Risk management is a prominent issue in peer-to-peer lending. An investor may naturally reduce his risk exposure by diversifying instead of putting all his money on one loan. In that case, an investor may want to minimize the Value-at-Risk (VaR) or Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of his loan portfolio. We propose a low degree of freedom deep neural network model, DeNN, as well as a high degree of freedom model, DSNN, to tackle the problem. In particular, our models predict not only the default probability of a loan but also the time when it will default. The experiments demonstrate that both models can significantly reduce the portfolio VaRs at different confidence levels, compared to benchmarks. More interestingly, the low degree of freedom model, DeNN, outperforms DSNN in most scenarios.

As financial institutions increasingly rely on machine learning models to automate lending decisions, concerns about algorithmic fairness have risen. This paper explores the tradeoff between enforcing fairness constraints (such as demographic parity or equal opportunity) and maximizing lender profitability. Through simulations on synthetic data that reflects real-world lending patterns, we quantify how different fairness interventions impact profit margins and default rates. Our results demonstrate that equal opportunity constraints typically impose lower profit costs than demographic parity, but surprisingly, removing protected attributes from the model (fairness through unawareness) outperforms explicit fairness interventions in both fairness and profitability metrics. We further identify the specific economic conditions under which fair lending becomes profitable and analyze the feature-specific drivers of unfairness. These findings offer practical guidance for designing lending algorithms that balance ethical considerations with business objectives.

Despite the tremendous advances achieved over the past years by deep learning techniques, the latest risk prediction models for industrial applications still rely on highly handtuned stage-wised statistical learning tools, such as gradient boosting and random forest methods. Different from images or languages, real-world financial data are high-dimensional, sparse, noisy and extremely imbalanced, which makes deep neural network models particularly challenging to train and fragile in practice. In this work, we propose DeRisk, an effective deep learning risk prediction framework for credit risk prediction on real-world financial data. DeRisk is the first deep risk prediction model that outperforms statistical learning approaches deployed in our company's production system. We also perform extensive ablation studies on our method to present the most critical factors for the empirical success of DeRisk.

Sequential fundraising in two sided online platforms enable peer to peer lending by sequentially bringing potential contributors, each of whose decisions impact other contributors in the market. However, understanding the dynamics of sequential contributions in online platforms for peer lending has been an open ended research question. The centralized investment mechanism in these platforms makes it difficult to understand the implicit competition that borrowers face from a single lender at any point in time. Matching markets are a model of pairing agents where the preferences of agents from both sides in terms of their preferred pairing for transactions can allow to decentralize the market. We study investment designs in two sided platforms using matching markets when the investors or lenders also face restrictions on the investments based on borrower preferences. This situation creates an implicit competition among the lenders in addition to the existing borrower competition, especially when the lenders are uncertain about their standing in the market and thereby the probability of their investments being accepted or the borrower loan requests for projects reaching the reserve price. We devise a technique based on sequential decision making that allows the lenders to adjust their choices based on the dynamics of uncertainty from competition over time. We simulate two sided market matchings in a sequential decision framework and show the dynamics of the lender regret amassed compared to the optimal borrower-lender matching and find that the lender regret depends on the initial preferences set by the lenders which could affect their learning over decision making steps.

Motivated by recent applications of sequential decision making in matching markets, in this paper we attempt at formulating and abstracting market designs for P2P lending. We describe a paradigm to set the stage for how peer to peer investments can be conceived from a matching market perspective, especially when both borrower and lender preferences are respected. We model these specialized markets as an optimization problem and consider different utilities for agents on both sides of the market while also understanding the impact of equitable allocations to borrowers. We devise a technique based on sequential decision making that allow the lenders to adjust their choices based on the dynamics of uncertainty from competition over time and that also impacts the rewards in return for their investments. Using simulated experiments we show the dynamics of the regret based on the optimal borrower-lender matching and find that the lender regret depends on the initial preferences set by the lenders which could affect their learning over decision making steps.

