Consider betting against a sequence of data in $[0,1]$, where one is allowed to make any bet that is fair if the data have a conditional mean $m_0 \in (0,1)$. Cover's universal portfolio algorithm delivers a worst-case regret of $O(\ln n)$ compared to the best constant bet in hindsight, and this bound is unimprovable against adversarially generated data. In this work, we present a novel mixture betting strategy that combines insights from Robbins and Cover, and exhibits a different behavior: it eventually produces a regret of $O(\ln \ln n)$ on \emph{almost} all paths (a measure-one set of paths if each conditional mean equals $m_0$ and intrinsic variance increases to $\infty$), but has an $O(\log n)$ regret on the complement (a measure zero set of paths). Our paper appears to be the first to point out the value in hedging two very different strategies to achieve a best-of-both-worlds adaptivity to stochastic data and protection against adversarial data. We contrast our results to those in~\cite{agrawal2025regret} for a sub-Gaussian mixture on unbounded data: their worst-case regret has to be unbounded, but a similar hedging delivers both an optimal betting growth-rate and an almost sure $\ln\ln n$ regret on stochastic data. Finally, our strategy witnesses a sharp game-theoretic upper law of the iterated logarithm, analogous to~\cite{shafer2005probability}.

We present a complete theoretical characterization of Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a principled framework for aggregating multiple heterogeneous evidence items in probabilistic prediction tasks. Multi-evidence reasoning arises pervasively in high-stakes domains including healthcare diagnosis, financial risk assessment, legal case analysis, and regulatory compliance, yet existing approaches either lack formal guarantees or fail to handle multi-evidence scenarios architecturally. LPF encodes each evidence item into a Gaussian latent posterior via a variational autoencoder, converting posteriors to soft factors through Monte Carlo marginalization, and aggregating factors via exact Sum-Product Network inference (LPF-SPN) or a learned neural aggregator (LPF-Learned). We prove seven formal guarantees spanning the key desiderata for trustworthy AI: Calibration Preservation (ECE <= epsilon + C/sqrt(K_eff)); Monte Carlo Error decaying as O(1/sqrt(M)); a non-vacuous PAC-Bayes bound with train-test gap of 0.0085 at N=4200; operation within 1.12x of the information-theoretic lower bound; graceful degradation as O(epsilon*delta*sqrt(K)) under corruption, maintaining 88% performance with half of evidence adversarially replaced; O(1/sqrt(K)) calibration decay with R^2=0.849; and exact epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition with error below 0.002%. All theorems are empirically validated on controlled datasets spanning up to 4,200 training examples. Our theoretical framework establishes LPF as a foundation for trustworthy multi-evidence AI in safety-critical applications.

Score-based generative models (SGMs) aim at generating samples from a target distribution by approximating the reverse-time dynamics of a stochastic differential equation. Despite their strong empirical performance, classical samplers initialized from a Gaussian distribution require a long time horizon noising typically inducing a large number of discretization steps and high computational cost. In this work, we present a Kullback-Leibler convergence analysis of Variance Exploding diffusion samplers that highlights the critical role of the backward process initialization. Based on this result, we propose a theoretically grounded sampling strategy that learns the reverse-time initialization, directly minimizing the initialization error. The resulting procedure is independent of the specific score training procedure, network architecture, and discretization scheme. Experiments on toy distributions and benchmark datasets demonstrate competitive or improved generative quality while using significantly fewer sampling steps.

Data privacy is important in the AI era, and differential privacy (DP) is one of the golden solutions. However, DP is typically applicable only if data have a bounded underlying distribution. We address this limitation by leveraging second-moment information from a small amount of public data. We propose Public-moment-guided Truncation (PMT), which transforms private data using the public second-moment matrix and applies a principled truncation whose radius depends only on non-private quantities: data dimension and sample size. This transformation yields a well-conditioned second-moment matrix, enabling its inversion with a significantly strengthened ability to resist the DP noise. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of PMT by using penalized and generalized linear regressions. Specifically, we design new loss functions and algorithms, ensuring that solutions in the transformed space can be mapped back to the original domain. We have established improvements in the models' DP estimation through theoretical error bounds, robustness guarantees, and convergence results, attributing the gains to the conditioning effect of PMT. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets confirm that PMT substantially improves the accuracy and stability of DP models.

Linear contextual bandits represent a fundamental class of models with numerous real-world applications, and it is critical to developing algorithms that can effectively manage noise with unknown variance, ensuring provable guarantees for both worst-case constant-variance noise and deterministic reward scenarios.