light curve
Scalable Bayesian Additive Models for Stellar Flare Detection via Amortized Gaussian Process Inference and Hidden Markov Models
Herrera, Rodrigo, Leos-Barajas, Vianey, Eadie, Gwendolyn, Semenova, Elizaveta, Davenport, James
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for Bayesian time-series modeling, yet their cubic computational cost remains a severe barrier for application to long, high-cadence datasets in astronomy. While specialized scalable solvers like Celerite elegantly reduce this scaling to linear time, repeatedly evaluating the exact likelihood during iterative Bayesian sampling is a bottleneck for developing more complex models, like hierarchical or additive models in which Celerite is only one component. To make this inference computationally tractable, we introduce a generative surrogate framework. By utilizing a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to learn a compressed representation of the Celerite prior, we map highly correlated stochastic dependencies into a low-dimensional, isotropic manifold. This transition completely bypasses exact covariance operations, shifting the computational burden to a rapid neural network forward pass. Through an extensive simulation study, we show that the generative surrogate accurately reproduces the structural fidelity of exact physical kernels like Celerite. Finally, we demonstrate embedding our VAE approximation into an additive model that combines Celerite and a hidden Markov model (HMM) for stellar flare detection in time series data of stars. We evaluate the joint VAE+HMM architecture against the exact Celerite+HMM framework on empirical astrophysical time series and demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves significant reductions in computational time, enabling the rigorous, large-scale characterization of stellar flares across massive data archives.
Time Series Analysis in Machine Learning
Pagliaro, Antonio, Anzalone, Anna
Time series analysis is a fundamental component of machine learning, especially in astrophysics and cosmology where temporal data abound. This chapter provides a pedagogical review of time series analysis techniques from a machine learning perspective. We cover the basic concepts of time series (stationarity, autocorrelation, seasonality), classical statistical models (autoregressive, moving average, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state-space models), and modern machine learning approaches. In particular, we discuss how traditional statistical methods lay the groundwork, and then explore machine learning methods for time series, including feature-based regression, tree-based ensemble methods, hidden Markov models, Gaussian processes, and deep learning models (recurrent neural networks, convolutional networks, transformers). Throughout, we illustrate with examples drawn from multiple domains (e.g. astronomy, weather forecasting, finance) to emphasize common principles. The goal is to equip readers with both the theoretical understanding and practical context to apply machine learning techniques for time series analysis in their research.
Magnetic activity of ultracool dwarfs in the LAMOST DR11
Xiang, Yue, Gu, Shenghong, Cao, Dongtao
Ultracool dwarfs consist of lowest-mass stars and brown dwarfs. Their interior is fully convective, different from that of the partly-convective Sun-like stars. Magnetic field generation process beneath the surface of ultracool dwarfs is still poorly understood and controversial. To increase samples of active ultracool dwarfs significantly, we have identified 962 ultracool dwarfs in the latest LAMOST data release, DR11. We also simulate the Chinese Space Station Survey Telescope (CSST) low-resolution slitless spectra by degrading the LAMOST spectra. A semi-supervised machine learning approach with an autoencoder model is built to identify ultracool dwarfs with the simulated CSST spectra, which demonstrates the capability of the CSST all-sky slitless spectroscopic survey on the detection of ultracool dwarfs. Magnetic activity of the ultracool dwarfs is investigated by using the H$ฮฑ$ line emission as a proxy. The rotational periods of 82 ultracool dwarfs are derived based on the Kepler/K2 light curves. We also derive the activity-rotation relation of the ultracool dwarfs, which is saturated around a Rossby number of 0.12.
Classification of Transient Astronomical Object Light Curves Using LSTM Neural Networks
Fernandes, Guilherme Grancho D., Barroca, Marco A., Santos, Mateus dos, Oliveira, Rafael S.
