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Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction

Lou, Xiayin, Luo, Peng

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, and recent work by Snell \& Griffiths reframes it as Bayesian Quadrature (BQ-CP), yielding powerful data-conditional guarantees via Dirichlet posteriors over thresholds. However, BQ-CP fundamentally requires the i.i.d. assumption -- a limitation the authors themselves identify. Meanwhile, weighted conformal prediction handles distribution shift via importance weights but remains frequentist, producing only point-estimate thresholds. We propose \textbf{Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction (WBCP)}, which generalizes BQ-CP to arbitrary importance-weighted settings by replacing the uniform Dirichlet $\Dir(1,\ldots,1)$ with a weighted Dirichlet $\Dir(\neff \cdot \tilde{w}_1, \ldots, \neff \cdot \tilde{w}_n)$, where $\neff$ is Kish's effective sample size. We prove four theoretical results: (1)~$\neff$ is the unique concentration parameter matching frequentist and Bayesian variances; (2)~posterior standard deviation decays as $O(1/\sqrt{\neff})$; (3)~BQ-CP's stochastic dominance guarantee extends to per-weight-profile data-conditional guarantees; (4)~the HPD threshold provides $O(1/\sqrt{\neff})$ improvement in conditional coverage. We instantiate WBCP for spatial prediction as \emph{Geographical BQ-CP}, where kernel-based spatial weights yield per-location posteriors with interpretable diagnostics. Experiments on synthetic and real-world spatial datasets demonstrate that WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing substantially richer uncertainty information.


d5c04aa72b92c53bda5b525b60958295-Supplemental-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Westudy linear regression under covariate shift, where themarginal distribution over the input covariates differs in the source and the target domains, while the conditional distribution of the output given the input covariates is similar across thetwodomains.


'The challenges are real': TUC taskforce to examine AI threat to workers' rights

The Guardian

"We can't let existential risks blind us to the challenges we face today," says Gina Neff, a tech expert at the University of Cambridge and co-chair of a new TUC taskforce on artificial intelligence in the workplace. "Those challenges are real, and they're faced by all of us." Rishi Sunak is hosting a global AI safety summit in November, amid hair-raising concerns raised by tech gurus – some of whom have even warned the technology could destroy humanity. Sunak, a Stanford graduate, is known at Westminster as a wannabe West Coast tech bro, with his branded hoodies and Palm Angels sliders, and has picked up on the "existential" threats highlighted by some of the biggest names in Silicon Valley. Neff welcomes the prime minister's decision to call the summit. But today, without a hoodie in sight, she has come together with two fellow female tech experts – Dee Masters, an employment barrister, and the TUC campaigner Mary Towers – to discuss a more immediate, albeit less apocalyptic, threat from AI: the risk to workers' rights.


Fireworks could fizzle out as drones rise in popularity for new year

The Guardian

As new year approaches, crowds around the world may be expecting whizzes and bangs to light up the sky. One notable example was the opening ceremony of this year's Tokyo Olympics, while the Over the Top NYE event at Reunion Tower in Dallas is among those planning to combine fireworks and drones to welcome 2022. They are also being embraced at a local level: more than 1,000 people watched a drone display at Mercia Marina in Derbyshire to celebrate Bonfire Night this year. Ollie Howitt, the creative coordinator at SkyMagic, which used a fleet of 300 drones to create a display for the mayor of London's new year celebration last year, said demand had increased substantially, something the pandemic has helped accelerate. She added that drones were increasingly able to fly in greater density and for longer.


Can Artificial Intelligence Save Us From Asteroidal Armageddon?

#artificialintelligence

NASA'S Planetary Defense Coordination Office uses the Catalina Sky Survey facility in Tucson,... [ ] Arizona, to catalog space objects Even in this age of high-speed data analysis, a keen human eye normally can't be beaten when poring over images of potential asteroidal impactors. But Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) could soon change all that. The El Segundo, Calif.-based Aerospace Corporation is now testing A.I. software designed to help astronomers speed up the process of identifying and tracking threatening Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office already uses numerous telescopes to find and monitor NEOs that might have the potential to impact Earth. But the non-profit Aerospace Corporation's A.I. team is working with NASA on implementing software dubbed NEO AID (Near-Earth Object Artificial Intelligence Detection) to differentiate false positives from asteroids and comets that might be real threats.


Can Artificial Intelligence Save Us From Asteroidal Armageddon?

#artificialintelligence

NASA'S Planetary Defense Coordination Office uses the Catalina Sky Survey facility in Tucson, Arizona, to catalog space objects Even in this age of high-speed data analysis, a keen human eye normally can't be beaten when poring over images of potential asteroidal impactors. But Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) could soon change all that. The El Segundo, Calif.-based Aerospace Corporation is now testing A.I. software designed to help astronomers speed up the process of identifying and tracking threatening Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office already uses numerous telescopes to find and monitor NEOs that might have the potential to impact Earth. But the non-profit Aerospace Corporation's A.I. team is working with NASA on implementing software dubbed NEO AID (Near-Earth Object Artificial Intelligence Detection) to differentiate false positives from asteroids and comets that might be real threats.


Google introduces machine learning ad tools and brands are hot for them

#artificialintelligence

The new tools include responsive search ads that mix, match, and optimize ads in real time to show the best-performing ad for each search query; a new way to optimize performance of YouTube ads for "brand lift" (increasing customers' awareness, ad recall, consideration, and favorability); and a new campaign type designed to drive foot traffic to local businesses by automatically optimizing their ads across Search, YouTube, and Maps. Marketers are excited to give them a spin. "They're making it simpler for business to create ads and, more importantly, understand the success of those ads," says Eric Heaton, tech director at global creative agency B-Reel, which works with brands like Nike, H&M, and Google. "The products surrounding campaign tracking and insights are going to be a real game changer, especially the cross-device behavior tracking, and the new'Instant Reporting' feature on [Google Marketing Platform]. Marketers will be able to better understand the way users are engaging with their ads, and adapt them in real time."


Does AI have gender? – Becoming Human: Artificial Intelligence Magazine

#artificialintelligence

We have a tendency to anthropomorphise technology. We name cars, boats, and sometimes even washing machines. We humanise technical actors in our world and give them human characteristics -- fussy, moody, happy, sad. And when it comes to gender, this counts. It counts because it both reflects current social norms and can in part shape how we view gender moving forward.


Artificial Intelligence: Your Creative Partner or Replacement?

#artificialintelligence

From a marketing standpoint, here are three ways AI can serve as a creative partner, courtesy of Chris Neff, Executive Producer, Director of Digital and Experiential, with Tool of North America. Look no further than tools like Wordsmith. Machine learning is an obvious choice for simple, time-sensitive copy needs, freeing up creative minds to concentrate on strategic ideation. You'll save both time and money along the way. Accenture reports that 90 percent of marketers expect their content needs to grow over the next two years.


Generalization in Decision Trees and DNF: Does Size Matter?

Golea, Mostefa, Bartlett, Peter L., Lee, Wee Sun, Mason, Llew

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recent theoretical results for pattern classification with thresholded real-valuedfunctions (such as support vector machines, sigmoid networks,and boosting) give bounds on misclassification probability that do not depend on the size of the classifier, and hence can be considerably smaller than the bounds that follow from the VC theory. In this paper, we show that these techniques can be more widely applied, by representing other boolean functions as two-layer neural networks (thresholded convex combinations of boolean functions).