Abstract: This paper aims to explore two compet ing data science meth odologies to attempt answer ing th e question, " Which issues contributed most to voters' choice in the 2024 presidential election? " The methodologies involve novel empirical evidence driven by artificial intelligence (AI) techniques . By using two distinct methods based on natural language processing and clustering analysis to mine over eight thousand user comments on election - related YouTube videos from one right leaning journal, Wall Street Journal, and one left leaning journal, New York Times, during pre - election week, we quantify the frequency of selected issue areas among user comments to infer which issues were most salient to potential voters in the seven days preceding the November 5th election. Empirically, we primarily demonstrate that immigration and democracy were the most frequently and consistently invoked issues in user comments on the analyzed YouTube videos, followed by the issue of identity politics, while inflation was significantly less frequently referenced. These results corroborate certain findings of post - election surveys but also refute the supposed importance of inflation as an election issue. This indicate s that variations on opinion mining, with their analysis of raw user data online, ca n be more revealing than polling and surveys for analyzing election outcomes. Keywords: artificial intelligence; opinion mining; clustering; vot e choice; cleavages 1. Introduction The Democrats lost both houses of Congress and the Presidency to Republicans in the 2024 election, with former president Donald Trump winning all seven swing states and the national popular vote, despite most pre - election polls giving Vice President Kamala Harris and President Trump a roughly equal chance of winning . Most post - election punditry and analysis in the legacy press and alternative media has attributed the Democrats' large loss to two main issues - inflation [59] and immigration [30] However, a growing contingent of analysts has also attributed the election outcome to the Democratic party's association with cultural issues purportedly distant from the median voter's preferences, such as th ose alternatively aggregated under the concept of "identity" or " woke " politics [54, 56] . To this point, three post - election studies illustrate how voters associated Democrats with left - of - center ideas that were ostensibly distant from most voters' priorities. S urvey research from the think tank Third Way demonstrates that Democrats, and thus Kamala Harris, were largely perceived as "too liberal" [15], while a study from More In Common polling over 5, 000 Americans concluded that while inflation was the top concern for every major demographic group across both parties, Americans misperceived LGBT/transgender policies as the top policy priority for Democrats [37] .

This paper introduces the largest and most comprehensive dataset of US presidential campaign television advertisements, available in digital format. The dataset also includes machine-searchable transcripts and high-quality summaries designed to facilitate a variety of academic research. To date, there has been great interest in collecting and analyzing US presidential campaign advertisements, but the need for manual procurement and annotation led many to rely on smaller subsets. We design a large-scale parallelized, AI-based analysis pipeline that automates the laborious process of preparing, transcribing, and summarizing videos. We then apply this methodology to the 9,707 presidential ads from the Julian P. Kanter Political Commercial Archive. We conduct extensive human evaluations to show that these transcripts and summaries match the quality of manually generated alternatives. We illustrate the value of this data by including an application that tracks the genesis and evolution of current focal issue areas over seven decades of presidential elections. Our analysis pipeline and codebase also show how to use LLM-based tools to obtain high-quality summaries for other video datasets.

Social media enables activists to directly communicate with the public and provides a space for movement leaders, participants, bystanders, and opponents to collectively construct and contest narratives. Focusing on Twitter messages from social movements surrounding three issues in 2018-2019 (guns, immigration, and LGBTQ rights), we create a codebook, annotated dataset, and computational models to detect diagnostic (problem identification and attribution), prognostic (proposed solutions and tactics), and motivational (calls to action) framing strategies. We conduct an in-depth unsupervised linguistic analysis of each framing strategy, and uncover cross-movement similarities in associations between framing and linguistic features such as pronouns and deontic modal verbs. Finally, we compare framing strategies across issues and other social, cultural, and interactional contexts. For example, we show that diagnostic framing is more common in replies than original broadcast posts, and that social movement organizations focus much more on prognostic and motivational framing than journalists and ordinary citizens.