This study presents a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network for classifying transient astronomical object light curves from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC) dataset. The original fourteen object classes were reorganized into five generalized categories (S-Like, Fast, Long, Periodic, and Non-Periodic) to address class imbalance. After preprocessing with padding, temporal rescaling, and flux normalization, a bidirectional LSTM network with masking layers was trained and evaluated on a test set of 19,920 objects. The model achieved strong performance for S-Like and Periodic classes, with ROC area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.95 and 0.99, and Precision-Recall AUC values of 0.98 and 0.89, respectively. However, performance was significantly lower for Fast and Long classes (ROC AUC of 0.68 for Long class), and the model exhibited difficulty distinguishing between Periodic and Non-Periodic objects. Evaluation on partial light curve data (5, 10,and 20 days from detection) revealed substantial performance degradation, with increased misclassification toward the S-Like class. These findings indicate that class imbalance and limited temporal information are primary limitations, suggesting that class balancing strategies and preprocessing techniques focusing on detection moments could improve performance.
WATSON-Net: Vetting, Validation, and Analysis of Transits from Space Observations with Neural Networks
Dรฉvora-Pajares, M., Pozuelos, F. J., Suรกrez, J. C., Gonzรกlez-Penedo, M., Dafonte, C.
Context. As the number of detected transiting exoplanet candidates continues to grow, the need for robust and scalable automated tools to prioritize or validate them has become increasingly critical. Among the most promising solutions, deep learning models offer the ability to interpret complex diagnostic metrics traditionally used in the vetting process. Aims. In this work, we present WATSON-Net, a new open-source neural network classifier and data preparation package designed to compete with current state-of-the-art tools for vetting and validation of transiting exoplanet signals from space-based missions. Methods. Trained on Kepler Q1-Q17 DR25 data using 10-fold cross-validation, WATSON-Net produces ten independent models, each evaluated on dedicated validation and test sets. The ten models are calibrated and prepared to be extensible for TESS data by standardizing the input pipeline, allowing for performance assessment across different space missions. Results. For Kepler targets, WATSON-Net achieves a recall-at-precision of 0.99 (R@P0.99) of 0.903, ranking second, with only the ExoMiner network performing better (R@P0.99 = 0.936). For TESS signals, WATSON-Net emerges as the best-performing non-fine-tuned machine learning classifier, achieving a precision of 0.93 and a recall of 0.76 on a test set comprising confirmed planets and false positives. Both the model and its data preparation tools are publicly available in the dearwatson Python package, fully open-source and integrated into the vetting engine of the SHERLOCK pipeline.
Simulation-Based Pretraining and Domain Adaptation for Astronomical Time Series with Minimal Labeled Data
Gupta, Rithwik, Muthukrishna, Daniel, Audenaert, Jeroen
Astronomical time-series analysis faces a critical limitation: the scarcity of labeled observational data. We present a pre-training approach that leverages simulations, significantly reducing the need for labeled examples from real observations. Our models, trained on simulated data from multiple astronomical surveys (ZTF and LSST), learn generalizable representations that transfer effectively to downstream tasks. Using classifier-based architectures enhanced with contrastive and adversarial objectives, we create domain-agnostic models that demonstrate substantial performance improvements over baseline methods in classification, redshift estimation, and anomaly detection when fine-tuned with minimal real data. Remarkably, our models exhibit effective zero-shot transfer capabilities, achieving comparable performance on future telescope (LSST) simulations when trained solely on existing telescope (ZTF) data. Furthermore, they generalize to very different astronomical phenomena (namely variable stars from NASA's \textit{Kepler} telescope) despite being trained on transient events, demonstrating cross-domain capabilities. Our approach provides a practical solution for building general models when labeled data is scarce, but domain knowledge can be encoded in simulations.
ASTROCO: Self-Supervised Conformer-Style Transformers for Light-Curve Embeddings
Tan, Antony, Protopapas, Pavlos, Cรกdiz-Leyton, Martina, Cabrera-Vives, Guillermo, Donoso-Oliva, Cristobal, Becker, Ignacio
We present AstroCo, a Conformer-style encoder for irregular stellar light curves. By combining attention with depthwise convolutions and gating, AstroCo captures both global dependencies and local features. On MACHO R-band, AstroCo outperforms Astromer v1 and v2, yielding 70 percent and 61 percent lower error respectively and a relative macro-F1 gain of about 7 percent, while producing embeddings that transfer effectively to few-shot classification. These results highlight AstroCo's potential as a strong and label-efficient foundation for time-domain astronomy.
