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LILI clustering algorithm: Limit Inferior Leaf Interval Integrated into Causal Forest for Causal Interference

Dong, Yiran, Fan, Di, Gao, Chuanhou

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal forest methods are powerful tools in causal inference. Similar to traditional random forest in machine learning, causal forest independently considers each causal tree. However, this independence consideration increases the likelihood that classification errors in one tree are repeated in others, potentially leading to significant bias in causal e ect estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that establishes connections between causal trees through the Limit Inferior Leaf Interval (LILI) clustering algorithm. LILIs are constructed based on the leaves of all causal trees, emphasizing the similarity of dataset confounders. When two instances with di erent treatments are grouped into the same leaf across a su cient number of causal trees, they are treated as counterfactual outcomes of each other. Through this clustering mechanism, LILI clustering reduces bias present in traditional causal tree methods and enhances the prediction accuracy for the average treatment e ect (ATE). By integrating LILIs into a causal forest, we develop an e cient causal inference method. Moreover, we explore several key properties of LILI by relating it to the concepts of limit inferior and limit superior in the set theory. Theoretical analysis rigorously proves the convergence of the estimated ATE using LILI clustering. Empirically, extensive comparative experiments demonstrate the superior performance of LILI clustering.


'Shakespeare would be writing for games today': Cannes' first video game Lili is a retelling of Macbeth

The Guardian

The Cannes film festival isn't typically associated with video games, but this year it's playing host to an unusual collaboration. Lili is a co-production between the New York-based game studio iNK Stories (creator of 1979 Revolution: Black Friday, about a photojournalist in Iran) and the Royal Shakespeare Company, and it's been turning heads with its eye-catching translocation of Macbeth to modern-day Iran. "It's been such an incredible coup to have it as the first video game experience at Cannes," says iNK Stories co-founder Vassiliki Khonsari. "People have gone in saying, I'm not familiar playing games, so I may just try it out for five minutes. The Cannes festival's Immersive Competition began in 2024, although the lineup doesn't usually feature traditional video games. "VR films and projection mapping is the thrust of it," says iNK Stories' other co-founder, Vassiliki's husband Navid Khonsari. But Lili weaves live-action footage with video game mechanics in a similar way to a game such as Telling Lies or Immortality. Its lead, Zar Amir Ebrahimi, won best actress at Cannes three years ago. Lili focuses on the story of Lady Macbeth, here cast as the ambitious wife of an upwardly mobile officer in the Basij (a paramilitary volunteer militia within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard in Iran). As in the play, she plots a murder to secure her husband's rise. "I think that the narrative of Lady Macbeth is that she's manipulative, and that's exactly what got us interested," says Navid. "The social limitations based on her gender forced her to try to attain whatever leadership role she can," he continues. "If she was a man, she would have been one of the greatest kings that country would have ever experienced, but because she was a woman she had to work within the structure that was there for her.

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Learning Latent Representations to Co-Adapt to Humans

Parekh, Sagar, Losey, Dylan P.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When robots interact with humans in homes, roads, or factories the human's behavior often changes in response to the robot. Non-stationary humans are challenging for robot learners: actions the robot has learned to coordinate with the original human may fail after the human adapts to the robot. In this paper we introduce an algorithmic formalism that enables robots (i.e., ego agents) to co-adapt alongside dynamic humans (i.e., other agents) using only the robot's low-level states, actions, and rewards. A core challenge is that humans not only react to the robot's behavior, but the way in which humans react inevitably changes both over time and between users. To deal with this challenge, our insight is that -- instead of building an exact model of the human -- robots can learn and reason over high-level representations of the human's policy and policy dynamics. Applying this insight we develop RILI: Robustly Influencing Latent Intent. RILI first embeds low-level robot observations into predictions of the human's latent strategy and strategy dynamics. Next, RILI harnesses these predictions to select actions that influence the adaptive human towards advantageous, high reward behaviors over repeated interactions. We demonstrate that -- given RILI's measured performance with users sampled from an underlying distribution -- we can probabilistically bound RILI's expected performance across new humans sampled from the same distribution. Our simulated experiments compare RILI to state-of-the-art representation and reinforcement learning baselines, and show that RILI better learns to coordinate with imperfect, noisy, and time-varying agents. Finally, we conduct two user studies where RILI co-adapts alongside actual humans in a game of tag and a tower-building task. See videos of our user studies here: https://youtu.be/WYGO5amDXbQ


Learning Latent Representations to Influence Multi-Agent Interaction

Xie, Annie, Losey, Dylan P., Tolsma, Ryan, Finn, Chelsea, Sadigh, Dorsa

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Seamlessly interacting with humans or robots is hard because these agents are non-stationary. They update their policy in response to the ego agent's behavior, and the ego agent must anticipate these changes to co-adapt. Inspired by humans, we recognize that robots do not need to explicitly model every low-level action another agent will make; instead, we can capture the latent strategy of other agents through high-level representations. We propose a reinforcement learning-based framework for learning latent representations of an agent's policy, where the ego agent identifies the relationship between its behavior and the other agent's future strategy. The ego agent then leverages these latent dynamics to influence the other agent, purposely guiding them towards policies suitable for co-adaptation. Across several simulated domains and a real-world air hockey game, our approach outperforms the alternatives and learns to influence the other agent.


Make Your Chatbot Smarter by Talking to It

@machinelearnbot

Summary: A major problem with chatbots is that they can only provide information from what's in their knowledge base. Here's a new approach that makes your chatbot smarter with every question it can't answer, making it a self-learning lifelong learner. If you've been keeping up with the explosive growth in chatbots you probably already know that there are two basic architectures: They are relatively simple and fast to build, with decision-tree or waterfall-like logic structures of predefined queries and responses. AI Chatbots use deep learning engines to formulate responses. They do not have rigidly defined structures and are able to learn conversational responses after some initial training.