This Perspective explores the transformative potential of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) in the geosciences. Users of geoscientific data repositories face challenges due to the complexity and diversity of data formats, inconsistent metadata practices, and a considerable number of unprocessed datasets. MAS possesses transformative potential for improving scientists' interaction with geoscientific data by enabling intelligent data processing, natural language interfaces, and collaborative problem-solving capabilities. We illustrate this approach with "PANGAEA GPT", a specialized MAS pipeline integrated with the diverse PANGAEA database for Earth and Environmental Science, demonstrating how MAS-driven workflows can effectively manage complex datasets and accelerate scientific discovery. We discuss how MAS can address current data challenges in geosciences, highlight advancements in other scientific fields, and propose future directions for integrating MAS into geoscientific data processing pipelines. In this Perspective, we show how MAS can fundamentally improve data accessibility, promote cross-disciplinary collaboration, and accelerate geoscientific discoveries.

High-resolution spatiotemporal simulations effectively capture the complexities of atmospheric plume dispersion in complex terrain. However, their high computational cost makes them impractical for applications requiring rapid responses or iterative processes, such as optimization, uncertainty quantification, or inverse modeling. To address this challenge, this work introduces the Dual-Stage Temporal Three-dimensional UNet Super-resolution (DST3D-UNet-SR) model, a highly efficient deep learning model for plume dispersion prediction. DST3D-UNet-SR is composed of two sequential modules: the temporal module (TM), which predicts the transient evolution of a plume in complex terrain from low-resolution temporal data, and the spatial refinement module (SRM), which subsequently enhances the spatial resolution of the TM predictions. We train DST3DUNet- SR using a comprehensive dataset derived from high-resolution large eddy simulations (LES) of plume transport. We propose the DST3D-UNet-SR model to significantly accelerate LES simulations of three-dimensional plume dispersion by three orders of magnitude. Additionally, the model demonstrates the ability to dynamically adapt to evolving conditions through the incorporation of new observational data, substantially improving prediction accuracy in high-concentration regions near the source. Keywords: Atmospheric sciences, Geosciences, Plume transport,3D temporal sequences, Artificial intelligence, CNN, LSTM, Autoencoder, Autoregressive model, U-Net, Super-resolution, Spatial Refinement.

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) represents an emerging field that promises the creation of synthetic data and outputs in different modalities. GAI has recently shown impressive results across a large spectrum of applications ranging from biology, medicine, education, legislation, computer science, and finance. As one strives for enhanced safety, efficiency, and sustainability, generative AI indeed emerges as a key differentiator and promises a paradigm shift in the field. This paper explores the potential applications of generative AI and large language models in geoscience. The recent developments in the field of machine learning and deep learning have enabled the generative model's utility for tackling diverse prediction problems, simulation, and multi-criteria decision-making challenges related to geoscience and Earth system dynamics. This survey discusses several GAI models that have been used in geoscience comprising generative adversarial networks (GANs), physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), and generative pre-trained transformer (GPT)-based structures. These tools have helped the geoscience community in several applications, including (but not limited to) data generation/augmentation, super-resolution, panchromatic sharpening, haze removal, restoration, and land surface changing. Some challenges still remain such as ensuring physical interpretation, nefarious use cases, and trustworthiness. Beyond that, GAI models show promises to the geoscience community, especially with the support to climate change, urban science, atmospheric science, marine science, and planetary science through their extraordinary ability to data-driven modeling and uncertainty quantification.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved huge success for their general knowledge and ability to solve a wide spectrum of tasks in natural language processing (NLP). Due to their impressive abilities, LLMs have shed light on potential inter-discipline applications to foster scientific discoveries of a specific domain by using artificial intelligence (AI for science, AI4S). In the meantime, utilizing NLP techniques in geoscience research and practice is wide and convoluted, contributing from knowledge extraction and document classification to question answering and knowledge discovery. In this work, we take the initial step to leverage LLM for science, through a rather straightforward approach. We try to specialize an LLM into geoscience, by further pre-training the model with a vast amount of texts in geoscience, as well as supervised fine-tuning (SFT) the resulting model with our custom collected instruction tuning dataset. These efforts result in a model GeoGalactica consisting of 30 billion parameters. To our best knowledge, it is the largest language model for the geoscience domain. More specifically, GeoGalactica is from further pre-training of Galactica. We train GeoGalactica over a geoscience-related text corpus containing 65 billion tokens curated from extensive data sources in the big science project Deep-time Digital Earth (DDE), preserving as the largest geoscience-specific text corpus. Then we fine-tune the model with 1 million pairs of instruction-tuning data consisting of questions that demand professional geoscience knowledge to answer. In this technical report, we will illustrate in detail all aspects of GeoGalactica, including data collection, data cleaning, base model selection, pre-training, SFT, and evaluation. We open-source our data curation tools and the checkpoints of GeoGalactica during the first 3/4 of pre-training.