The increasing usage of new data sources and machine learning (ML) technology in credit modeling raises concerns with regards to potentially unfair decision-making that rely on protected characteristics (e.g., race, sex, age) or other socio-economic and demographic data. The authors demonstrate the impact of such algorithmic bias in the microfinance context. Difficulties in assessing credit are disproportionately experienced among vulnerable groups, however, very little is known about inequities in credit allocation between groups defined, not only by single, but by multiple and intersecting social categories. Drawing from the intersectionality paradigm, the study examines intersectional horizontal inequities in credit access by gender, age, marital status, single parent status and number of children. This paper utilizes data from the Spanish microfinance market as its context to demonstrate how pluralistic realities and intersectional identities can shape patterns of credit allocation when using automated decision-making systems. With ML technology being oblivious to societal good or bad, we find that a more thorough examination of intersectionality can enhance the algorithmic fairness lens to more authentically empower action for equitable outcomes and present a fairer path forward. We demonstrate that while on a high-level, fairness may exist superficially, unfairness can exacerbate at lower levels given combinatorial effects; in other words, the core fairness problem may be more complicated than current literature demonstrates. We find that in addition to legally protected characteristics, sensitive attributes such as single parent status and number of children can result in imbalanced harm. We discuss the implications of these findings for the financial services industry.

Alternative credit options can mean the difference between financial well-being and financial hardship for many borrowers. Fintech advancements such as buy-now-pay-later, plus the combination of credit models driven by artificial intelligence and machine learning, may pave the way for a fairer and more inclusive future of credit. But lessons from the financial crisis ring clear: When only one part of the market is required to comply with regulations, the other will compete by offering disadvantageous and risky products. Regulators are now faced with how to advance a regulatory framework that encourages innovation while protecting consumers. Buy now/pay later options spurred marked industry growth, as well as artificial intelligence and machine learning advances during the pandemic, with implications and improved assistance for underserved communities.

Artificial intelligence can be a powerful tool for analyzing massive amounts of data, finding connections and correlations that humans can't. However, unlike a person solving a math problem, many AI models can't easily explain the steps they took to reach their final answers. They are what's known in computer science as black boxes: You can see what goes in and what comes out; what happens in between is a mystery. The black-box problem is baked into many machine learning models, explains Laura Blattner, an assistant professor of finance at Stanford GSB. "The power of the technology is its ability to reflect the complexity in the world," she says.

Credit is an essential component of financial wellbeing in America, and unequal access to it is a large factor in the economic disparities between demographic groups that exist today. Today, machine learning algorithms, sometimes trained on alternative data, are increasingly being used to determine access to credit, yet research has shown that machine learning can encode many different versions of "unfairness," thus raising the concern that banks and other financial institutions could -- potentially unwittingly -- engage in illegal discrimination through the use of this technology. In the US, there are laws in place to make sure discrimination does not happen in lending and agencies charged with enforcing them. However, conversations around fair credit models in computer science and in policy are often misaligned: fair machine learning research often lacks legal and practical considerations specific to existing fair lending policy, and regulators have yet to issue new guidance on how, if at all, credit risk models should be utilizing practices and techniques from the research community. This paper aims to better align these sides of the conversation. We describe the current state of credit discrimination regulation in the United States, contextualize results from fair ML research to identify the specific fairness concerns raised by the use of machine learning in lending, and discuss regulatory opportunities to address these concerns.

In Asia Pacific (APAC), artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are increasingly being deployed in credit and risk functions for improved credit assessment, credit scoring and fraud detection. Moving forward, AI will no longer be an option for banks and financial institutions but rather a necessity, enabling them to meet rising customer expectations, tap new business opportunities, and address the rapidly evolving fraud landscape, data specialists and top finance executives said in a recent webinar. During Fintech Fireside Asia's latest panel discussion, C-level executives representing Union Bank of the Philippines, credit bureau TransUnion, lending startup Funding Societies and data solutions provider Mobilewalla discussed the state of AI adoption across APAC's financial ecosystem, delving into how predictive modeling and ML are now being used in the lending process. For Anindya Datta, Founder, CEO, Chairman, Mobilewalla, AI offers an opportunity to deliver innovative business models that can leapfrog traditional solutions and reach the unbanked, a potential that's particularly relevant in Southeast Asia considering that more than 70% of the region's adult population remain either unbanked or underbanked today. "A major part of decision making in lending is around figuring out how likely a person is going to pay back and whether they will pay back in time. Why it's so interesting In emerging markets, especially in APAC, is because the credit footprint is small [and a lot of people don't] have credit scores," Anindya said.