Innovative research into the gene-editing tool targets influenza's ability to replicate--stopping it in its tracks. As he addressed an audience of virologists from China, Australia, and Singapore at October's Pandemic Research Alliance Symposium, Wei Zhao introduced an eye-catching idea. The gene-editing technology Crispr is best known for delivering groundbreaking new therapies for rare diseases, tweaking or knocking out rogue genes in conditions ranging from sickle cell disease to hemophilia . But Zhao and his colleagues at Melbourne's Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity have envisioned a new application. They believe Crispr could be tailored to create a next-generation treatment for influenza, whether that's the seasonal strains which plague both the northern and southern hemispheres on an annual basis, or the worrisome new variants in birds and other wildlife that might trigger the next pandemic.

Community science observational datasets are useful in epidemiology and ecology for modeling species distributions, but the heterogeneous nature of the data presents significant challenges for standardization, data quality assurance and control, and workflow management. In this paper, we present a data workflow for cleaning and harmonizing multiple community science datasets, which we implement in a case study using eBird, iNaturalist, GBIF, and other datasets to model the impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza in populations of birds in the subantarctic. We predict population sizes for several species where the demographics are not known, and we present novel estimates for potential mortality rates from HPAI for those species, based on a novel aggregated dataset of mortality rates in the subantarctic.

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) evolve antigenically at a pace that requires frequent vaccine updates, yet the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays used to quantify antigenicity are labor-intensive and unscalable. As a result, genomic data vastly outpace available phenotypic labels, limiting the effectiveness of traditional supervised models. We hypothesize that combining pre-trained Protein Language Models (PLMs) with Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) can retain high predictive accuracy even when labeled data are scarce. We evaluated two SSL strategies, Self-training and Label Spreading, against fully supervised baselines using four PLM-derived embeddings (ESM-2, ProtVec, ProtT5, ProtBert) applied to haemagglutinin (HA) sequences. A nested cross-validation framework simulated low-label regimes (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% label availability) across four IAV subtypes (H1N1, H3N2, H5N1, H9N2). SSL consistently improved performance under label scarcity. Self-training with ProtVec produced the largest relative gains, showing that SSL can compensate for lower-resolution representations. ESM-2 remained highly robust, achieving F1 scores above 0.82 with only 25% labeled data, indicating that its embeddings capture key antigenic determinants. While H1N1 and H9N2 were predicted with high accuracy, the hypervariable H3N2 subtype remained challenging, although SSL mitigated the performance decline. These findings demonstrate that integrating PLMs with SSL can address the antigenicity labeling bottleneck and enable more effective use of unlabeled surveillance sequences, supporting rapid variant prioritization and timely vaccine strain selection.

Open-weight bio-foundation models present a dual-use dilemma. While holding great promise for accelerating scientific research and drug development, they could also enable bad actors to develop more deadly bioweapons. To mitigate the risk posed by these models, current approaches focus on filtering biohazardous data during pre-training. However, the effectiveness of such an approach remains unclear, particularly against determined actors who might fine-tune these models for malicious use. To address this gap, we propose BioRiskEval, a framework to evaluate the robustness of procedures that are intended to reduce the dual-use capabilities of bio-foundation models. BioRiskEval assesses models' virus understanding through three lenses, including sequence modeling, mutational effects prediction, and virulence prediction. Our results show that current filtering practices may not be particularly effective: Excluded knowledge can be rapidly recovered in some cases via fine-tuning, and exhibits broader generalizability in sequence modeling. Furthermore, dual-use signals may already reside in the pretrained representations, and can be elicited via simple linear probing. These findings highlight the challenges of data filtering as a standalone procedure, underscoring the need for further research into robust safety and security strategies for open-weight bio-foundation models.

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored a critical need for intervention strategies that balance disease containment with socioeconomic stability. We approach this challenge by designing a framework for modeling and evaluating disease-spread prevention strategies. Our framework leverages multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) - a formulation necessitated by competing objectives - combined with a new stochastic differential equation (SDE) pandemic simulator, calibrated and validated against global COVID-19 data. Our simulator reproduces national-scale pandemic dynamics with orders of magnitude higher fidelity than other models commonly used in reinforcement learning (RL) approaches to pandemic intervention. Training a Pareto-Conditioned Network (PCN) agent on this simulator, we illustrate the direct policy trade-offs between epidemiological control and economic stability for COVID-19. Furthermore, we demonstrate the framework's generality by extending it to pathogens with different epidemiological profiles, such as polio and influenza, and show how these profiles lead the agent to discover fundamentally different intervention policies. To ground our work in contemporary policymaking challenges, we apply the model to measles outbreaks, quantifying how a modest 5% drop in vaccination coverage necessitates significantly more stringent and costly interventions to curb disease spread. This work provides a robust and adaptable framework to support transparent, evidence-based policymaking for mitigating public health crises.