Process-Based Modeling (PBM) and Machine Learning (ML) are often perceived as distinct paradigms in the geosciences. Here we present differentiable geoscientific modeling as a powerful pathway toward dissolving the perceived barrier between them and ushering in a paradigm shift. For decades, PBM offered benefits in interpretability and physical consistency but struggled to efficiently leverage large datasets. ML methods, especially deep networks, presented strong predictive skills yet lacked the ability to answer specific scientific questions. While various methods have been proposed for ML-physics integration, an important underlying theme -- differentiable modeling -- is not sufficiently recognized. Here we outline the concepts, applicability, and significance of differentiable geoscientific modeling (DG). "Differentiable" refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables, critically enabling the learning of high-dimensional unknown relationships. DG refers to a range of methods connecting varying amounts of prior knowledge to neural networks and training them together, capturing a different scope than physics-guided machine learning and emphasizing first principles. Preliminary evidence suggests DG offers better interpretability and causality than ML, improved generalizability and extrapolation capability, and strong potential for knowledge discovery, while approaching the performance of purely data-driven ML. DG models require less training data while scaling favorably in performance and efficiency with increasing amounts of data. With DG, geoscientists may be better able to frame and investigate questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized linkages.

This paper describes and discusses our vision to develop and reason about best practices and novel ways of curating data-centric geosciences knowledge (data, experiments, models, methods, conclusions, and interpretations). This knowledge is produced from applying statistical modelling, Machine Learning, and modern data analytics methods on geo-data collections. The problems address open methodological questions in model building, models' assessment, prediction, and forecasting workflows.

Methods of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) are used in geoscientific applications to gain insights into the decision-making strategy of Neural Networks (NNs) highlighting which features in the input contribute the most to a NN prediction. Here, we discuss our lesson learned that the task of attributing a prediction to the input does not have a single solution. Instead, the attribution results and their interpretation depend greatly on the considered baseline (sometimes referred to as reference point) that the XAI method utilizes; a fact that has been overlooked so far in the literature. This baseline can be chosen by the user or it is set by construction in the method s algorithm, often without the user being aware of that choice. We highlight that different baselines can lead to different insights for different science questions and, thus, should be chosen accordingly. To illustrate the impact of the baseline, we use a large ensemble of historical and future climate simulations forced with the SSP3-7.0 scenario and train a fully connected NN to predict the ensemble- and global-mean temperature (i.e., the forced global warming signal) given an annual temperature map from an individual ensemble member. We then use various XAI methods and different baselines to attribute the network predictions to the input. We show that attributions differ substantially when considering different baselines, as they correspond to answering different science questions. We conclude by discussing some important implications and considerations about the use of baselines in XAI research.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have recently attracted great attention in geoscience due to their ability to capture non-linear system behavior and extract predictive spatiotemporal patterns. Given their black-box nature however, and the importance of prediction explainability, methods of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) are gaining popularity as a means to explain the CNN decision-making strategy. Here, we establish an intercomparison of some of the most popular XAI methods and investigate their fidelity in explaining CNN decisions for geoscientific applications. Our goal is to raise awareness of the theoretical limitations of these methods and gain insight into the relative strengths and weaknesses to help guide best practices. The considered XAI methods are first applied to an idealized attribution benchmark, where the ground truth of explanation of the network is known a priori, to help objectively assess their performance. Secondly, we apply XAI to a climate-related prediction setting, namely to explain a CNN that is trained to predict the number of atmospheric rivers in daily snapshots of climate simulations. Our results highlight several important issues of XAI methods (e.g., gradient shattering, inability to distinguish the sign of attribution, ignorance to zero input) that have previously been overlooked in our field and, if not considered cautiously, may lead to a distorted picture of the CNN decision-making strategy. We envision that our analysis will motivate further investigation into XAI fidelity and will help towards a cautious implementation of XAI in geoscience, which can lead to further exploitation of CNNs and deep learning for prediction problems.

A bird's eye view of the AI application in all spectrum of geosciences is provided. The mandatory modular steps of typical Earth AI workflows are summarized. Twelve grand challenges in Earth AI and potential opportunities are introduced. In recent years, Earth system sciences are urgently calling for innovation on improving accuracy, enhancing model intelligence level, scaling up operation, and reducing costs in many subdomains amid the exponentially accumulated datasets and the promising artificial intelligence (AI) revolution in computer science. This paper presents work led by the NASA Earth Science Data Systems Working Groups and ESIP machine learning cluster to give a comprehensive overview of AI in Earth sciences. It holistically introduces the current status, technology, use cases, challenges, and opportunities, and provides all the levels of AI practitioners in geosciences with an overall big picture and to “blow away the fog to get a clearer vision” about the future development of Earth AI.

Neural networks have become increasingly prevalent within the geosciences for applications ranging from numerical model parameterizations to the prediction of extreme weather. A common limitation of neural networks has been the lack of methods to interpret what the networks learn and how they make decisions. As such, neural networks have typically been used within the geosciences to accurately identify a desired output given a set of inputs, with the interpretation of what the network learns being used - if used at all - as a secondary metric to ensure the network is making the right decision for the right reason. Network interpretation techniques have become more advanced in recent years, however, and we therefore propose that the ultimate objective of using a neural network can also be the interpretation of what the network has learned rather than the output itself. We show that the interpretation of a neural network can enable the discovery of scientifically meaningful connections within geoscientific data. By training neural networks to use one or more components of the earth system to identify another, interpretation methods can be used to gain scientific insights into how and why the two components are related. In particular, we use two methods for neural network interpretation. These methods project the decision pathways of a network back onto the original input dimensions, and are called "optimal input" and layerwise relevance propagation (LRP). We then show how these interpretation techniques can be used to reliably infer scientifically meaningful information from neural networks by applying them to common climate patterns. These results suggest that combining interpretable neural networks with novel scientific hypotheses will open the door to many new avenues in neural network-related geoscience research.