We study U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting under distributional uncertainty and recast forecasting as an operations research and managerial decision problem. Rather than minimizing average forecast error, the forecaster selects a decision rule that minimizes worst case expected loss over an ambiguity set of forecast error distributions. To this end, we propose a distributionally robust ensemble forecasting framework that integrates parametric factor models with high dimensional nonparametric machine learning models through adaptive forecast combinations. The framework consists of three machine learning components. First, a rolling window Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson Siegel model captures level, slope, and curvature dynamics using principal components extracted from economic indicators. Second, Random Forest models capture nonlinear interactions among macro financial drivers and lagged Treasury yields. Third, distributionally robust forecast combination schemes aggregate heterogeneous forecasts under moment uncertainty, penalizing downside tail risk via expected shortfall and stabilizing second moment estimation through ridge regularized covariance matrices. The severity of the worst case criterion is adjustable, allowing the forecaster to regulate the trade off between robustness and statistical efficiency. Using monthly data, we evaluate out of sample forecasts across maturities and horizons from one to twelve months ahead. Adaptive combinations deliver superior performance at short horizons, while Random Forest forecasts dominate at longer horizons. Extensions to global sovereign bond yields confirm the stability and generalizability of the proposed framework.

We develop an arbitrage-free deep learning framework for yield curve and bond price forecasting based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term-structure model and a dynamic Nelson-Siegel parameterization of forward rates. Our approach embeds a no-arbitrage drift restriction into a neural state-space architecture by combining Kalman, extended Kalman, and particle filters with recurrent neural networks (LSTM/CLSTM), and introduces an explicit arbitrage error regularization (AER) term during training. The model is applied to U.S. Treasury and corporate bond data, and its performance is evaluated for both yield-space and price-space predictions at 1-day and 5-day horizons. Empirically, arbitrage regularization leads to its strongest improvements at short maturities, particularly in 5-day-ahead forecasts, increasing market-consistency as measured by bid-ask hit rates and reducing dollar-denominated prediction errors.

We thank the reviewers for their comments to improve the paper. The main contributions have been well identified, i.e. Most banks and hedge-funds use IV surfaces (IVSs) and need such models. We will clarify by bringing Appendix E.2 (our current "broader impact section", not detailed enough) to the main text, We tested, our approach works both in high-vol periods (e.g., 09/2008) and with We will add figures/tables to the appendix. Apologies, we do not understand.

Robust yield curve estimation is crucial in fixed-income markets for accurate instrument pricing, effective risk management, and informed trading strategies. Traditional approaches, including the bootstrapping method and parametric Nelson-Siegel models, often struggle with overfitting or instability issues, especially when underlying bonds are sparse, bond prices are volatile, or contain hard-to-remove noise. In this paper, we propose a neural networkbased framework for robust yield curve estimation tailored to small mortgage bond markets. Our model estimates the yield curve independently for each day and introduces a new loss function to enforce smoothness and stability, addressing challenges associated with limited and noisy data. Empirical results on Swedish mortgage bonds demonstrate that our approach delivers more robust and stable yield curve estimates compared to existing methods such as Nelson-Siegel-Svensson (NSS) and Kernel-Ridge (KR). Furthermore, the framework allows for the integration of domain-specific constraints, such as alignment with risk-free benchmarks, enabling practitioners to balance the trade-off between smoothness and accuracy according to their needs.

We report the performance on these generalization tasks for the final policy obtained at the end of training.

--As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly embedded in healthcare technologies, understanding the maturity of AI in patient -centric applications is critical for evaluating its trustworthiness, transparency, and real -world impact. In this study, we investigate the integration and maturity of AI feature integration in 116 patient-centric healthcare applications. Using Large Language Models (LLMs), we extracted key functional features, which are then categorized into different stages of the Gartner AI maturity model. Our results show that over 86.21% of applications remain at the early stages of AI integration, while only 13.79% demonstrate advanced AI integration. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly gaining traction across various sectors, including health care. However, the current state and maturity of its integration into real -world mobile health applications remain largely underexplored. In particular, it is not yet clear who the primary users of these AI - enabled features are, patients or health care providers, and for what specific purposes they are being employed. Foundational Models (FMs), large-scale AI models trained on diverse and extensive datasets, have recently emerged as a transformative force across multiple domains.

In this research, we explore neural network-based methods for pricing multidimensional American put options under the BlackScholes and Heston model, extending up to five dimensions. We focus on two approaches: the Time Deep Gradient Flow (TDGF) method and the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM). We extend the TDGF method to handle the free-boundary partial differential equation inherent in American options. We carefully design the sampling strategy during training to enhance performance. Both TDGF and DGM achieve high accuracy while outperforming conventional Monte Carlo methods in terms of computational speed. In particular, TDGF tends to be faster during training than DGM.

Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show that shifts in semantic embedding space can be causally linked to financial market shocks -- deviations from the expected market behaviour. Furthermore, we show how partisanship can influence the predictive power of text for market fluctuations and shape reactions to those same shocks. We also provide some evidence that text-based signals are particularly salient during unexpected events such as COVID-19, highlighting the value of language data as an exogenous variable in economic forecasting. Our findings underscore the bidirectional relationship between news outlets and market shocks, offering a novel empirical approach to studying their effect on each other.