The Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) and its joint-independence extension $d\mathrm{HSIC}$ are degenerate $V$-statistics whose data-dependent weighted-$χ^2$ null limits force a permutation calibration that multiplies the per-test cost by the number of permutations, in practice two orders of magnitude. Adapting the recent martingale MMD construction for two-sample testing to the (joint) independence problem, we introduce two studentised statistics whose null distributions are standard normal regardless of the data law, so that a single normal-quantile lookup replaces the permutation step entirely. The first, $m\mathrm{HSIC}$, is a self-normalised lower-triangular sum of the Hadamard product of two empirically centred Gram matrices. Under independence and bounded-fourth-moment kernels it converges to a standard normal. It is consistent against every fixed alternative, and runs at quadratic cost in the sample size without any sample split, matching the biased HSIC $V$-statistic. Our second statistic, $md\mathrm{HSIC}$, achieves finite-sample consistency with a single half-sample split: the centring is estimated on one half and the lower-triangular self-normalised martingale is run on the other, shrinking the conditional-mean residual to a quantity that is exponentially small in $d$, so the statistic is asymptotically standard normal at every fixed number of jointly tested variables, with a per-test cost that grows only linearly in $d$. On synthetic data with per-variable input dimension from $1$ to $500$ and between $2$ and $10$ jointly tested variables, both statistics match the empirical type-I error rate and test power of permutation-calibrated baselines while running $25$ to $60\times$ faster.

For continuous state-action space scenarios, classical reinforcement learning (RL) theory predominantly focuses on low-rank Markov decision processes (MDPs), which provide sample-efficient guarantees at the expense of restrictive structural assumptions. Kernel smoothing model-based approaches offer a promising alternative paradigm that instead leverages the smoothness of the MDP and employs non-parametric kernel smoothing estimates of transition dynamics. This paper proposes a new kernel-smoothing model-based approach for online reinforcement learning in finite-horizon settings under Lipschitz continuity assumptions on the MDP. By incorporating a Bernstein-style exploration bonus into the kernel smoothing framework, our method achieves a regret bound which improves upon the state-of-the-art regret bound in its dependence on the horizon. The theoretical advancement relies on a delicate analysis of the synergy between Bernstein-style bonuses and kernel smoothing, where a new tight Bernstein-type concentration inequality for martingales may be of independent interest.

Self-normalized martingale inequalities lie at the heart of confidence ellipsoids for online least squares and, more broadly, many bandit and reinforcement-learning results. Yet existing vector and scalar results typically rely on bounded covariates and an explicit regularization matrix, producing bounds that are \emph{not scale-invariant}: although the self-normalized quantity is scale-invariant by definition, its standard upper bounds are not. We characterize when scale-invariant upper bounds on self-normalized martingales are possible. Without further assumptions, we prove that nontrivial scale-invariant bounds exist only in dimension $d=1$; moreover, in $d=1$ we obtain $O(\log T)$ scale-invariant self-normalized bounds without any assumptions on the covariates. In contrast, for $d>1$ we show that no nontrivial scale-invariant bound can hold in full generality. We then connect this dichotomy to \emph{doubly-uniform} regret in online linear regression (i.e., regret bounds that are simultaneously independent of the covariate scale and the comparator norm) and use it to resolve the open question of Gaillard, Gerchinovitz, Huard, and Stoltz, \emph{``Uniform regret bounds over $\mathbb{R}^d$ for the sequential linear regression problem with the square loss''} (ALT 2019): in $d=1$ we give an explicit algorithm with $O(\log T)$ doubly-uniform regret, whereas for $d>1$ sublinear doubly-uniform regret is impossible. Finally, under a natural \emph{smoothness} condition (bounded Radon--Nikodym derivatives of the conditional covariate laws with respect to a fixed base measure), we recover sublinear regret for $d>1$ without bounded covariates and derive a self-normalized concentration inequality free of the usual regularization penalties, yielding arguably a first natural scale-invariant bound for adaptive, non-i.i.d. vector martingales.

