In-context learning enables transformers to adapt to new tasks from a few examples at inference time, while grokking highlights that this generalization can emerge abruptly only after prolonged training. We study task generalization and grokking in in-context learning using a Bayesian perspective, asking what enables the delayed transition from memorization to generalization. Concretely, we consider modular arithmetic tasks in which a transformer must infer a latent linear function solely from in-context examples and analyze how predictive uncertainty evolves during training. We combine approximate Bayesian techniques to estimate the posterior distribution and we study how uncertainty behaves across training and under changes in task diversity, context length, and context noise. We find that epistemic uncertainty collapses sharply when the model groks, making uncertainty a practical label-free diagnostic of generalization in transformers. Additionally, we provide theoretical support with a simplified Bayesian linear model, showing that asymptotically both delayed generalization and uncertainty peaks arise from the same underlying spectral mechanism, which links grokking time to uncertainty dynamics.

The Goldilocks phase is reminiscent of "intelligence from starvation" in Darwinian evolution, where resource limitations drivediscoveryofmore efficient solutions.

We aim to understand grokking, a phenomenon where models generalize long after overfitting their training set. We present both a microscopic analysis anchored by an effective theory and a macroscopic analysis of phase diagrams describing learning performance across hyperparameters. We find that generalization originates from structured representations, whose training dynamics and dependence on training set size can be predicted by our effective theory (in a toy setting). We observe empirically the presence of four learning phases: comprehension, grokking, memorization, and confusion. We find representation learning to occur only in a Goldilocks zone (including comprehension and grokking) between memorization and confusion. Compared to the comprehension phase, the grokking phase stays closer to the memorization phase, leading to delayed generalization. The Goldilocks phase is reminiscent of intelligence from starvation in Darwinian evolution, where resource limitations drive discovery of more efficient solutions. This study not only provides intuitive explanations of the origin of grokking, but also highlights the usefulness of physics-inspired tools, e.g., effective theories and phase diagrams, for understanding deep learning.

In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of grokking, where models exhibit delayed generalization following overfitting on training data. We focus on data-scarce regimes where the number of training samples falls below the critical threshold, making grokking unobservable, and on practical scenarios involving distribution shift. We first show that Knowledge Distillation (KD) from a model that has already grokked on a distribution (p1) can induce and accelerate grokking on a different distribution (p2), even when the available data lies below the critical threshold. This highlights the value of KD for deployed models that must adapt to new distributions under limited data. We then study training on the joint distribution (p1, p2) and demonstrate that while standard supervised training fails when either distribution has insufficient data, distilling from models grokked on the individual distributions enables generalization. Finally, we examine a continual pretraining setup, where a grokked model transitions from p1 to p2, and find that KD both accelerates generalization and mitigates catastrophic forgetting, achieving strong performance even with only 10% of the data. Together, our results provide new insights into the mechanics of grokking under knowledge transfer and underscore the central role of KD in enabling generalization in low-data and evolving distribution settings.

Grokking is the phenomenon whereby, unlike the training performance, which peaks early in the training process, the test/generalization performance of a model stagnates over arbitrarily many epochs and then suddenly jumps to usually close to perfect levels. In practice, it is desirable to reduce the length of such plateaus, that is to make the learning process "grok" faster. In this work, we provide new insights into grokking. First, we show both empirically and theoretically that grokking can be induced by asymmetric speeds of (stochastic) gradient descent, along different principal (i.e singular directions) of the gradients. We then propose a simple modification that normalizes the gradients so that dynamics along all the principal directions evolves at exactly the same speed. Then, we establish that this modified method, which we call egalitarian gradient descent (EGD) and can be seen as a carefully modified form of natural gradient descent, groks much faster. In fact, in some cases the stagnation is completely removed. Finally, we empirically show that on classical arithmetic problems such as modular addition and sparse parity problem which this stagnation has been widely observed and intensively studied, that our proposed method eliminates the plateaus.

