We study minimal attention-only transformers under all-token corruption and show they admit a two-stage empirical Bayes interpretation. A single attention step computes a kernel-weighted posterior mean with respect to the empirical distribution defined by the context. Depth refines this distribution through particle dynamics (Stage 1), while a long-range skip-connection carries the noisy input as a query for posterior inference (Stage 2), revealing distinct statistical roles for depth and attention residuals. The framework isolates a minimal setting in which the context itself induces a depth-dependent energy landscape governing in-context inference. We show that effective denoising can emerge without an explicit noise schedule: a fixed kernel bandwidth and finite integration horizon suffice, yielding a principled depth-noise relationship. We further establish a posterior-mean recovery guarantee for a class of well-behaved priors, where the empirical estimator converges to the Bayes-optimal predictor under asymptotic conditions. Connecting these dynamics to reverse-diffusion limits, our results provide a statistical interpretation of attention as in-context inference via sample-based posterior estimation, without explicit density modeling.

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) selects experiments to maximize information gain about model parameters. However, in decision-critical settings, reducing parameter uncertainty does not necessarily improve downstream decisions, as only specific parameter directions relevant to the objective truly matter. We propose GoBOED, a goal-driven BOED framework that directly optimizes experimental designs for a specified decision-making objective. GoBOED combines an amortized variational posterior surrogate with a differentiable convex decision layer, enabling gradient-based design optimization that is fully decision-focused. We theoretically show that GoBOED gradients are insensitive to parameter directions irrelevant to the decision objective, providing a formal justification for why goal-driven design achieves equivalent decision quality over a wider set of experimental designs than information-gain maximization. Empirically, across source localization, epidemic management, and pharmacokinetic control, GoBOED identifies designs that better align with downstream decision objectives and reveals that near-optimal design windows are substantially wider than those predicted by goal-agnostic BOED approaches.

We develop a gradient flow on the space of probability measures defined on matrix-valued parameters induced by regularized Muon, an analytically smoothed version of the idealized Muon optimizer. The key observation is that the regularized orthogonalization map is the gradient of a smooth Fenchel-dual smoothing of the nuclear norm. This identifies the (regularized) Muon update as a mirror/prox step in the update variable, with momentum acting as the dual coordinate. We use this structure to lift Muon from a single matrix parameter to finite-particle probability objectives of the form $J(ρ)=R\left(\int F d ρ\right)$, a setting motivated by mean-field descriptions of neural-network training, and derive the inertial continuous-time limit. Using this structure, we derive the finite-particle continuous-time limit under the inertial scaling of step size and momentum, and then pass to a phase-space mean-field equation over probability laws on parameter-momentum pairs. The resulting flow can be shown to be a damped Hamiltonian probability dynamics whose kinetic energy is induced by the regularized Muon mirror potential. We prove an exact Hamiltonian dissipation identity, showing that the Hamiltonian energy decreases monotonically. While the target objective itself need not be monotone along the inertial Muon dynamics, under additional gradient-dominance, bounded-momentum, and curvature/alignment assumptions, we obtain continuous and discrete-time exponential convergence rates for the objective gap. We also study the well-posedness of the mean-field limit equation and establish propagation of chaos guarantees for the interacting particle system. Finally, we extend the formulation to Hilbert-valued feature maps on product matrix spaces, yielding a blockwise Muon probability flow applicable to smooth transformer mixture-of-experts models.

We propose a new framework for generative modeling based on a discrete-time stochastic control formulation of measure transport. Adapting classic results from control theory, we formulate our problem as a linear program whose dual variables correspond to the \emph{optimal value function} of the control problem, which directly encodes the optimal control policy. Exploiting this LP formulation, we develop an efficient simulation-free primal-dual algorithm for computing approximately optimal value functions and the associated \emph{value-driven transport} (VDT) policies which approximate the true optimal policy. We show that well-trained VDT policies enjoy numerous favorable properties in comparison with other state-of-the-art methods based on flows, diffusions, or Schrödinger bridges: they lead to straight transport paths which can be simulated quickly and robustly, and can be enhanced in all the same ways as diffusion and flow-based models (e.g., conditional generation, classifier-free guidance, unpaired data-to-data translation are all easy to incorporate). We evaluate our methodology in a range of experiments, with results that indicate strong performance and good potential for scalability.

