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Supplementary Material and Datasheet: Off to new Shores: A Dataset & Benchmark for (near-)coastal Flood Inundation Forecasting Contents

Neural Information Processing Systems

This supplementary document follows the Datasheets for Datasets template of (8) to document the Global Flood Forecasting (GFF) dataset and its creation. Further resources are provided: in the accompanying publication https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.18591 in the GitHub repository https://github.com/Multihuntr/GFF


Physics-guided Emulators Reveal Resilience and Fragility under Operational Latencies and Outages

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reliable hydrologic and flood forecasting requires models that remain stable when input data are delayed, missing, or inconsistent. However, most advances in rainfall-runoff prediction have been evaluated under ideal data conditions, emphasizing accuracy rather than operational resilience. Here, we develop an operationally ready emulator of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) that couples long-and short-term memory networks with a relaxed water-balance constraint to preserve physical coherence. Five architectures span a continuum of information availability: from complete historical and forecast forcings to scenarios with data latency and outages, allowing systematic evaluation of robustness. Trained in minimally managed catchments across the United States and tested in more than 5,000 basins, including heavily regulated rivers in India, the emulator reproduces the hydrological core of GloFAS and degrades smoothly as information quality declines. The framework establishes operational robustness as a measurable property of hydrological machine learning and advances the design of reliable real-time forecasting systems. Catchment response to precipitation varies in space and time with climate, storage dynamics, and human regulation, making reliable prediction dependent on both data availability and model adaptability [3, 4]. Although advances in observations, reanalysis products, and computational methods have expanded predictive capability [5-9], translating this progress into forecasting systems that operate continuously and robustly in real time remains unresolved. Operational forecasting requires models that sustain accuracy and physical realism when input data are asynchronous, incomplete, or inconsistent with the conditions used for training, and that can do so with limited human intervention [10-12].


Supplementary Material and Datasheet: Off to new Shores: A Dataset & Benchmark for (near-)coastal Flood Inundation Forecasting Contents

Neural Information Processing Systems

This supplementary document follows the Datasheets for Datasets template of (8) to document the Global Flood Forecasting (GFF) dataset and its creation. Further resources are provided: in the accompanying publication https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.18591 in the GitHub repository https://github.com/Multihuntr/GFF


AI Increases Global Access to Reliable Flood Forecasts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed. Using AI, we achieve reliability in predicting extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds at up to a 5-day lead time that is similar to or better than the reliability of nowcasts (0-day lead time) from a current state of the art global modeling system (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System). Additionally, we achieve accuracies over 5-year return period events that are similar to or better than current accuracies over 1-year return period events. This means that AI can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins. The model developed in this paper was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings.