In 2024, superstorm Gannon generated auroras-and wreaked havoc on this radiation-blocking layer. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. Last year, the most violent geomagnetic storm to strike Earth in over two decades did more than disrupt GPS systems and internet connections. According to a study published today in the journal, superstorm Gannon also squeezed the planet's protective layer of ionized particles to one-fifth its normal size. Geomagnetic storms aren't rare occurrences, but most of them remain relatively benign.

The ionosphere is a critical component of near-Earth space, shaping GNSS accuracy, high-frequency communications, and aviation operations. For these reasons, accurate forecasting and modeling of ionospheric variability has become increasingly relevant. To address this gap, we present IonCast, a suite of deep learning models that include a GraphCast-inspired model tailored for ionospheric dynamics. IonCast leverages spatiotemporal learning to forecast global Total Electron Content (TEC), integrating diverse physical drivers and observational datasets. Validating on held-out storm-time and quiet conditions highlights improved skill compared to persistence. By unifying heterogeneous data with scalable graph-based spatiotemporal learning, IonCast demonstrates how machine learning can augment physical understanding of ionospheric variability and advance operational space weather resilience.

The ionosphere critically influences Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), satellite communications, and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operations, yet accurate prediction of its variability remains challenging due to nonlinear couplings between solar, geomagnetic, and thermospheric drivers. Total Electron Content (TEC), a key ionospheric parameter, is derived from GNSS observations, but its reliable forecasting is limited by the sparse nature of global measurements and the limited accuracy of empirical models, especially during strong space weather conditions. In this work, we present a machine learning framework for ionospheric TEC forecasting that leverages Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT) to predict sparse ionosphere data. Our approach accommodates heterogeneous input sources, including solar irradiance, geomagnetic indices, and GNSS-derived vertical TEC, and applies preprocessing and temporal alignment strategies. Experiments spanning 2010-2025 demonstrate that the model achieves robust predictions up to 24 hours ahead, with root mean square errors as low as 3.33 TECU. Results highlight that solar EUV irradiance provides the strongest predictive signals. Beyond forecasting accuracy, the framework offers interpretability through attention-based analysis, supporting both operational applications and scientific discovery. To encourage reproducibility and community-driven development, we release the full implementation as the open-source toolkit \texttt{ionopy}.

We present Compressible Atmospheric Model-Network (CAM-NET), an AI model designed to predict neutral atmospheric variables from the Earth's surface to the ionosphere with high accuracy and computational efficiency. Accurate modeling of the entire atmosphere is critical for understanding the upward propagation of gravity waves, which influence upper-atmospheric dynamics and coupling across atmospheric layers. CAM-NET leverages the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) to capture global-scale atmospheric dynamics while preserving the Earth's spherical structure. Trained on a decade of datasets from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension (WACCM-X), CAM-NET demonstrates accuracy comparable to WACCM-X while achieving a speedup of over 1000x in inference time, can provide one year simulation within a few minutes once trained. The model effectively predicts key atmospheric parameters, including zonal and meridional winds, temperature, and time rate of pressure. Inspired by traditional modeling approaches that use external couplers to simulate tracer transport, CAM-NET introduces a modular architecture that explicitly separates tracer prediction from core dynamics. The core backbone of CAM-NET focuses on forecasting primary physical variables (e.g., temperature, wind velocity), while tracer variables are predicted through a lightweight, fine-tuned model. This design allows for efficient adaptation to specific tracer scenarios with minimal computational cost, avoiding the need to retrain the entire model. We have validated this approach on the $O^2$ tracer, demonstrating strong performance and generalization capabilities.

Imbalanced data sets are a typical problem encountered practically in several applications (He and Garcia, 2009), such as fraud detection (Hassan and Abraham, 2016), medical diagnosis (Khalilia et al., 2011) and even churn detection (Nguyen and Duong, 2021). In presence of imbalanced data sets, most machine learning algorithms have a tendency to predict the majority class, therefore leading to biased predictions. Several strategies have been developed in order to handle this issue, as explained by Krawczyk (2016) and Ramyachitra and Manikandan (2014). All of these strategies can be split into two categories: the model-level approaches and the data-level approaches. Model-level approaches deal with this problem by acting directly on machine learning algorithms.