This paper presents the first study of grokking in practical LLM pretraining. Specifically, we investigate when an LLM memorizes the training data, when its generalization on downstream tasks starts to improve, and what happens if there is a lag between the two. Unlike existing works studying when a small model generalizes to limited and specified tasks during thousands epochs' training on algorithmic data, we focus on a practical setting for LLMs, i.e., one-epoch pretraining of next-token prediction on a cross-domain, large-scale corpus, and generalization on diverse benchmark tasks covering math/commonsense reasoning, code generation, and domain-specific retrieval. Our study, for the first time, verifies that grokking still emerges in pretraining mixture-of-experts (MoE) LLMs, though different local data groups may enter their grokking stages asynchronously due to the heterogeneity of their distributions and attributions to others. To find a mechanistic interpretation of this local grokking, we investigate the dynamics of training data's pathways (i.e., expert choices across layers in MoE). Our primary discovery is that the pathways evolve from random, non-smooth across layers, instance-specific to more structured and transferable across samples, despite the converged pretraining loss. This depicts a transition from memorization to generalization. Two novel metrics are developed to quantify these patterns: one computes the pathway similarity between samples, while the other measures the consistency of aggregated experts between subsequent layers for each sample. These training data based metrics induce zero cost but can faithfully track and monitor the generalization of LLMs on downstream tasks, which, in conventional settings, requires costly instruction tuning and benchmark evaluation.

Post-hoc interpretability methods typically attribute a model's behavior to its components, data, or training trajectory in isolation. This leads to explanations that lack a unified view and may miss key interactions. While combining existing methods or applying them at different training stages offers broader insights, such approaches usually lack theoretical support. In this work, we present ExPLAIND, a unified framework that integrates all these perspectives. First, we generalize recent work on gradient path kernels, which reformulate models trained by gradient descent as a kernel machine, to realistic settings like AdamW. We empirically validate that a CNN and a Transformer are accurately replicated by this reformulation. Second, we derive novel parameter- and step-wise influence scores from the kernel feature maps. Their effectiveness for parameter pruning is comparable to existing methods, demonstrating their value for model component attribution. Finally, jointly interpreting model components and data over the training process, we leverage ExPLAIND to analyze a Transformer that exhibits Grokking. Our findings support previously proposed stages of Grokking, while refining the final phase as one of alignment of input embeddings and final layers around a representation pipeline learned after the memorization phase. Overall, ExPLAIND provides a theoretically grounded, unified framework to interpret model behavior and training dynamics.

Grokking refers to delayed generalization in which the increase in test accuracy of a neural network occurs appreciably after the improvement in training accuracy This paper introduces several practical metrics including variance under dropout, robustness, embedding similarity, and sparsity measures, that can forecast grokking behavior. Specifically, the resilience of neural networks to noise during inference is estimated from a Dropout Robustness Curve (DRC) obtained from the variation of the accuracy with the dropout rate as the model transitions from memorization to generalization. The variance of the test accuracy under stochastic dropout across training checkpoints further exhibits a local maximum during the grokking. Additionally, the percentage of inactive neurons decreases during generalization, while the embeddings tend to a bimodal distribution independent of initialization that correlates with the observed cosine similarity patterns and dataset symmetries. These metrics additionally provide valuable insight into the origin and behaviour of grokking.

Grokking refers to a delayed generalization following overfitting when optimizing artificial neural networks with gradient-based methods. In this work, we demonstrate that grokking can be induced by regularization, either explicit or implicit. More precisely, we show that when there exists a model with a property $P$ (e.g., sparse or low-rank weights) that generalizes on the problem of interest, gradient descent with a small but non-zero regularization of $P$ (e.g., $\ell_1$ or nuclear norm regularization) results in grokking. This extends previous work showing that small non-zero weight decay induces grokking. Moreover, our analysis shows that over-parameterization by adding depth makes it possible to grok or ungrok without explicitly using regularization, which is impossible in shallow cases. We further show that the $\ell_2$ norm is not a reliable proxy for generalization when the model is regularized toward a different property $P$, as the $\ell_2$ norm grows in many cases where no weight decay is used, but the model generalizes anyway. We also show that grokking can be amplified solely through data selection, with any other hyperparameter fixed.

Deep learning sometimes appears to work in unexpected ways. In pursuit of a deeper understanding of its surprising behaviors, we investigate the utility of a simple yet accurate model of a trained neural network consisting of a sequence of first-order approximations telescoping out into a single empirically operational tool for practical analysis. Across three case studies, we illustrate how it can be applied to derive new empirical insights on a diverse range of prominent phenomena in the literature -- including double descent, grokking, linear mode connectivity, and the challenges of applying deep learning on tabular data -- highlighting that this model allows us to construct and extract metrics that help predict and understand the a priori unexpected performance of neural networks. We also demonstrate that this model presents a pedagogical formalism allowing us to isolate components of the training process even in complex contemporary settings, providing a lens to reason about the effects of design choices such as architecture & optimization strategy, and reveals surprising parallels between neural network learning and gradient boosting.