracy and reliable decision, we introduce a curriculum learning-based approach that dynamically adjusts the weight of the ECE loss during training. Extensive experiments are conducted on two widely used multi-class fire detection datasets, DFAN and EdgeFireSmoke, validating the effectiveness of our uncertainty modeling method.

Generalization abilities of well-trained large language models (LLMs) are known to scale predictably as a function of model size. In contrast to the existence of practical scaling laws governing pre-training, the quality of LLMs after post-training compression remains highly unpredictable, often requiring case-by-case validation in practice. In this work, we attempted to close this gap for post-training weight quantization of LLMs by conducting a systematic empirical study on multiple LLM families quantized to numerous low-precision tensor data types using popular weight quantization techniques. We identified key scaling factors pertaining to characteristics of the local loss landscape, based on which the performance of quantized LLMs can be reasonably well predicted by a statistical model.

Utilizing deep learning (DL) techniques for radio-based positioning of user equipment (UE) through channel state information (CSI) fingerprints has demonstrated significant potential. DL models can extract complex characteristics from the CSI fingerprints of a particular environment and accurately predict the position of a UE. Nonetheless, the effectiveness of the DL model trained on CSI fingerprints is highly dependent on the particular training environment, limiting the trained model's applicability across different environments. This paper proposes a novel DL model structure consisting of two parts, where the first part aims at identifying features that are independent from any specific environment, while the second part combines those features in an environment specific way with the goal of positioning. To train such a two-part model, we propose the multi-environment meta-learning (MEML) approach for the first part to facilitate training across various environments, while the second part of the model is trained solely on data from a specific environment. Our findings indicate that employing the MEML approach for initializing the weights of the DL model for a new unseen environment significantly boosts the accuracy of UE positioning in the new target environment as well the reliability of its uncertainty estimation. This method outperforms traditional transfer learning methods, whether direct transfer learning (DTL) between environments or completely training from scratch with data from a new environment. The proposed approach is verified with real measurements for both line-of-sight (LOS) and non-LOS (NLOS) environments.

Text summarization and simplification are among the most widely used applications of AI. However, models developed for such tasks are often prone to hallucination, which can result from training on unaligned data. One efficient approach to address this issue is Loss Truncation (LT) (Kang and Hashimoto, 2020), an approach to modify the standard log loss to adaptively remove noisy examples during training. However, we find that LT alone yields a considerable number of hallucinated entities on various datasets. We study the behavior of the underlying losses between factual and non-factual examples, to understand and refine the performance of LT. We demonstrate that LT's performance is limited when the underlying assumption that noisy targets have higher NLL loss is not satisfied, and find that word-level NLL among entities provides better signal for distinguishing factuality. We then leverage this to propose a fine-grained NLL loss and fine-grained data cleaning strategies, and observe improvements in hallucination reduction across some datasets. Our work is available at https://https://github.com/yale-nlp/fine-grained-lt.

Despite the promise of Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) methods in astronomy, the adaptation of NPE into the routine inference workflow has been slow. We identify three critical issues: the need for custom featurizer networks tailored to the observed data, the inference inexactness, and the under-specification of physical forward models. To address the first two issues, we introduce a new framework and open-source software nbi (Neural Bayesian Inference), which supports both amortized and sequential NPE. First, nbi provides built-in "featurizer" networks with demonstrated efficacy on sequential data, such as light curve and spectra, thus obviating the need for this customization on the user end. Second, we introduce a modified algorithm SNPE-IS, which facilities asymptotically exact inference by using the surrogate posterior under NPE only as a proposal distribution for importance sampling. These features allow nbi to be applied off-the-shelf to astronomical inference problems involving light curves and spectra. We discuss how nbi may serve as an effective alternative to existing methods such as Nested Sampling. Our package is at https://github.com/kmzzhang/nbi.

Inexpensive machine learning potentials are increasingly being used to speed up structural optimization and molecular dynamics simulations of materials by iteratively predicting and applying interatomic forces. In these settings, it is crucial to detect when predictions are unreliable to avoid wrong or misleading results. Here, we present a complete framework for training and recalibrating graph neural network ensemble models to produce accurate predictions of energy and forces with calibrated uncertainty estimates. The proposed method considers both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty and the total uncertainties are recalibrated post hoc using a nonlinear scaling function to achieve good calibration on previously unseen data, without loss of predictive accuracy. The method is demonstrated and evaluated on two challenging, publicly available datasets, ANI-1x (Smith et al.) and Transition1x (Schreiner et al.), both containing diverse conformations far from equilibrium. A detailed analysis of the predictive performance and uncertainty calibration is provided. In all experiments, the proposed method achieved low prediction error and good uncertainty calibration, with predicted uncertainty correlating with expected error, on energy and forces. To the best of our knowledge, the method presented in this paper is the first to consider a complete framework for obtaining calibrated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty predictions on both energy and forces in ML potentials.

