increment
- South America > Chile > Santiago Metropolitan Region > Santiago Province > Santiago (0.04)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
Fast Estimation of Causal Interactions using Wold Processes
Flavio Figueiredo, Guilherme Resende Borges, Pedro O.S. Vaz de Melo, Renato Assunção
Recently, several fields used networked point processes to understand complex systems such as spiking biological neurons [36],social networks[8,42]geo-sensor networks[22],financial agents inmarkets[37],television records [48]and patient visits [11]. One ofthemain objectivesinthese analyses istouncoverthe causal relationships among the entities ofthe system, ortheinteraction structure among the nodes, which is also called thelatent network structure.
- North America > United States > Montana (0.04)
- North America > United States > California > Santa Clara County > Palo Alto (0.04)
- North America > Canada (0.04)
- North America > United States (0.04)
- North America > Canada (0.04)
- Asia > Middle East > Jordan (0.04)
- Europe > France > Occitanie > Haute-Garonne > Toulouse (0.04)
- Europe > Switzerland > Zürich > Zürich (0.14)
- Europe > Switzerland > Basel-City > Basel (0.04)
- Europe > Norway > Eastern Norway > Oslo (0.04)
- (3 more...)
Prediction Markets as Bayesian Inverse Problems: Uncertainty Quantification, Identifiability, and Information Gain from Price-Volume Histories under Latent Types
Madrigal-Cianci, Juan Pablo, Maya, Camilo Monsalve, Breakey, Lachlan
Prediction markets are often described as mechanisms that ``aggregate information'' into prices, yet the mapping from dispersed private information to observed market histories is typically noisy, endogenous, and shaped by heterogeneous and strategic participation. This paper formulates prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems in which the unknown event outcome \(Y\in\{0,1\}\) is inferred from an observed history of market-implied probabilities and traded volumes. We introduce a mechanism-agnostic observation model in log-odds space in which price increments conditional on volume arise from a latent mixture of trader types. The resulting likelihood class encompasses informed and uninformed trading, heavy-tailed microstructure noise, and adversarial or manipulative flow, while requiring only price and volume as observables. Within this framework we define posterior uncertainty quantification for \(Y\), provide identifiability and well-posedness criteria in terms of Kullback--Leibler separation between outcome-conditional increment laws, and derive posterior concentration statements and finite-sample error bounds under general regularity assumptions. We further study stability of posterior odds to perturbations of the observed price--volume path and define realized and expected information gain via the posterior-vs-prior KL divergence and mutual information. The inverse-problem formulation yields explicit diagnostics for regimes in which market histories are informative and stable versus regimes in which inference is ill-posed due to type-composition confounding or outcome--nuisance symmetries. Extensive experiments on synthetic data validate our theoretical predictions regarding posterior concentration rates and identifiability thresholds.
- Asia > Middle East > Jordan (0.04)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
- South America > Colombia (0.04)
- (2 more...)
When Robots Obey the Patch: Universal Transferable Patch Attacks on Vision-Language-Action Models
Lu, Hui, Yu, Yi, Yang, Yiming, Yi, Chenyu, Zhang, Qixin, Shen, Bingquan, Kot, Alex C., Jiang, Xudong
Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, yet universal and transferable attacks remain underexplored, as most existing patches overfit to a single model and fail in black-box settings. To address this gap, we present a systematic study of universal, transferable adversarial patches against VLA-driven robots under unknown architectures, finetuned variants, and sim-to-real shifts. We introduce UPA-RFAS (Universal Patch Attack via Robust Feature, Attention, and Semantics), a unified framework that learns a single physical patch in a shared feature space while promoting cross-model transfer. UPA-RFAS combines (i) a feature-space objective with an $\ell_1$ deviation prior and repulsive InfoNCE loss to induce transferable representation shifts, (ii) a robustness-augmented two-phase min-max procedure where an inner loop learns invisible sample-wise perturbations and an outer loop optimizes the universal patch against this hardened neighborhood, and (iii) two VLA-specific losses: Patch Attention Dominance to hijack text$\to$vision attention and Patch Semantic Misalignment to induce image-text mismatch without labels. Experiments across diverse VLA models, manipulation suites, and physical executions show that UPA-RFAS consistently transfers across models, tasks, and viewpoints, exposing a practical patch-based attack surface and establishing a strong baseline for future defenses.
- Information Technology > Security & Privacy (0.67)
- Government (0.49)
Evidence-Guided Schema Normalization for Temporal Tabular Reasoning
Thanga, Ashish, Dixit, Vibhu, Shankarampeta, Abhilash, Gupta, Vivek
Temporal reasoning over evolving semi-structured tables poses a challenge to current QA systems. We propose a SQL-based approach that involves (1) generating a 3NF schema from Wikipedia infoboxes, (2) generating SQL queries, and (3) query execution. Our central finding challenges model scaling assumptions: the quality of schema design has a greater impact on QA precision than model capacity. We establish three evidence-based principles: normalization that preserves context, semantic naming that reduces ambiguity, and consistent temporal anchoring. Our best configuration (Gemini 2.5 Flash schema + Gemini-2.0-Flash queries) achieves 80.39 EM, a 16.8\% improvement over the baseline (68.89 EM).
- Asia > Middle East > UAE > Abu Dhabi Emirate > Abu Dhabi (0.14)
- Europe > Gibraltar (0.04)
- North America > Barbados (0.04)
- (5 more...)