Could the next great novel be written by AI (and would you even be able to tell)? Can you tell which, if any, were AI generated? "The hotel is in a great location for everything. Lots of places to eat and drink. The hotel itself is always abuzz. The tavern located on the ground floor is definitely a must. Food, service, prices and atmosphere were great." "A good hotel, though the room had the proportions of a well-appointed lift.

The New Movie Is Sparking a Right-Wing Backlash. Emily Wilson's 2017 translation of Homer's epic--the first by a woman--was called a woke "abomination" by online reactionaries. Christopher Nolan's film is facing similar critiques. Who'd have thought Helen of Troy would cause so much trouble? Earlier this year, certain quarters of the internet spun out at news that Kenyan-Mexican Oscar-winning actress Lupita Nyong'o was rumored to appear as the impossibly beautiful Spartan noble Helen--whose face, it was later written, launched a thousand ships--in Christopher Nolan's forthcoming Hollywood Homeric epic, The Odyssey The confirmation of her casting in May kicked off another wave of conniption fits.

We provide the first sharp characterization of the optimal first-order query complexity of agnostic active learning, and propose a new general active learning algorithm which achieves it. Remarkably, the optimal query complexity admits a leading term which is always strictly smaller than the sample complexity of passive supervised learning (by a factor proportional to the best-in-class error rate). This was not previously known to be possible. For comparison, in all previous general analyses, the leading term exhibits an additional factor, such as the disagreement coefficient or related complexity measures, and therefore only provides improvements over passive learning in restricted cases. The present work completely removes such factors from the leading term, implying that every concept class benefits from active learning in the non-realizable case. Whether such benefits are possible has been the driving question underlying the past two decades of research on the theory of agnostic active learning. This work finally settles this fundamental question.

Recent interest in Multi-Agent Systems of Large Language Models (MAS LLMs) has led to an increase in frameworks leveraging multiple LLMs to tackle complex tasks.

Recent work on first-order optimizers for empirical risk minimization (ERM) has suggested that smoothness of ERM loss functions in the training data, rather than in the optimization parameters, can be leveraged to improve the oracle complexity of gradient descent (GD) methods. In this paper, we propose an inexact gradient method, piecewise polynomial interpolation-based gradient descent (PPI-GD), which approximates the full gradient in each iteration by querying the first-order oracle at equidistant points in the data domain to construct polynomial interpolants of the resulting gradient samples over appropriately sized patches of the data domain. We analyze the oracle complexity of PPI-GD for strongly convex and non-convex loss functions when the data space dimension is bounded by a polylogarithmic function of the number of training samples, and find it to outperform several GD variants in key regimes when the loss function is sufficiently smooth. Furthermore, our analysis extends several techniques from the error analysis of bicubic spline interpolants to the setting of $d$-variate tensor product polynomial interpolants which may be of independent interest in interpolation analysis.

AI-driven discovery can greatly reduce design time and enhance new therapeutics' effectiveness. Models using simulators explore broad design spaces but risk violating implicit constraints due to a lack of experimental priors. For example, in a new analysis across diverse models on the GuacaMol benchmark using supervised classifiers, over 60% of molecules proposed had a high probability of being mutagenic. In this work, we introduce Medex, a dataset of priors for design problems extracted from literature describing compounds used in lab settings. It is constructed with LLM pipelines for discovering therapeutic entities in relevant paragraphs and summarizing information in concise fair-use facts. Medex consists of 32.3 million pairs of natural language facts, and appropriate entity representations (i.e.

We propose a flexible framework for modeling the predictive distributions of nonlinear, possibly multivariate time series. Our approach expresses a general predictive distribution in an appropriate generative representation that is based on a folklore result from measure theoretic probability. This representation provides a direct simulation-based approximation to the predictive distribution, enabling straightforward computation of forecasts for the conditional mean and variance, fan charts, value at risk, expected shortfall, joint tail risks, and other quantities of interest. We estimate this generative representation using a version of conditional generative adversarial networks and provide a formal statistical analysis of estimation under weak temporal dependence. Specifically, estimation is expressed as a particular minimax problem and we establish consistency of its approximate solutions in Hausdorff distance. The empirical relevance of the approach is illustrated using applications to equity returns, realized variance, and realized covariances. The proposed method is also computationally manageable, with estimation in our applications taking approximately one minute on a standard laptop.

Machine learning-based decision support systems are increasingly deployed in clinical settings, where probabilistic scoring functions are used to inform and prioritize patient management decisions. However, widely used scoring rules, such as accuracy and AUC-ROC, fail to adequately reflect key clinical priorities, including calibration, robustness to distributional shifts, and sensitivity to asymmetric error costs. In this work, we propose a principled yet practical evaluation framework for selecting calibrated thresholded classifiers that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in class prevalences and domain-specific cost asymmetries. Building on the theory of proper scoring rules, particularly the Schervish representation, we derive an adjusted variant of cross-entropy (log score) that averages cost-weighted performance over clinically relevant ranges of class balance. The resulting evaluation is simple to apply, sensitive to clinical deployment conditions, and designed to prioritize models that are both calibrated and robust to real-world variations.

Preference-based Pure Exploration (PrePEx) aims to identify with a given confidence level the set of Pareto optimal arms in a vector-valued (aka multi-objective) bandit, where the reward vectors are ordered via a (given) preference cone C. Though PrePEx and its variants are well-studied, there does not exist a computationally efficient algorithm that can optimally track the existing lower bound (Shukla and Basu, 2024) for arbitrary preference cones. We successfully fill this gap by efficiently solving the minimisation and maximisation problems in the lower bound. First, we derive three structural properties of the lower bound that yield a computationally tractable reduction of the minimisation problem. Then, we deploy a Frank-Wolfe optimiser to accelerate the maximisation problem in the lower bound. Together, these techniques solve the maxmin optimisation problem in O(KL2) time for a bandit instance with K arms and L dimensional reward, which is a significant acceleration over the literature. We further prove that our proposed PrePEx algorithm, FraPPE, asymptotically achieves the optimal sample complexity. Finally, we perform numerical experiments across synthetic and real datasets demonstrating that FraPPE achieves the lowest sample complexities to identify the exact Pareto set among the existing algorithms.

We perform a thorough analysis of the formal and informal statements in the miniF2F benchmark from the perspective of an AI system that is tasked to participate in a math Olympiad consisting of the problems in miniF2F. In such setting, the model has to read and comprehend the problems in natural language, formalize them in Lean language, then proceed with proving the problems, and it will get credit for each problem if the formal proof corresponds to the original informal statement presented to the model. Our evaluation results reveal that the best accuracy of such pipeline can be about 36% using the SoTA models in the literature, considerably lower than the individual SoTA accuracies, 97% and 69% reported in the autoformalization and theorem proving literature. Analyzing the failure modes, we trace back a considerable portion of this drop to discrepancies between the formal and informal statements for more than half of the problems in miniF2F. We proceed with correcting all the errors, discrepancies and simplifications in formal and informal statements, and present the with fully verified formal and informal statements and proofs. Evaluating the full theorem proving pipeline on leads to the best accuracy of 70%, a significant improvement from the 40% on the original miniF2F, yet indicating considerable misalignment between the autoformalization models and theorem provers. Our deep analysis suggests that a higher quality benchmark can help the community better evaluate progress in the field of formal reasoning and also better diagnose the failure and success modes of autoformalization and theorem proving models.