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Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciar\'an

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There has been huge recent interest in the potential of making operational weather forecasts using machine learning techniques. As they become a part of the weather forecasting toolbox, there is a pressing need to understand how well current machine learning models can simulate high-impactweather events. We compare forecasts of Storm Ciar\'an, a European windstorm that caused sixteen deaths and extensive damage in Northern Europe, made by machine learning and numericalweather prediction models. The four machine learning models considered (FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather, GraphCast and FourCastNet-v2) produce forecasts that accurately capture the synoptic-scale structure of the cyclone including the position of the cloud head, shape of the warm sector and location of warm conveyor belt jet, and the large-scale dynamical drivers important for the rapid storm development such as the position of the storm relative to the upper-level jet exit. However, their ability to resolve the more detailed structures important for issuing weather warnings is more mixed. All of the machine learning models underestimate the peak amplitude of winds associated with the storm, only some machine learning models resolve the warm core seclusion and none of the machine learning models capture the sharp bent-back warm frontal gradient. Our study shows there is a great deal about the performance and properties of machine learning weather forecasts that can be derived from case studies of high-impact weather events such as Storm Ciar\'an.


Best of Machine Learning Research in 2022 part3

#artificialintelligence

Abstract: Microstructural heterogeneity affects the macro-scale behavior of materials. Conversely, load distribution at the macro-scale changes the microstructural response. These up-scaling and down-scaling relations are often modeled using multiscale finite element (FE) approaches such as FE-squared (FE2). However, FE2 requires numerous calculations at the micro-scale, which often renders this approach intractable. This paper reports an enormously faster machine learning (ML) based approach for multiscale mechanics modeling.


Towards Benchmarking Explainable Artificial Intelligence Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The currently dominating artificial intelligence and machine learning technology, neural networks, builds on inductive statistical learning. Neural networks of today are information processing systems void of understanding and reasoning capabilities, consequently, they cannot explain promoted decisions in a humanly valid form. In this work, we revisit and use fundamental philosophy of science theories as an analytical lens with the goal of revealing, what can be expected, and more importantly, not expected, from methods that aim to explain decisions promoted by a neural network. By conducting a case study we investigate a selection of explainability method's performance over two mundane domains, animals and headgear. Through our study, we lay bare that the usefulness of these methods relies on human domain knowledge and our ability to understand, generalise and reason. The explainability methods can be useful when the goal is to gain further insights into a trained neural network's strengths and weaknesses. If our aim instead is to use these explainability methods to promote actionable decisions or build trust in ML-models they need to be less ambiguous than they are today. In this work, we conclude from our study, that benchmarking explainability methods, is a central quest towards trustworthy artificial intelligence and machine learning.


How Machine Learning Cleans Spam Messages from the Mail?

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The ML-model leverages supervised learning and tokenization to clear the spam messages from the mail. The amount of mails sent and received has significantly increased over the past few years. A report states that more than 300 billion emails were sent and received each day in 2020, and this figure is expected to increase by over 361 billion emails daily in 2024. Spam mails contribute majorly to this exponential increase in mails. And while cleaning the spam messages from the Gmail account might seem tricky, the machine learning model holds more accountability than the traditional method to perform the task.


How to apply Machine Learning to Android using Fritz.ai

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This article describes how to apply Machine Learning to Android using Fritz.ai. Before diving into the details about how to develop a Machine learning Android app, it is useful to describe briefly what is Fritz.ai As you may know, Machine Learning is an interesting topic that is gaining importance and promises to transform several areas including the way we interact with Android apps. To experiment how to apply Machine Learning to Android using Fritz.ai Machine Learning is an application of AI that gives to a system the capability to accomplish tasks without using explicit instructions but learning from the data and improving from experience.