A large class of inverse problems in imaging aims at recovering locations of sources of waves from sensor measurements of the wavefield radiated by these sources. Many applications for locating sources exist in the literature, in various fields such as acoustics, geophysics, non-destructive evaluation and more [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]. These "inverse source" problems are usually ill-posed. The incomplete data provided only by a few sensors makes the solution very sensitive to that data. In addition, traditional imaging methods such as Kirchhoff migration suffer from the so-called resolution limit, when close-by sources cannot be distinguished from each other in the image due to the nonzero width of the Green's function. Various super-resolution techniques can in principle overcome these limitations, however at the expense of extreme sensitivity to noise in the data and highly nontrivial mathematical theory, which is currently applicable only in a limited number of cases (see Section 2). The use of machine-learning (ML) for solving inverse problems is spreading fast within the scientific community [11, 12, 13, 14]. According to this paradigm, many PDE-based inverse problems of the form A(x) y, including the one in this paper, can be formulated as data-driven problems, i.e. searching for a general neural network model NN

Our results on the Bayesmark benchmark indicate that heteroscedasticity and non-stationarity pose significant challenges for black-box optimisers. Based on these findings, we propose a Heteroscedastic and Evolutionary Bayesian Optimisation solver (HEBO). HEBO performs non-linear input and output warping, admits exact marginal log-likelihood optimisation and is robust to the values of learned parameters. We demonstrate HEBO's empirical efficacy on the NeurIPS 2020 Black-Box Optimisation challenge, where HEBO placed first. Upon further analysis, we observe that HEBO significantly outperforms existing black-box optimisers on 108 machine learning hyperparameter tuning tasks comprising the Bayesmark benchmark. Our findings indicate that the majority of hyper-parameter tuning tasks exhibit heteroscedasticity and non-stationarity, multiobjective acquisition ensembles with Pareto front solutions improve queried configurations, and robust acquisition maximisers afford empirical advantages relative to their non-robust counterparts. We hope these findings may serve as guiding principles for practitioners of Bayesian optimisation.

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria. Endowing models with the ability to capture uncertainty is of crucial importance in machine learning. Uncertainty can be categorized into two main types: epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty (Kiureghian & Ditlevsen, 2009). Epistemic uncertainty accounts for subjective uncertainty in the model, one that is reducible given sufficient data. By contrast, aleatoric uncertainty captures the stochasticity inherent in the observations and can itself be subdivided into homoscedastic and heteroscedastic uncertainty. Homoscedastic uncertainty corresponds to noise that is constant across the input space, whereas heteroscedastic uncertainty corresponds to noise that varies with the input. There are well-established benefits for modeling each type of uncertainty.

The Evidential regression network (ENet) estimates a continuous target and its predictive uncertainty without costly Bayesian model averaging. However, it is possible that the target is inaccurately predicted due to the gradient shrinkage problem of the original loss function of the ENet, the negative log marginal likelihood (NLL) loss. In this paper, the objective is to improve the prediction accuracy of the ENet while maintaining its efficient uncertainty estimation by resolving the gradient shrinkage problem. A multi-task learning (MTL) framework, referred to as MT-ENet, is proposed to accomplish this aim. In the MTL, we define the Lipschitz modified mean squared error (MSE) loss function as another loss and add it to the existing NLL loss. The Lipschitz modified MSE loss is designed to mitigate the gradient conflict with the NLL loss by dynamically adjusting its Lipschitz constant. By doing so, the Lipschitz MSE loss does not disturb the uncertainty estimation of the NLL loss. The MT-ENet enhances the predictive accuracy of the ENet without losing uncertainty estimation capability on the synthetic dataset and real-world benchmarks, including drug-target affinity (DTA) regression. Furthermore, the MT-ENet shows remarkable calibration and out-of-distribution detection capability on the DTA benchmarks.