In this paper, we draw an analogy between processing natural languages and processing multivariate event streams from vehicles in order to predict $\textit{when}$ and $\textit{what}$ error pattern is most likely to occur in the future for a given car. Our approach leverages the temporal dynamics and contextual relationships of our event data from a fleet of cars. Event data is composed of discrete values of error codes as well as continuous values such as time and mileage. Modelled by two causal Transformers, we can anticipate vehicle failures and malfunctions before they happen. Thus, we introduce $\textit{CarFormer}$, a Transformer model trained via a new self-supervised learning strategy, and $\textit{EPredictor}$, an autoregressive Transformer decoder model capable of predicting $\textit{when}$ and $\textit{what}$ error pattern will most likely occur after some error code apparition. Despite the challenges of high cardinality of event types, their unbalanced frequency of appearance and limited labelled data, our experimental results demonstrate the excellent predictive ability of our novel model. Specifically, with sequences of $160$ error codes on average, our model is able with only half of the error codes to achieve $80\%$ F1 score for predicting $\textit{what}$ error pattern will occur and achieves an average absolute error of $58.4 \pm 13.2$h $\textit{when}$ forecasting the time of occurrence, thus enabling confident predictive maintenance and enhancing vehicle safety.

Deployed SAE level 4+ Automated Driving Systems (ADS) without a human driver are currently operational ride-hailing fleets on surface streets in the United States. This current use case and future applications of this technology will determine where and when the fleets operate, potentially resulting in a divergence from the distribution of driving of some human benchmark population within a given locality. Existing benchmarks for evaluating ADS performance have only done county-level geographical matching of the ADS and benchmark driving exposure in crash rates. This study presents a novel methodology for constructing dynamic human benchmarks that adjust for spatial and temporal variations in driving distribution between an ADS and the overall human driven fleet. Dynamic benchmarks were generated using human police-reported crash data, human vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data, and over 20 million miles of Waymo's rider-only (RO) operational data accumulated across three US counties. The spatial adjustment revealed significant differences across various severity levels in adjusted crash rates compared to unadjusted benchmarks with these differences ranging from 10% to 47% higher in San Francisco, 12% to 20% higher in Maricopa, and 7% lower to 34% higher in Los Angeles counties. The time-of-day adjustment in San Francisco, limited to this region due to data availability, resulted in adjusted crash rates 2% lower to 16% higher than unadjusted rates, depending on severity level. The findings underscore the importance of adjusting for spatial and temporal confounders in benchmarking analysis, which ultimately contributes to a more equitable benchmark for ADS performance evaluations.

Despite recent advancements in AI and NLP, negotiation remains a difficult domain for AI agents. Traditional game theoretic approaches that have worked well for two-player zero-sum games struggle in the context of negotiation due to their inability to learn human-compatible strategies. On the other hand, approaches that only use human data tend to be domain-specific and lack the theoretical guarantees provided by strategies grounded in game theory. Motivated by the notion of fairness as a criterion for optimality in general sum games, we propose a negotiation framework called FDHC which incorporates fairness into both the reward design and search to learn human-compatible negotiation strategies. Our method includes a novel, RL+search technique called LGM-Zero which leverages a pre-trained language model to retrieve human-compatible offers from large action spaces. Our results show that our method is able to achieve more egalitarian negotiation outcomes and improve negotiation quality.

With fully automated driving systems (ADS; SAE level 4) ride-hailing services expanding in the US, we are now approaching an inflection point, where the process of retrospectively evaluating ADS safety impact can start to yield statistically credible conclusions. An ADS safety impact measurement requires a comparison to a "benchmark" crash rate. This study aims to address, update, and extend the existing literature by leveraging police-reported crashes to generate human crash rates for multiple geographic areas with current ADS deployments. All of the data leveraged is publicly accessible, and the benchmark determination methodology is intended to be repeatable and transparent. Generating a benchmark that is comparable to ADS crash data is associated with certain challenges, including data selection, handling underreporting and reporting thresholds, identifying the population of drivers and vehicles to compare against, choosing an appropriate severity level to assess, and matching crash and mileage exposure data. Consequently, we identify essential steps when generating benchmarks, and present our analyses amongst a backdrop of existing ADS benchmark literature. One analysis presented is the usage of established underreporting correction methodology to publicly available human driver police-reported data to improve comparability to publicly available ADS crash data. We also identify important dependencies in controlling for geographic region, road type, and vehicle type, and show how failing to control for these features can bias results. This body of work aims to contribute to the ability of the community - researchers, regulators, industry, and experts - to reach consensus on how to estimate accurate benchmarks.