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) represent one of the most prevalent FDA-approved modalities for treating autoimmune diseases, infectious diseases, and cancers. However, discovery and development of therapeutic antibodies remains a time-consuming and expensive process. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have shown significant promise in revolutionizing antibody discovery and optimization. In particular, models that predict antibody biological activity enable in-silico evaluation of binding and functional properties; such models can prioritize antibodies with the highest likelihoods of success in costly and time-intensive laboratory testing procedures. We here explore an AI model for predicting the binding and receptor blocking activity of antibodies against influenza A hemagglutinin (HA) antigens. Our present model is developed with the MAMMAL framework for biologics discovery to predict antibody-antigen interactions using only sequence information. To evaluate the model's performance, we tested it under various data split conditions to mimic real-world scenarios. Our models achieved an AUROC $\geq$ 0.91 for predicting the activity of existing antibodies against seen HAs and an AUROC of 0.9 for unseen HAs. For novel antibody activity prediction, the AUROC was 0.73, which further declined to 0.63-0.66 under stringent constraints on similarity to existing antibodies. These results demonstrate the potential of AI foundation models to transform antibody design by reducing dependence on extensive laboratory testing and enabling more efficient prioritization of antibody candidates. Moreover, our findings emphasize the critical importance of diverse and comprehensive antibody datasets to improve the generalization of prediction models, particularly for novel antibody development.

Despite having triggered devastating pandemics in the past, our ability to quantitatively assess the emergence potential of individual strains of animal influenza viruses remains limited. This study introduces Emergenet, a tool to infer a digital twin of sequence evolution to chart how new variants might emerge in the wild. Our predictions based on Emergenets built only using 220,151 Hemagglutinnin (HA) sequences consistently outperform WHO seasonal vaccine recommendations for H1N1/H3N2 subtypes over two decades (average match-improvement: 3.73 AAs, 28.40\%), and are at par with state-of-the-art approaches that use more detailed phenotypic annotations. Finally, our generative models are used to scalably calculate the current odds of emergence of animal strains not yet in human circulation, which strongly correlates with CDC's expert-assessed Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) scores (Pearson's $r = 0.721, p = 10^{-4}$). A minimum five orders of magnitude speedup over CDC's assessment (seconds vs months) then enabled us to analyze 6,354 animal strains collected post-2020 to identify 35 strains with high emergence scores ($> 7.7$). The Emergenet framework opens the door to preemptive pandemic mitigation through targeted inoculation of animal hosts before the first human infection.

In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by incorporating the influence of exogenous variables (such as environmental conditions and strain-specific characteristics). We propose an hybrid model that blends a data-driven layer with a physics-based one. The data-driven layer is based on a neural ordinary differential equation that learns the dynamics of the transmission rate, conditioned on the meteorological data and wave-specific latent parameters. The physics-based layer, instead, consists of a standard SEIR compartmental model, wherein the transmission rate represents an input. The learning strategy follows an end-to-end approach: the loss function quantifies the mismatch between the actual numbers of infections and its numerical prediction obtained from the SEIR model incorporating as an input the transmission rate predicted by the neural ordinary differential equation. We validate this original approach using both a synthetic test case and a realistic test case based on meteorological data (temperature and humidity) and influenza data from Italy between 2010 and 2020. In both scenarios, we achieve low generalization error on the test set and observe strong alignment between the reconstructed model and established findings on the influence of meteorological factors on epidemic spread. Finally, we implement a data assimilation strategy to adapt the neural equation to the specific characteristics of an epidemic wave under investigation, and we conduct sensitivity tests on the network hyperparameters.

Influenza viruses mutate rapidly and can pose a threat to public health, especially to those in vulnerable groups. Throughout history, influenza A viruses have caused pandemics between different species. It is important to identify the origin of a virus in order to prevent the spread of an outbreak. Recently, there has been increasing interest in using machine learning algorithms to provide fast and accurate predictions for viral sequences. In this study, real testing data sets and a variety of evaluation metrics were used to evaluate machine learning algorithms at different taxonomic levels. As hemagglutinin is the major protein in the immune response, only hemagglutinin sequences were used and represented by position-specific scoring matrix and word embedding. The results suggest that the 5-grams-transformer neural network is the most effective algorithm for predicting viral sequence origins, with approximately 99.54% AUCPR, 98.01% F1 score and 96.60% MCC at a higher classification level, and approximately 94.74% AUCPR, 87.41% F1 score and 80.79% MCC at a lower classification level.

Influenza poses a significant threat to public health, particularly among the elderly, young children, and people with underlying dis-eases. The manifestation of severe conditions, such as pneumonia, highlights the importance of preventing the spread of influenza. An accurate and cost-effective prediction of the host and antigenic sub-types of influenza A viruses is essential to addressing this issue, particularly in resource-constrained regions. In this study, we propose a multi-channel neural network model to predict the host and antigenic subtypes of influenza A viruses from hemagglutinin and neuraminidase protein sequences. Our model was trained on a comprehensive data set of complete protein sequences and evaluated on various test data sets of complete and incomplete sequences. The results demonstrate the potential and practicality of using multi-channel neural networks in predicting the host and antigenic subtypes of influenza A viruses from both full and partial protein sequences.