In this study we present AI Prediction of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (APE), a machine learning model that can accurately predict the Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI) on the Swarm spacecraft. IBI is a correlation ($R^2$) between perturbations in plasma density and the magnetic field, whose source can be Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs have been studied for a number of years, but their day-to-day variability has made predicting them a considerable challenge. We build an ensemble machine learning model to predict IBI. We use data from 2014-22 at a resolution of 1sec, and transform it from a time-series into a 6-dimensional space with a corresponding EPB $R^2$ (0-1) acting as the label. APE performs well across all metrics, exhibiting a skill, association and root mean squared error score of 0.96, 0.98 and 0.08 respectively. The model performs best post-sunset, in the American/Atlantic sector, around the equinoxes, and when solar activity is high. This is promising because EPBs are most likely to occur during these periods. Shapley values reveal that F10.7 is the most important feature in driving the predictions, whereas latitude is the least. The analysis also examines the relationship between the features, which reveals new insights into EPB climatology. Finally, the selection of the features means that APE could be expanded to forecasting EPBs following additional investigations into their onset.

Linear and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (LDA and QDA) are well-known classical methods but can heavily suffer from non-Gaussian distributions and/or contaminated datasets, mainly because of the underlying Gaussian assumption that is not robust. This paper studies the robustness to scale changes in the data of a new discriminant analysis technique where each data point is drawn by its own arbitrary Elliptically Symmetrical (ES) distribution and its own arbitrary scale parameter. Such a model allows for possibly very heterogeneous, independent but non-identically distributed samples. The new decision rule derived is simple, fast and robust to scale changes in the data compared to others state-of-the-art methods.

We propose the use of U-statistics to reduce variance for gradient estimation in importance-weighted variational inference. The key observation is that, given a base gradient estimator that requires $m > 1$ samples and a total of $n > m$ samples to be used for estimation, lower variance is achieved by averaging the base estimator on overlapping batches of size $m$ than disjoint batches, as currently done. We use classical U-statistic theory to analyze the variance reduction, and propose novel approximations with theoretical guarantees to ensure computational efficiency. We find empirically that U-statistic variance reduction can lead to modest to significant improvements in inference performance on a range of models, with little computational cost.

Outlier detection refers to the identification of data points that deviate from a general data distribution. Existing unsupervised approaches often suffer from high computational cost, complex hyperparameter tuning, and limited interpretability, especially when working with large, high-dimensional datasets. To address these issues, we present a simple yet effective algorithm called ECOD (Empirical-Cumulative-distribution-based Outlier Detection), which is inspired by the fact that outliers are often the "rare events" that appear in the tails of a distribution. In a nutshell, ECOD first estimates the underlying distribution of the input data in a nonparametric fashion by computing the empirical cumulative distribution per dimension of the data. ECOD then uses these empirical distributions to estimate tail probabilities per dimension for each data point. Finally, ECOD computes an outlier score of each data point by aggregating estimated tail probabilities across dimensions. Our contributions are as follows: (1) we propose a novel outlier detection method called ECOD, which is both parameter-free and easy to interpret; (2) we perform extensive experiments on 30 benchmark datasets, where we find that ECOD outperforms 11 state-of-the-art baselines in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and scalability; and (3) we release an easy-to-use and scalable (with distributed support) Python implementation for accessibility and reproducibility.

The estimation of covariance matrices of multiple classes with limited training data is a difficult problem. The sample covariance matrix (SCM) is known to perform poorly when the number of variables is large compared to the available number of samples. In order to reduce the mean squared error (MSE) of the SCM, regularized (shrinkage) SCM estimators are often used. In this work, we consider regularized SCM (RSCM) estimators for multiclass problems that couple together two different target matrices for regularization: the pooled (average) SCM of the classes and the scaled identity matrix. Regularization toward the pooled SCM is beneficial when the population covariances are similar, whereas regularization toward the identity matrix guarantees that the estimators are positive definite. We derive the MSE optimal tuning parameters for the estimators as well as propose a method for their estimation under the assumption that the class populations follow (unspecified) elliptical distributions with finite fourth-order moments. The MSE performance of the proposed coupled RSCMs are evaluated with simulations and in a regularized discriminant analysis (RDA) classification set-up on real data. The results based on three different real data sets indicate comparable performance to cross-validation but with a significant speed-up in computation time.