Developing Hybrid Machine Learning Models to Assign Health Score to Railcar Fleets for Optimal Decision Making Mahyar Ejlali, Ebrahim Arian, Sajjad Taghiyeh, Kristina Chambers, Amir Hossein Sadeghi, Demet Cakdi, Robert B Handfield An expert hybrid predictive fault method is proposed based on fast-DBSCAN and PCA. Inspection data from 1986-2020 of North American Railcar Owner (NARO) is used. The model is able to predict future faults in the railcar fleet accurately. Abstract A large amount of data is generated during the operation of a railcar fleet, which can easily lead to dimensional disaster and reduce the resiliency of the railcar network. To solve these issues and offer predictive maintenance, this research introduces a hybrid fault diagnosis expert system method that combines density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) and principal component analysis (PCA). Firstly, the DBSCAN method is used to cluster categorical data that are similar to one another within the same group. Secondly, PCA algorithm is applied to reduce the dimensionality of the data and eliminate redundancy in order to improve the accuracy of fault diagnosis. Finally, we explain the engineered features and evaluate the selected models by using the Gain Chart and Area Under Curve (AUC) metrics. We use the hybrid expert system model to enhance maintenance planning decisions by assigning a health score to the railcar system of the North American Railcar Owner (NARO). According to the experimental results, our expert model can detect 96.4% of failures within 50% of the sample. This suggests that our method is effective at diagnosing failures in railcars fleet. Keywords: Expert system, Predictive maintenance, Railcar maintenance, Machine learning, Maintenance health score 1. Introduction Maintenance consists of activities that ensure the railcar assets continue to operate safely and reliably. These activities include inspection, repair, testing, and replacement of parts.

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems have become increasingly common and the trend will continue. Examples of AI systems include autonomous vehicles (AV), computer vision, natural language processing, and AI medical experts. To allow for safe and effective deployment of AI systems, the reliability of such systems needs to be assessed. Traditionally, reliability assessment is based on reliability test data and the subsequent statistical modeling and analysis. The availability of reliability data for AI systems, however, is limited because such data are typically sensitive and proprietary. The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) oversees and regulates an AV testing program, in which many AV manufacturers are conducting AV road tests. Manufacturers participating in the program are required to report recurrent disengagement events to California DMV. This information is being made available to the public. In this paper, we use recurrent disengagement events as a representation of the reliability of the AI system in AV, and propose a statistical framework for modeling and analyzing the recurrent events data from AV driving tests. We use traditional parametric models in software reliability and propose a new nonparametric model based on monotonic splines to describe the event process. We develop inference procedures for selecting the best models, quantifying uncertainty, and testing heterogeneity in the event process. We then analyze the recurrent events data from four AV manufacturers, and make inferences on the reliability of the AI systems in AV. We also describe how the proposed analysis can be applied to assess the reliability of other AI systems.

Let's set up the required configuration and start MindsDB. If you are following this tutorial with your own data, you can skip to the next section. For this example we will use the Audi Car Price dataset from the 100k used cars scraped data. The dataset contains information on price, transmission, mileage, fuel type, road tax, miles per gallon (mpg), and engine size of the used cars in the UK. The idea is to predict the price depending on the above features. The first thing we need to do is to create the table.

We like our insurance carriers to be risk averse. So it should come as no surprise they are often last to innovate. Insurers need to feel very comfortable with their risk predictions before making a change. Well, machine learning is writing a new chapter in the old insurance book. With time, we see that successful pilots become products.

Due to the complication of the presented problem, intelligent algorithms show great power to solve the parts logistics optimization problem related to the vehicle routing problem (VRP). However, most of the existing research to VRP are incomprehensive and failed to solve a real-work parts logistics problem. In this work, towards SAIC logistics problem, we propose a systematic solution to this 2-Dimensional Loading Capacitated Multi-Depot Heterogeneous VRP with Time Windows by integrating diverse types of intelligent algorithms, including, a heuristic algorithm to initialize feasible logistics planning schemes by imitating manual planning, the core Tabu Search algorithm for global optimization, accelerated by a novel bundle technique, heuristically algorithms for routing, packing and queuing associated, and a heuristic post-optimization process to promote the optimal solution. Based on these algorithms, the SAIC Motor has successfully established an intelligent management system to give a systematic solution for the parts logistics planning, superior than manual planning in its performance, customizability and expandability.

A new report has called into question the conclusion of an investigation launched by the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in 2016 following a fatal Tesla crash. The NHTSA looked into the safety of Tesla's autonomous assistance features after a Model S operating with Autopilot struck a tractor trailer that year, killing the Tesla driver in the first deadly accident of its kind. Ultimately, the NHTSA determined that the system wasn't just safe, but actually slashed crash rates by nearly 40 percent. A new investigation using data obtained through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit, however, shows that the reality is a lot more complicated. According to Quality Control Systems Corporation, which conducted the new analysis, the NHTSA misinterpreted the data it was provided; instead of reducing crashes, the findings suggest autosteer may have made accidents more common.