Beyond Spherical geometry: Unraveling complex features of objects orbiting around stars from its transit light curve using deep learning
Bhowmick, Ushasi, Kumaran, Shivam
Characterizing the geometry of an object orbiting around a star from its transit light curve is a powerful tool to uncover various complex phenomena. This problem is inherently ill-posed, since similar or identical light curves can be produced by multiple different shapes. In this study, we investigate the extent to which the features of a shape can be embedded in a transit light curve. We generate a library of two-dimensional random shapes and simulate their transit light curves with light curve simulator, Yuti. Each shape is decomposed into a series of elliptical components expressed in the form of Fourier coefficients that adds increasingly diminishing perturbations to an ideal ellipse. We train deep neural networks to predict these Fourier coefficients directly from simulated light curves. Our results demonstrate that the neural network can successfully reconstruct the low-order ellipses, which describe overall shape, orientation and large-scale perturbations. For higher order ellipses the scale is successfully determined but the inference of eccentricity and orientation is limited, demonstrating the extent of shape information in the light curve. We explore the impact of non-convex shape features in reconstruction, and show its dependence on shape orientation. The level of reconstruction achieved by the neural network underscores the utility of using light curves as a means to extract geometric information from transiting systems.
Learning novel representations of variable sources from multi-modal $\textit{Gaia}$ data via autoencoders
Huijse, P., De Ridder, J., Eyer, L., Rimoldini, L., Holl, B., Chornay, N., Roquette, J., Nienartowicz, K., de Fombelle, G. Jevardat, Fritzewski, D. J., Kemp, A., Vanlaer, V., Vanrespaille, M., Wang, H., Carnerero, M. I., Raiteri, C. M., Marton, G., Madarรกsz, M., Clementini, G., Gavras, P., Aerts, C.
Gaia Data Release 3 (DR3) published for the first time epoch photometry, BP/RP (XP) low-resolution mean spectra, and supervised classification results for millions of variable sources. This extensive dataset offers a unique opportunity to study their variability by combining multiple Gaia data products. In preparation for DR4, we propose and evaluate a machine learning methodology capable of ingesting multiple Gaia data products to achieve an unsupervised classification of stellar and quasar variability. A dataset of 4 million Gaia DR3 sources is used to train three variational autoencoders (VAE), which are artificial neural networks (ANNs) designed for data compression and generation. One VAE is trained on Gaia XP low-resolution spectra, another on a novel approach based on the distribution of magnitude differences in the Gaia G band, and the third on folded Gaia G band light curves. Each Gaia source is compressed into 15 numbers, representing the coordinates in a 15-dimensional latent space generated by combining the outputs of these three models. The learned latent representation produced by the ANN effectively distinguishes between the main variability classes present in Gaia DR3, as demonstrated through both supervised and unsupervised classification analysis of the latent space. The results highlight a strong synergy between light curves and low-resolution spectral data, emphasising the benefits of combining the different Gaia data products. A two-dimensional projection of the latent variables reveals numerous overdensities, most of which strongly correlate with astrophysical properties, showing the potential of this latent space for astrophysical discovery. We show that the properties of our novel latent representation make it highly valuable for variability analysis tasks, including classification, clustering and outlier detection.
Exoplanet Detection Using Machine Learning Models Trained on Synthetic Light Curves
With manual searching processes, the rate at which scientists and astronomers discover exoplanets is slow because of inefficiencies that require an extensive time of laborious inspections. In fact, as of now there have been about only 5,000 confirmed exoplanets since the late 1900s. Recently, machine learning (ML) has proven to be extremely valuable and efficient in various fields, capable of processing massive amounts of data in addition to increasing its accuracy by learning. Though ML models for discovering exoplanets owned by large corporations (e.g. NASA) exist already, they largely depend on complex algorithms and supercomputers. In an effort to reduce such complexities, in this paper, we report the results and potential benefits of various, well-known ML models in the discovery and validation of extrasolar planets. The ML models that are examined in this study include logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest. The dataset on which the models train and predict is acquired from NASA's Kepler space telescope. The initial results show promising scores for each model. However, potential biases and dataset imbalances necessitate the use of data augmentation techniques to further ensure fairer predictions and improved generalization. This study concludes that, in the context of searching for exoplanets, data augmentation techniques significantly improve the recall and precision, while the accuracy varies for each model.