Representation Autoencoders (RAE) replace traditional VAE with pretrained vision encoders. In this paper, we systematically investigate several design choices and find three insights which simplify and improve RAE. First, we study a generalized formulation where the representation is defined as sum of the last k encoder layers rather than solely the final layer. This simple change greatly improves reconstruction without encoder finetuning or specialized data (e.g., text, faces). Second, we study the prevalent assumption that RAE (using pretrained representation as encoder) replaces representation alignment (REPA), which distills the same representation to intermediate layers instead. Through large-scale empirical analysis, we uncover a surprising finding: RAE and REPA exhibit complementary working mechanisms, allowing the same representation to be used as both encoder and target for intermediate diffusion layers. Finally, the original RAE struggles with classifier-free guidance (CFG) and requires training a second, weaker diffusion model for AutoGuidance (AG). We show that REPA itself can be viewed as x-prediction in RAE latent space. By simply re-parameterizing the output of the DiT model, it can provide guidance for "free". Overall, RAEv2 leads to more than 10x faster convergence over the original RAE, achieving a state-of-the-art gFID of 1.06 in just 80 epochs on ImageNet-256. On FDr^k, RAEv2 achieves a state-of-the-art 2.17 at just 80 epochs compared to the previous best 3.26 (800 epochs) without any post-training. This motivates EP_FID@k (epochs to reach unguided gFID <= k) as a measure of training efficiency. RAEv2 attains an EP_FID@2 of 35 epochs, versus 177 for the original RAE. We also validate our approach across diverse settings for text-to-image generation and navigation world models, showing consistent improvements. Code is available at https://raev2.github.io.

Despite the growing availability of large datasets, causal structure learning remains computationally prohibitive at scale. We revisit sparsest-permutation learning for linear structural equation models and show that exact Cholesky factorization is unnecessary for structure recovery. This observation motivates a support-level relaxation that searches for sparse triangular factors over a precision-support screening graph. The relaxed formulation can be efficiently evaluated via masked zero-fill incomplete Cholesky factorization, enabling scalable comparison of candidate orderings. At the population level, we establish soundness for Markov equivalence class (MEC) recovery under no-cancellation and sparsest Markov representation assumptions, as well as robustness to ordering misspecification. Motivated by these guarantees, we introduce SCOPE, a sparse-Cholesky pipeline that provides a scalable implementation of the relaxed formulation. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that SCOPE matches the MEC recovery accuracy of substantially slower baselines, while achieving significantly reduced runtime and scaling to 10k variables.

Robust uncertainty quantification is increasingly important in modern data analysis and is often formalized under Huber's model, which allows an $\varepsilon$-fraction of arbitrary corruptions. In many experimental sciences, however, the measurement protocol is well controlled, and contamination is more plausibly introduced upstream. Motivated by this noise-oblivious nature of adversaries, we study confidence intervals for the null location parameter $θ$ in Efron's Gaussian two-groups model, where an unknown fraction $\varepsilon$ of observations have arbitrarily shifted means, but all samples share the same law of additive Gaussian measurement noise with variance $σ^2$. We characterize the minimax-optimal length among confidence intervals with a prescribed coverage level uniformly over the unknown contamination proportion and all noise-oblivious adversaries. Although prior work has shown that the minimax point estimation rate of theta does not deteriorate when $\varepsilon$ becomes unknown, our results reveal that, with a given $σ^2$, the minimax-optimal length of confidence intervals that are adaptive to unknown $\varepsilon$ is of order $σ(n^{-1/4}+\varepsilon^{1/2}/\max\{1, \log(en \varepsilon^2)\}^{1/2})$, which is polynomially worse than the optimal length when $\varepsilon$ is known. When the variance $σ^2$ is also unknown, we show a further degradation: no adaptive confidence interval can be shorter than $Ω(σn^{-1/8})$. Algorithmically, we introduce a Fourier-based certification procedure built on Carathéodory's positive-semidefiniteness constraints. By scanning candidate points and accepting those whose residual characteristic function is certifiably consistent with a Gaussian location mixture, our algorithm attains the minimax lower bound in the known-variance setting and is computable in polynomial time.

We study the deterministic global optimization of trained Gaussian process posterior mean functions over hyperrectangular domains. Although the posterior mean function has a compact closed-form representation, its global optimization is challenging because it remains nonlinear and nonconvex. Existing exact deterministic approaches become increasingly difficult to scale as the number of training data points grows, leading to approximation-based methods that improve tractability by optimizing a modified (inexact) objective. In this work, we propose PALM-Mean, a piecewise-analytic lower-bounding framework embedded in reduced-space spatial branch-and-bound. At each node, kernel terms that are locally important are replaced by a sign-aware piecewise-linear relaxation in an appropriate scalar distance variable, while the remaining terms are bounded analytically in closed form. We show this hybrid approach yields a valid lower bound for the posterior mean, while limiting the size of the branch-and-bound subproblems. We establish validity of the node lower bounds and $\varepsilon$-global convergence of the resulting algorithm. Computational results on synthetic benchmarks and real-world application problems show that PALM-Mean improves scalability relative to representative general-purpose deterministic global solvers, particularly as the number of training data points increases.

An important problem in sequential decision-making under uncertainty is to use limited data to compute a safe policy, which is guaranteed to outperform a given baseline strategy. In this paper, we develop and analyze a new model-based approach that computes a safe policy, given an inaccurate model of the system's dynamics and guarantees on the accuracy of this model. The new robust method uses this model to directly minimize the (negative) regret w.r.t. the baseline policy. Contrary to existing approaches, minimizing the regret allows one to improve the baseline policy in states with accurate dynamics and to seamlessly fall back to the baseline policy, otherwise. We show that our formulation is NP-hard and propose a simple approximate algorithm. Our empirical results on several domains further show that even the simple approximate algorithm can outperform standard approaches.