Predicting Parkinson's Disease (PD) progression is crucial, and voice biomarkers offer a non-invasive method for tracking symptom severity (UPDRS scores) through telemonitoring. Analyzing this longitudinal data is challenging due to within-subject correlations and complex, nonlinear patient-specific progression patterns. This study benchmarks LMMs against two advanced hybrid approaches: the Generalized Neural Network Mixed Model (GNMM) (Mandel 2021), which embeds a neural network within a GLMM structure, and the Neural Mixed Effects (NME) model (Wortwein 2023), allowing nonlinear subject-specific parameters throughout the network. Using the Oxford Parkinson's telemonitoring voice dataset, we evaluate these models' performance in predicting Total UPDRS to offer practical guidance for PD research and clinical applications.

Survival analysis is a critical tool for modeling time-to-event data. Recent deep learning-based models have reduced various modeling assumptions including proportional hazard and linearity. However, a persistent challenge remains in incorporating longitudinal covariates, with prior work largely focusing on cross-sectional features, and in assessing calibration of these models, with research primarily focusing on discrimination during evaluation. We introduce TraCeR, a transformer-based survival analysis framework for incorporating longitudinal covariates. Based on a factorized self-attention architecture, TraCeR estimates the hazard function from a sequence of measurements, naturally capturing temporal covariate interactions without assumptions about the underlying data-generating process. The framework is inherently designed to handle censored data and competing events. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that TraCeR achieves substantial and statistically significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, our evaluation extends beyond discrimination metrics and assesses model calibration, addressing a key oversight in literature.

The conventional approach to imputing longitudinal data is to employ a parametric model with mixed-effects, such as the linear mixed-effects model.

The conventional approach to imputing longitudinal data is to employ a parametric model with mixed-effects, such as the linear mixed-effects model.

We propose a Bayesian mixed-effects model to learn typical scenarios of changes from longitudinal manifold-valued data, namely repeated measurements of the same objects or individuals at several points in time. The model allows to estimate a group-average trajectory in the space of measurements. Random variations of this trajectory result from spatiotemporal transformations, which allow changes in the direction of the trajectory and in the pace at which trajectories are followed. The use of the tools of Riemannian geometry allows to derive a generic algorithm for any kind of data with smooth constraints, which lie therefore on a Riemannian manifold. Stochastic approximations of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm is used to estimate the model parameters in this highly non-linear setting. The method is used to estimate a data-driven model of the progressive impairments of cognitive functions during the onset of Alzheimer's disease. Experimental results show that the model correctly put into correspondence the age at which each individual was diagnosed with the disease, thus validating the fact that it effectively estimated a normative scenario of disease progression. Random effects provide unique insights into the variations in the ordering and timing of the succession of cognitive impairments across different individuals.

Multivariate longitudinal data of mixed-type are increasingly collected in many science domains. However, algorithms to cluster this kind of data remain scarce, due to the challenge to simultaneously model the within- and between-time dependence structures for multivariate data of mixed kind. We introduce the Mixture of Mixed-Matrices (MMM) model: reorganizing the data in a three-way structure and assuming that the non-continuous variables are observations of underlying latent continuous variables, the model relies on a mixture of matrix-variate normal distributions to perform clustering in the latent dimension. The MMM model is thus able to handle continuous, ordinal, binary, nominal and count data and to concurrently model the heterogeneity, the association among the responses and the temporal dependence structure in a parsimonious way and without assuming conditional independence. The inference is carried out through an MCMC-EM algorithm, which is detailed. An evaluation of the model through synthetic data shows its inference abilities. A real-world application on financial data is presented.

Despite the diversity of brain data acquired and advanced AI-based algorithms to analyze them, brain features are rarely used in clinics for diagnosis and prognosis. Here we argue that the field continues to rely on cohort comparisons to seek biomarkers, despite the well-established degeneracy of brain features. Using a thought experiment, we show that more data and more powerful algorithms will not be sufficient to identify biomarkers of brain diseases. We argue that instead of comparing patient versus healthy controls using single data type, we should use multimodal (e.g. brain activity, neurotransmitters, neuromodulators, brain imaging) and longitudinal brain data to guide the grouping before defining multidimensional biomarkers for brain diseases.

Predicting an individual's aging trajectory is a central challenge in preventative medicine and bioinformatics. While machine learning models can predict chronological age from biomarkers, they often fail to capture the dynamic, longitudinal nature of the aging process. In this work, we developed and validated a machine learning pipeline to predict age using a longitudinal cohort with data from two distinct time periods (2019-2020 and 2021-2022). We demonstrate that a model using only static, cross-sectional biomarkers has limited predictive power when generalizing to future time points. However, by engineering novel features that explicitly capture the rate of change (slope) of key biomarkers over time, we significantly improved model performance. Our final LightGBM model, trained on the initial wave of data, successfully predicted age in the subsequent wave with high accuracy ($R^2 = 0.515$ for males, $R^2 = 0.498$ for females), significantly outperforming both traditional linear models and other tree-based ensembles. SHAP analysis of our successful model revealed that the engineered slope features were among the most important predictors, highlighting that an individual's health trajectory, not just their static health snapshot, is a key determinant of biological age. Our framework paves the way for clinical tools that dynamically track patient health trajectories, enabling early intervention and personalized prevention strategies for age-related diseases.

This note investigates the problem of detecting outliers in longitudinal data. It compares well-known methods used in official statistics with proposals from the fields of data mining and machine learning that are based on the distance between observations or binary partitioning trees. This is achieved by applying the methods to panel survey data related to different types of statistical units. Traditional methods are quite simple, enabling the direct identification of potential outliers, but they require specific assumptions. In contrast, recent methods provide only a score whose magnitude is directly related to the likelihood of an outlier being present. All the methods require the user to set a number of tuning parameters. However, the most recent methods are more flexible and sometimes more effective than traditional methods. In addition, these methods can be applied to multidimensional data.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.