Many experiments compare count outcomes among treatment groups. Examples include the number of successful signups in conversion rate experiments or the number of errors produced by software versions in canary tests. Observations typically arrive in a sequence and practitioners wish to continuously monitor their experiments, sequentially testing hypotheses while maintaining Type I error probabilities under optional stopping and continuation. These goals are frequently complicated in practice by non-stationary time dynamics. We provide practical solutions through sequential tests of multinomial hypotheses, hypotheses about many inhomogeneous Bernoulli processes and hypotheses about many timeinhomogeneous Poisson counting processes. For estimation, we further provide confidence sequences for multinomial probability vectors, all contrasts among probabilities of inhomogeneous Bernoulli processes and all contrasts among intensities of time-inhomogeneous Poisson counting processes. Together, these provide an "anytime-valid" inference framework for a wide variety of experiments dealing with count outcomes, which we illustrate with several industry applications.

Contextual learning seeks to learn a decision policy that maps an individual's characteristics to an action through data collection. In operations management, such data may come from various sources, and a central question is when data collection can stop while still guaranteeing that the learned policy is sufficiently accurate. We study this question under two precision criteria: a context-wise criterion and an aggregate policy-value criterion. We develop unified stopping rules for contextual learning with unknown sampling variances in both unstructured and structured linear settings. Our approach is based on generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistics for pairwise action comparisons. To calibrate the corresponding sequential boundaries, we derive new time-uniform deviation inequalities that directly control the self-normalized GLR evidence and thus avoid the conservativeness caused by decoupling mean and variance uncertainty. Under the Gaussian sampling model, we establish finite-sample precision guarantees for both criteria. Numerical experiments on synthetic instances and two case studies demonstrate that the proposed stopping rules achieve the target precision with substantially fewer samples than benchmark methods. The proposed framework provides a practical way to determine when enough information has been collected in personalized decision problems. It applies across multiple data-collection environments, including historical datasets, simulation models, and real systems, enabling practitioners to reduce unnecessary sampling while maintaining a desired level of decision quality.

We study one-sided and $α$-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set $P$ of stochastic matrices, and the alternative corresponds to a disjoint set $Q$. We establish a tight non-asymptotic instance-dependent lower bound on the expected stopping time of any valid sequential test under the alternative. Our novel analysis improves the existing lower bounds, which are either asymptotic or provably sub-optimal in this setting. Our lower bound incorporates both the stationary distribution and the transition structure induced by the unknown Markov chain. We further propose an optimal test whose expected stopping time matches this lower bound asymptotically as $α\to 0$. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework through applications to sequential detection of model misspecification in Markov Chain Monte Carlo and to testing structural properties, such as the linearity of transition dynamics, in Markov decision processes. Our findings yield a sharp and general characterization of optimal sequential testing procedures under Markovian dependence.

Machine learning models are increasingly trained or fine-tuned on synthetic data. Recursively training on such data has been observed to significantly degrade performance in a wide range of tasks, often characterized by a progressive drift away from the target distribution. In this work, we theoretically analyze this phenomenon in the setting of score-based diffusion models. For a realistic pipeline where each training round uses a combination of synthetic data and fresh samples from the target distribution, we obtain upper and lower bounds on the accumulated divergence between the generated and target distributions. This allows us to characterize different regimes of drift, depending on the score estimation error and the proportion of fresh data used in each generation. We also provide empirical results on synthetic data and images to illustrate the theory.

We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how atypical the new sample is relative to past observations. While this design yields anytime-valid type-I error control, it suffers from test-time contamination: after a change, post-shift observations enter the reference set and dilute the evidence for distribution shift, increasing detection delay and reducing power. In contrast, our method avoids contamination by design by comparing each new sample to a fixed null reference dataset. Our main technical contribution is a robust martingale construction that remains valid conditional on the null reference data, achieved by explicitly accounting for the estimation error in the reference distribution induced by the finite reference set. This yields anytime-valid type-I error control together with guarantees of asymptotic power one and bounded expected detection delay. Empirically, our method detects shifts faster than standard CTMs, providing a powerful and reliable distribution-shift detector.